Agriculture: problems and development prospects. Development prospects with. - NS. Science Problems and prospects of development of agriculture

Introduction

Agriculture today employs half of the world's population, but its role differs significantly in different countries of the world.

In some developing countries, such as Nepal, about 90 percent of the population works on the land. By comparison, in industrialized countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, only 2-3 percent of the working-age population is employed on farms. Nevertheless, thanks to highly efficient technologies that use the latest advances in spiders, the United States is a leading exporter of food.

In developing countries, most of the people are engaged in subsistence farming. They produce enough food just for the needs of their family, and they have almost nothing left to sell. In developed countries, most of the farms are commercial. In developing countries, there are tribes, such as the pygmies of Central Africa and the Bushmen of the Kalahari Desert, who to this day are engaged in hunting and gathering, leading a lifestyle that is almost no different from that that prevailed on our planet before the advent of agriculture.

The abstract consists of seven points. It examines such issues as general concepts of agriculture, its economic role; differences between agriculture in developed countries and agriculture in developing countries; considered agriculture in the USA, Great Britain, and also in Ukraine. It also considered the issue of development prospects and current trends in world agriculture.

Basic concepts of agricultural production and its economic role

Agriculture is a sector of the country's economy that produces agricultural products that meet the needs for most food products and raw materials for textiles, footwear, perfumery, Food Industry... Agriculture includes crops, livestock, hunting, forestry and fishing.

Agriculture is aimed at providing the population with food and obtaining raw materials for a number of industries. The industry is one of the most important in almost all countries of the world. World agriculture employs about 1.1 billion of the economically active population. With problems Agriculture sciences are directly or indirectly related, such as agronomy, animal husbandry, land reclamation, crop production, forestry and other sciences.

There are about 50 different types of agriculture, which are combined into 2 groups: commodity and consumer.

Commercial agriculture includes both intensive farming and animal husbandry, horticulture and horticulture, as well as extensive fallow and fallow farming and grazing.

Consumer agriculture includes the more backward plow and hoe farming, grazing, nomadic pastoralism, and gathering, hunting and fishing.

V developed countries high-commodity, deeply specialized agriculture prevails. It has reached the maximum possible level of mechanization and chemicalization. The average yield in these countries is 35-40 centners per hectare. The agro-industrial complex in them has acquired the form of agribusiness, which gives the industry an industrial character.

In developing countries, the traditional consumer economy prevails with an average grain yield of 15-20 centners per hectare and below. The consumer sector is represented by small and small farms that grow consumer crops; along with this there is also a highly commercial economy, represented by large and well-organized plantations (banana plantations in Central America, coffee in Brazil).

2. Agriculture in developed and developing countries

Agriculture in developed countries is characterized by a sharp predominance of commercial agriculture. It develops on the basis of mechanization, chemicalization of production, the use of biotechnology, and the latest selection methods.

Technical re-equipment and intensification of production have led to an increase in the share of large farms with narrow specialization. At the same time, agriculture is industrial in nature, since it is included in a single agro-industrial complex with processing, storage, transportation and marketing of products, as well as the production of fertilizers and equipment (the so-called agribusiness).

Agriculture in developing countries is more heterogeneous and includes:

> traditional sector - consumer agriculture, mainly crop-growing, with small peasant farms providing themselves with food;

> modern sector - commercial agriculture with well-organized plantations and farms, using the best land and hired labor, using modern technology, fertilizers, the main products of which are aimed at the foreign market.

The high share of the traditional sector in the agriculture of developing countries determines their significant lag in the development of this industry.

3. Plant growing and animal husbandry

Crop production is developed in almost all natural zones of the world, except for the tundra, arctic deserts and high mountains. The modern level of development of technology, the development of new varieties allow expanding the boundaries of the placement of individual crops.

World cereal production reached 1.9 billion tons per hectare and continues to grow. The largest grain producers are China, the USA, India and Russia, which account for about 54% of the gross grain harvest in the world. Other large grain producers are France, Canada, Ukraine, Indonesia, Brazil.

Wheat was known in the states of Southwest Asia as early as 6-5 thousand BC. It is currently grown in 70 countries. The predominant part of the gross tax falls on China, the USA, India, Russia, and France. Specialized areas of wheat farming were formed in the USA, Canada, Australia, as well as in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

Major wheat exporters include: USA, Canada, France, Australia; rice - Thailand and the USA; corn - Argentina and the United States.

Vegetable crops are widespread in all countries of the world, but they have limited areas, usually tied to cities. Vegetable farming is currently the leading branch of the so-called suburban agriculture. It is highly intensive and uses the latest technologies in the field of agriculture. Among tuber crops, the leading role belongs to potatoes. The homeland of potatoes is Latin America, but at present the largest collection of potatoes is in Europe, India, China and the United States. The main potato producing countries are Poland, Russia, China, Ukraine, Germany, USA, India, Belarus, the Netherlands.

Sugar-bearing crops are represented by sugar cane (it is cultivated in tropical, subtropical and monsoon climates) and sugar beet (grown in the temperate zone). The main sugarcane producers are Brazil, India, Cuba, China; sugar beet - Ukraine, France, Russia, Poland, USA. Basically, the product of international trade is raw cane sugar, the traffic of which is directed from Brazil, Cuba, Australia to Foreign Europe, the USA, the CIS countries, China, Japan and the newly industrialized countries of Asia.

The main exporter of tea is India, coffee is Brazil, cocoa is Ivory Coast.

Cotton growing is concentrated in nine large regions:

East, Southeast and South Asia (China, India, Pakistan, Thailand);

Central Asia and Transcaucasia (Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan);

Southwest Asia (Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan);

North and North-East Africa (Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania);

West and Central Africa (Nigeria, Zaire);

South Africa (Mozambique, Madagascar);

North America (USA, Mexico);

South America (Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela);

Australia.

The main exporters of cotton are: USA, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, China, India, Egypt.

Natural rubber (Hevea) is common in South and Southeast Asia. These countries account for more than 90% of world production. Main producing and exporting countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, Philippines.

The largest tobacco producer is China; India, Brazil, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey, Cuba, and Japan produce it in much smaller volumes.

Livestock raising.

The bulk of livestock production comes from countries located in the temperate zone.

The location of livestock industries directly depends on the fodder base, i.e., on the procurement of succulent fodder, dry fodder (including feed grain) and silage.

Livestock is the leading branch of agriculture in most countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Livestock raising includes cattle, pigs, sheep, mules, poultry farming, beekeeping, silkworm breeding.

Livestock raising is subdivided into branches according to livestock types. There are three leading industries: cattle breeding, pig breeding, sheep breeding.

Cattle breeding - breeding of cattle (cattle), gives the largest volume of production.

The largest livestock of cattle among the countries of the world is possessed by: India, Brazil, USA, China, Russia, Argentina.

Fishing is almost ubiquitous; production of fish and seafood reached 100 million tons per year. More than 1/2 of all world catches come from 6 countries - Japan, China, Russia, USA, Chile and Peru. Recently, artificial fish farming, or aquaculture, has been increasingly developing. Fish farming is most typical for China and Japan.

4. Agricultural production in the USA

The US population is about 300 million. Approximately 22 million people are employed in the production, processing, transportation and sale of agricultural goods and food. Including, 4.6 million of them work directly on the ground.

V last years in the United States, “Community Supported Agriculture” is gaining popularity. The essence of this system is as follows: residents of settlements agree to purchase certain products from local farmers. To do this, they annually make a certain contribution to the budget of the farm (s), thus sharing the risks associated with the process of agricultural production. In return, they get the opportunity to buy vegetables, milk, etc. at significantly reduced prices. Today in the USA, about 1.5 thousand farms are participating in such programs.

Today, the United States is the largest exporter of food products in the world. In 2006, according to the Department of Commerce, the volume of agricultural exports was $ 69 billion (this is about a quarter of the income of all US agricultural enterprises in the past year). 36% of exports are grain, oilseeds, cotton and tobacco. On average, the United States exports $ 6 million worth of agricultural products every hour. Exports make it possible to provide jobs for more than 1 million people. Among various export items, agricultural products are ranked fifth (until the end of the 1960s, they were first).

In the United States and many other countries around the world, subsidizing national agriculture is carried out in two main ways. On the one hand, peasants can receive checks or direct money orders from the state treasury. On the other hand, the state makes it difficult for similar products manufactured by foreign competitors to enter its market, as a result, end consumers are forced to overpay to domestic producers. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the lowest government subsidies are received by farmers in New Zealand (they receive only 2% of their income from the state) and Australia (4%). For the United States, this figure is 16%, for Canada - 22%. The countries of the European Union provide 32% of the income of their peasants. In this case, Switzerland has set a record - 68%.

There are many unsolved problems in the agricultural sector. The number of unprofitable farms does not decrease, and the level of use of agricultural land remains low for a long time. The industry has the lowest wage, rather weak social protection of the rural population in comparison with other sectors of the economy. An equally important problem is the renewal of the machine and tractor fleet of farms, the implementation of technological reorientation to modern resource-saving technologies for the production of competitive products. There are too many unresolved problems in animal husbandry. There is a shortage of meat and dairy products in the country, and a significant amount of produced livestock products do not find sales channels due to their low quality and insufficient paying capacity of the population.

To ensure the further development of the agrarian sector of the state, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in 2007 approved the State Target Program for the Development of the Ukrainian Village for the Period until 2015.The main goal of the program is to ensure the vital activity of agriculture, its competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets, to ensure the country's food security, to create conditions for integrated development of rural areas, preservation of the rural way of life and the population as the bearer of Ukrainian identity, culture and spirituality. At the same time, it is not the economic paradigm of management that is brought to the fore, but the person, the provision of normal conditions for her life.

The low efficiency of modern agrarian policy, primarily land and budget, is the most important cause of the rural crisis. A very big problem is the imperfection of mechanisms, distribution of both land resources and agricultural and social budgets. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that state subsidies are only a means of supporting agricultural development, and not its main source. The main attention should be focused on attracting investment, primarily domestic, in the agricultural sector, on improving the overall investment climate in the country.

The strategic task of the state agrarian policy in the economic sphere is, first of all, the formation of an effective competitive agro-industrial production capable of ensuring the country's food security and increasing exports. certain types agricultural products and food. The basis for increasing production efficiency and agricultural incomes is the growth of the technological level of agricultural production, the introduction of resource-saving and environmentally friendly technologies as a result of supporting relevant research and the introduction of a consulting system in agriculture.

Directly in agriculture, to stop the decline in production, it is urgently required:

• - Carry out financial recovery;
• - To accelerate the development and implementation of new management mechanisms;
• - Creation of state food funds;
• - Organize a specialized financial system servicing agricultural producers;
• - To restore the insurance system in agriculture.

At the state level, it is necessary to support the technological re-equipment of the processing industry, to introduce simplified processes as a result of the use of imported equipment. This will accelerate the development of market infrastructure and improve the competitiveness of products in the domestic market.

The development of the market for agricultural products and foodstuffs should be determined by the level of profitability of agricultural production, the rate of formation of the market infrastructure, the development of interregional relations and improvement organizational structures in the field of promoting products from manufacturer to consumer.

It is necessary to gradually develop and implement targeted product programs at the state and regional levels. First, this work needs to be launched by local authorities. The state program should be aimed at organizing interregional exchange and supporting the commodity production of the regions with the aim of their self-sufficiency.

Insurance coverage of agricultural production is an important element of the system of financial and credit support of the agricultural sector. Despite this, the insurance market in the agricultural sector remains less developed, due to a number of reasons.

The main criteria for the development of the agricultural insurance system should be: transparency and trust between the participants in the insurance system, the ability to take into account the interests of all its participants in the development of new insurance products; voluntariness of participation in the insurance system, subject to the regulation of the actions of the participants in the system and control by the state when providing state support; economic feasibility of activities in the agricultural insurance market for private insurance companies; efficient use of state resources to support agricultural insurance.

To improve the management of agriculture, then the efforts of state structures should be aimed at:

• * Formation of a rural management system close to EU standards.
• * Development of a network of professional and interprofessional associations with the appropriate powers to protect and balance the interests of their founders and the release of executive authorities from functions unusual for them.
• * Determination of the authorized government body on the development of rural areas.
• * Direction of the activities of executive authorities to improve strategic analysis, forecasting, monitoring and implementation of control functions.

Based on the above, we can conclude: as a result of reforming the agrarian sector of the economy, the economic efficiency of production in the agro-industrial complex increases, its credit, investment and innovative attractiveness increases, which ultimately will become a decisive condition for ensuring the successful development of rural areas, the production of competitive products, not only for protection the domestic market, but also to enter the foreign market with it, the development of European economic standards.

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Posted on http:// www. allbest. ru/

on the course "Fundamentals of Economics"

on the topic: "Agriculture - problems and development prospects"

INTRODUCTION

1. STATE OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE

2. WAYS TO OVERCOME THE AIC CRISIS

3. TRENDS OF WORLD AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHY

INTRODUCTION

The relevance of the work is explained by the urgent need to revive Russian agriculture after the destructive reforms of the transition period and the globalization of the problems of world agriculture.

Agriculture is one of the backbone sectors of the economy of any country. Regardless of the soil and climatic conditions, even the most developed industrial countries are investing very large sums of money in the development of domestic agriculture. The land available in the country is a huge productive force given by Nature free of charge.

The crisis in agriculture and the decline in its production immediately dealt a heavy blow to the entire economy, since it leads to the loss of a huge amount of free natural resources, and these losses have to be paid for when importing food.

The purpose of this work is to identify problems and try to outline the prospects for the development of Russian and world agriculture.

1. STATE OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is an important part of the Russian economy. 13% of fixed assets, 14% of labor resources are concentrated here, about 6% of GDP is produced.

Despite the problems associated with the planned management of the national economy, on the eve of the reform, Russia was one of the world's largest agricultural producers. Its agro-industrial complex (AIC) was relatively developed and played a large role in the country's economy.

Most of the territory of Russia lies in the zone of risky farming. In large areas, yields fluctuate greatly depending on weather conditions. Nevertheless, until the radical reform started in 1988, the agriculture of the RSFSR developed at a high and stable pace. This is evidenced by objective indicators that do not depend on ideological assessments. The population of Russia in relation to the world community did not even reach 3%, but the agricultural sector of Russia produced 5.7% of the world volume of meat and grain, 10.3% of milk, 7.6% of eggs. At the same time, Russia was ahead of many countries not only in terms of production, but also in terms of the most objective indicator - production per capita. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in the not very best 1990, domestic agriculture, which had not yet entered the period of reforms, produced 1.7 times more grain per capita than in the EU countries, potatoes - 1 , 6 times, milk - 1.2 times, eggs - 2.3 times. Only for meat production per capita was lower by 17% and for vegetables - 2 times. In terms of the growth rate of food production, the country surpassed many developed countries. For example, over three decades (1960-1990), for every 1% of population growth, there was 3% of food growth.

However, due to the weakness of the most important and necessary component - the sphere of processing, storage, transportation and sale, annually producing a huge amount of products in state and collective farms, the country in the “field-counter” chain lost up to 30% of grain, 60% of potatoes, 10% of meat , 15% milk. Consequently, the main causes of food difficulties were mainly outside the actual agricultural production.

Nevertheless, numerous studies and evaluations have shown that it was in the 1970s-1980s. The agro-industrial complex of Russia began to lag more and more noticeably behind the advanced countries of the world.

The reforms led to a severe crisis in all agriculture - both crop and livestock production.

The reforms meant a revolutionary change in the organization of agricultural production and its relationship with related industries, consumers and the state. The reforms changed the social structure of Russia in terms of agriculture and the entire life order of the Russian countryside.

The beginning of the transition to a market economy necessitated a complete revision of the principles, methods and forms of state intervention in the agricultural sector in order to create conditions in this sector of the economy for the development of entrepreneurial activity, improve the provision of food to the population and increase their living standards.

In 1990, the exclusive monopoly of state ownership of land, introduced in 1917, ceased to exist. However, in terms of their consequences for the agro-industrial complex of Russia, the reforms of the 90s turned out to be much more radical and destructive than similar ones in 1917.The main reason for this was the desire of the democratic government to solve not so much economic as political problems, not so much the construction of some new economic structures and mechanisms how many scrapping and liquidation of those that existed. The reorganization of collective and state farms, the development of entrepreneurship, and the creation of conditions for attracting foreign investment to the agricultural sector were put forward as the primary goals of the agrarian reform.

It is characteristic that the transition from exclusively state-cooperative land ownership, which existed before 1991, to new and diverse forms was carried out through strict legislative instructions. The priority in the development of the agrarian complex was unquestioningly given to small-scale production, and large farms (collective farms and state farms), which produced most of the marketable output, were practically outlawed.

Land transformations were carried out in the context of constantly changing and conflicting legislation. The content of the reforms changed several times, many very real and highly effective measures were assumed not only in the field of agricultural production, but also in neighboring ones, which served or depended on the agricultural sector. However, they remained only good intentions.

A characteristic feature of agrarian transformations in a transitional economy was that the content of program documents was transformed in practice in exactly the opposite way.

As a result, signs of destabilization of the agricultural sector became clear, mainly associated with:

· Liberalization of prices, which led to an aggravation of the disparity of inter-sectoral economic relations and the withdrawal of huge funds from agriculture;

· Privatization of processing and service enterprises and organizations instead of creating conditions for the development of cooperation and agro-industrial integration;

· Orientation towards small-scale private production, which did not lead to the formation of more efficient organizational structures;

· The unification of credit policy, which does not take into account the specifics of agriculture, the cyclical nature of production, and a slowdown in capital turnover;

· A forced transition to market relations without the minimum necessary infrastructure, which led to the ousting of the bulk of rural producers from the market, the transfer of the function of distributing products to intermediaries, and the strengthening of the monopoly position in the market of processing and trading organizations.

During privatization, it was assumed that subsequently mechanisms would be established for the transfer of the initially distributed property into the hands of effective users. Such mechanisms were not created, therefore, a significant part of the land and fixed assets was without any use at the farms that had practically ceased their normal functioning. Of the positive transformations, it can be noted that on the basis of the reorganized collective and state farms, joint stock companies, partnerships with limited liability, agricultural production cooperatives, associations of peasant (farmer) households, collective agricultural enterprises. The farming sector was formed in its infancy.

By the beginning of the XXI century, the following problems emerged:

· About 30 million hectares of land were withdrawn from agricultural use;

· Removal of nutrients from the soil significantly exceeded their introduction with fertilizers;

· Decline of reclamation systems;

· Overgrowth of the area of ​​acidified soils;

· Technical degradation of the agricultural sector;

The provision of enterprises with agricultural machinery decreased by 40-60%. Equipment wear has reached 75%. The rate of its annual retirement is 3-4 times faster than the rate of renewal. If this trend continues, in a few years there will be nothing to do mechanized work with.

The debts of agricultural enterprises exceed the annual proceeds from the sale of all agricultural products. 55% of agricultural enterprises remained unprofitable. During the years of reforms, state capital investment decreased by 20 times.

The formation of a market agrarian structure on the basis of the reorganization of collective and state farms was primarily a political task and could not help in solving economic difficulties. The increase in the number of farms and the creation of new forms of management on the basis of collective and state farms could not neutralize the destructive effect of price disparities, market forces, and the state's self-elimination from many objectively necessary management functions.

The very idea of ​​farming as a political and ideological counterbalance to the former socialist structure, and not as a usual attribute of a market economy and a means of replenishing the country's food fund and the income of the rural population, seems to be flawed. The idea of ​​farming as the only acceptable and most effective form of agricultural production for Russia was not only erroneous, but also pernicious.

Even at the beginning of this political and economic experiment, experts warned about the lack of prospects for small-scale farming in the era of large-scale production, about the disadvantageousness of dispersing land and capital at a time when concentration and specialization of production are becoming the main factors in increasing the efficiency of the agro-industrial complex. Splitting a large commodity producer into many small ones destroys production and its technology. Each new formation is economically weaker than the whole, and small commodity production does not allow it to get stronger economically in a short period of time. The practice of Russia has confirmed that without the creation of appropriate conditions and infrastructure, the idea of ​​"farmerizing" agriculture is doomed to failure.

The absence of a scientifically grounded program of the initiated transformations, the corresponding mechanisms for carrying out the reform created a threat to agrarian transformations in Russia. At present, the agro-industrial complex of Russia is going through a crisis caused by the general socio-economic crisis in the country, subjective mistakes in agri-food policy and the inevitable consequences of its implementation.

The aggravation of the agrarian crisis was most influenced by the factors of macroeconomic policy of the last two decades.

The most important of these were:

· Liquidation of the USSR and violation of long-term interregional and interbranch economic ties;

· Increasing the disparity in prices for means of production and products sold;

· Liberalization of prices, and, first of all, for energy resources;

· A significant reduction in the investment activity of the state and the loss of control over money circulation;

· Quick, unprepared and ill-considered privatization, which does not take into account the territorial and sectoral specifics of the national economy, especially in agriculture;

· Destruction of the existing system of management of the national economy without creating its new forms, adequate to the requirements of the development of market relations, including those promoting the implementation of the agrarian reform.

Objective difficulties of reforming, the current macroeconomic situation and subjective mistakes in the implementation of reforms led to a significant decline in the production and consumption of food. The volume of agricultural production has almost halved over the past years. Imports of foodstuffs, especially meat and vegetable oil, rose sharply. In recent years, the per capita consumption of food has almost halved, and the total caloric intake has decreased by a third.

The expected results of the reforms were not achieved mainly due to the fact that they were mainly aimed at the legal reorganization of enterprises, and not at the institutional transformation of the market and the organization of its infrastructure, and a system of market regulation was not created.

Modern institutional transformations should be aimed at improving forms of management, creating optimal market production structures, the most competitive in the market conditions and ensuring the maximum realization of the participants' opportunities in their economic activity.

In the transition period, when the imperfect market mechanism not only does not provide self-regulation of reproduction processes, but is not even able to stabilize the situation and prevent further collapse of the agricultural economy, it is necessary to comply with the principle of combining indicativeness (recommendation) and directiveness. However, the most effective means of influencing rural entrepreneurship are methods of economic support, when instead of appeals or instructions to the private sector for the most promising groups of entrepreneurs, the state creates conditions for obtaining greater profits (mainly at the expense of budget funds).

The most important principles of state regulation, which are of particular importance in the context of a crisis in transition economy, are:

· Material support for agricultural producers;

· Agrarian protectionism;

· Combination of economic and social goals.

In Russia, measures of state support for rural entrepreneurship should not be limited only to budget subsidies and compensations. The most important role is played by the provision of start-up assistance to rural entrepreneurs, including guarantees for newly created farms, as well as support for the formation of production infrastructure, assistance in the establishment and development of reformed agricultural enterprises.

If we consider the structure of the agricultural economy from the point of view of the proportions of various models of ownership, then private farms are among the real subjects of economic relations of the capitalist type, which have demonstrated not only the ability to survive, but also to succeed in harsh market conditions. These farms-producers today account for about 45% of the total agricultural output. These include: agricultural holdings and equity enterprises, farms, farmsteads of peasants, as well as small businesses in rural areas in various forms: private flour mills, bakeries, creameries, repair shops, etc. The presence of agricultural holdings in the agricultural economy testifies to the invasion industrial principles of production into a system traditionally aimed at the implementation of patriarchal ways of working on the land. It is about preserving, encouraging and developing a special connection between the worker and his land, about the presence of a significant personal moment in economic processes, which has always given convincing results of economical, careful and profitable management of the economy.

Meanwhile, agricultural holdings occupy a significant place in the agricultural economy, which are powerful vertically integrated structures that include both production and processing and sales of products. Naturally, all this requires a lot of funds. They come to the countryside as investors interested in closing the cycle by linking the processing and sale of agricultural products with their production. And this activity of agricultural holdings is decisive in their assessment. The development of any type of rural household needs careful state patronage. It is necessary to restore not only the agricultural system of the household type, but also the psychology of the land owner, lost during the years of Soviet power, which, of course, requires considerable time and effort.

Yet, despite all the difficulties of the transition period, large agricultural producers continue to exist. It is undeniable that at the end of the twentieth century. about 90% of them were unprofitable, but even during this period there are known, albeit rather rare, examples of well-being and even prosperity. Nevertheless, one can state a significant improvement in the institutional position of large producers. By many indicators of economic activity, representatives of this type of farms have ceased to be monopolists. In addition, large farms are no longer the basis of social life and everyday life in rural areas. And finally, they turned from landowners to land users.

2 . WAYS TO OVERCOME THE AIC CRISIS

Agricultural development is one of the few industry-specific areas of expertise in the activities of the Center for Special Development (CSR). Its inclusion in the list of the Center's developments is due to a number of reasons that distinguish agriculture from the entire list of industries. First of all, this is the sector that provides the population of the country with the most important essential goods - food. Secondly, due to the huge areas suitable for agriculture, Russia objectively has all the possibilities for the development of an agri-food sector competitive on world markets. Thirdly, the problem of poverty is closely related to agriculture - in rural areas the share of the poor is much higher than in cities.

Based on this understanding, a working group was organized in the CSR to develop and consolidate in legislation new principles of state policy in rural areas. The first law was devoted to the formulation of objectives, principles and instruments of state agri-food policy, the second contained specific programs to support the agri-food sector. This division is generally consistent with world practice.

In recent years, the current government of the Russian Federation has tried to take into account and rethink the mistakes made in the first years of the transition period. Now agriculture in our country is developing within the framework of the National Project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex".

The priority directions for the development of this project are:

· Accelerated development of animal husbandry;

· Stimulating the development of small businesses;

· Provision of affordable housing for young families and young specialists in the countryside.

The main goal of the project is the accelerated development of animal husbandry and an increase in the production of meat and milk for the gradual replacement of imported meat and dairy products. Within the framework of the whole of Russia, the task was set to increase the production of milk by 4.5% by 2008, and meat - by 7%.

The implementation of the first direction of the National Project will increase the profitability of animal husbandry, carry out technical re-equipment of existing livestock complexes (farms) and put into operation new capacities.

This will be possible due to:

· Increasing the availability of long-term loans attracted for up to 8 years;

· Growth of supplies under the federal leasing system for pedigree livestock, machinery and equipment for animal husbandry;

· Improvement of measures of customs and tariff regulation;

The second direction of the National Project is aimed at increasing the volume of sales of products produced by peasant (farmer) farms and citizens who have their own subsidiary plots.

This is supposed to be achieved by:

· Reduction in the cost of credit resources attracted by small forms of management of the agro-industrial complex;

· Development of infrastructure for servicing small businesses in the agro-industrial complex - a network of agricultural consumer cooperatives (procurement, supply and marketing, processing, credit).

The implementation of the third direction will provide affordable housing for young professionals (or their families) in the countryside, create conditions for the formation of effective human resources in the agro-industrial complex.

Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will help to organically fit into the world agricultural market.

To date, negotiations on Russia's accession to the WTO have been completed with all the participating countries, except for Vietnam, Georgia and Cambodia. Support for Russian agriculture was one of the most important topics of these negotiations. Agreements have already been reached on access to the Russian agricultural market. For all goods produced in Russia (all types of meat, milk, butter, sugar), customs tariffs will remain unchanged after joining the WTO. For those goods that are not produced in our country, the Russian side made concessions on tariffs. In the signed documents, the basic indicator of state support for agriculture is taken for 1993-1995 and is approximately US $ 9 billion, and in the next 2 years there will be no increase in import quotas. In general, speaking about the consequences of joining the WTO for the economy and for agriculture of Russia in particular, according to the calculations of economists, this step is not expected to have a negative impact on the agricultural sector.

At the moment, there is a lack of regulation in the agricultural sector of the market. Wholesale prices for agricultural products are declining, while retail prices are increasing, including due to an increase in imports of these goods from abroad.

In our opinion, when joining the WTO, the federal authorities should reduce import quotas for these goods, eliminate the irregularity of supplies in time and suppress illegal channels for the supply of food to Russia.

Only with state support of Russian agriculture will it be able to produce competitive products under the WTO conditions.

When forming a strategy for the development of agriculture, it will be useful to take into account the experience of leading developed countries.

For example, in the United States, the government provides subsidies from federal budget in the event of a decrease in market prices for agricultural products below the guaranteed price level. A special government organization accepts agricultural products as collateral from producers at guaranteed prices, and if market prices exceed the collateral, the producer buys out his goods and sells them on the market. If the prices are lower than the collateral rates, then the goods remain in the ownership of the government agency. Thus, the United States, being the largest exporter of agricultural products, by supporting its own producers is taking effective measures to maintain such a gap in world prices, as a result of which its own producer does not lose, and the level of world prices remains under control. agriculture crisis producer

The pricing mechanism in the EU is effective, developed for each type of agricultural product and for each region. Several price categories are established - indicative prices determined by the Communities as desired, minimum import prices or thresholds, minimum sales prices guaranteed to the manufacturer by interventions, official organizations... The existence of a threshold price protects the market from imports; the price of intervention guarantees a minimum income for producers. Thus, protectionism at the EU's borders protects producers from sudden shocks in the global market. The well-thought-out agricultural policy of the EU made it possible for 10-15 years to go from an importer of agricultural products to a position close to self-sufficiency and the second world exporter.

3. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS OF WORLD RURALFARMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

According to economists, by 2010 in developed countries a relatively low growth in food consumption is expected: 2-2.5%. In developing countries, however, a sharp increase in consumption is expected. This primarily concerns the countries of the Asian region and some countries of Latin America. Also expected to increase consumption of products in the countries the former USSR, countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

The scientific press has published a lot of forecasts for the development of agriculture in the 21st century. All futurists and practitioners agree that revolutionary changes are coming. With progress in agricultural technology, the need for food will change, it will become more, and it will cost less. In the late 1960s, Americans spent about a third of their income on food. Now it takes them only 10%. People can afford a lot more. For example, Americans satisfy about half of their food needs outside the home - in cafes, restaurants, and fast food establishments. Rising incomes will lead to consumers wanting healthy food as well as tasty food. The new type of food will simultaneously contain vaccines against diseases, and have a number of others positive qualities... The growth of the world's population should contribute to the development of agriculture, since it will be necessary to satisfy not only the basic needs, but also the tastes of people of different nationalities and ages. Rural producers need to constantly improve their products, offer new types of healthier food. Only in this case they will have a cloudless future.

Agriculture will be forced to adapt to the market conditions of an increasingly globalized world economy, as tough financial policy does not support the necessary market measures. V farms the trend towards economic growth will continue. First of all, it will be necessary to reduce production costs through the efficient use of agricultural machinery. The production and sale of specific regional products as well as environmentally friendly products is becoming one of the significant sources of income. In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, there are exceptionally favorable conditions for effective competitive production of wheat, rapeseed or pork, dynamic development of production is ensured, achievements in the development of biology and technology are used, the integration of production activities and public appraisal peasant labor. In the past 25 years, labor costs for food production have decreased by three quarters, a tendency for them to decrease by 50% is forecasted by 2010. Despite the population growth, the level of food prices in world markets will mainly remain at the current level due to the lack of solvent demand in developing countries. Losses can be partially covered by the results of technical development and lower prices for material and technical means. Environmental disputes are becoming more and more objective. Cooperation and diversified manufacturing will help relieve pressure to reduce costs. The efficiency of the large farms will remain at a high level. The concentration of capital will continue in the agricultural sector. The role of agricultural production will become much more multifaceted. Technological development will lead to the fact that the role of information and communication technology in the organization of production and market entry will grow. The economic opportunities for the use of biology and gene technology will increase. The latter is spreading more slowly in animal husbandry than in crop production. Increasing production or preserving the harvested crop is not a problem. It is important to improve the quality of products, the favorable formation of the structure of proteins, and the improvement of the quality of sugars and vegetable oils. Solving these problems requires significant fundamental scientific research, which will make it possible to create new varieties of agricultural crops and animal breeds that will provide a qualitative and quantitative increase in production. The food needs of a growing population will have to be met in smaller areas, with less water and a deteriorating environment.

In many countries, food production is subsidized. Financial support per hectare of agricultural land in the EU countries is $ 500, in the USA - about $ 100, in Russia - only $ 2, although in the 80s the state subsidies per hectare were more than in the USA (approximately $ 150-200). Given the current economic situation in Russia, it is simply unrealistic to count on subsidies of more than $ 20 / ha in the near future. Today they can make up no more than 10% of the value of agricultural products, and this is, in practice, a requirement for self-sufficiency. These are the real conditions. Therefore, in order to ensure the self-sufficiency of agriculture and at the same time maintain the conditions of reproduction, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of grain production by at least 2 times. This must be done both by reducing material and financial costs, and by increasing yields.

In FAO's view, the reality is that food production in the coming years can be sustained through massive investment in water distribution controls. The reason is that 70% of fresh water is used for agriculture. It has already been said about the limited water resources. In addition, there is a struggle for them from other sectors of the economy. Therefore, agriculture finds itself in a difficult situation - it needs to produce more food and best quality with less water use and without compromising the environment. Sustainable economic growth in most developing countries can only be achieved through powerful agriculture. For the growth of agricultural production, it is necessary to make significant private and state investments in infrastructure, technology, and the system of water use for peasants. According to FAO experts, the locomotive for the growth of agricultural production is the improvement of the water use system.

One of global problems modern agriculture is the redistribution of agricultural products - food. The main problem of humanity is the distribution of food. Despite the unprecedented increase in the level of prosperity in the world, famine is occurring in one region and then in another. In a number of countries in Asia and especially in Africa, a particularly catastrophic food situation has developed due to civil conflicts and a huge number of refugees and displaced persons. If highly food-surplus countries want to maintain their standard of living, they must help developing countries. Because the half-starved population will not be stopped by either the Mediterranean Sea or the Atlantic Ocean. The hungry will rush to where there is food and prosperity.

The most important prerequisite for a proper global response to hunger is the development of an appropriate economic understanding of the food problem. In Africa, for example, there are many opportunities to expand food production, but this requires appropriate economic policies (including research works in the agricultural sector, institutional reforms and changes in relative prices). Modern agriculture also has high hopes for biotechnology, the gene revolution.

CONCLUSION

Agriculture is an essential element of the world economy, providing the world's population food products... Russian agriculture after being in the stagnation stage in the 70-80s. The twentieth century, when the outlines of the coming crisis had already emerged, was subjected to the destructive impact of the reforms of the 90s.

The transformations were carried out in the context of constantly changing and contradictory legislation and spontaneous price liberalization. The cornerstone was not the creation of something new, but the destruction of the old. This led to the emergence of numerous problems by the beginning of the XXI century: withdrawal of huge areas from agricultural use, degradation of land, agricultural machinery, processing sector (which did not work very well even under socialism).

To overcome the crisis, the government in recent years has developed a number of measures within the framework of the national project "Development of the agro-industrial complex". The leading directions of this project are the accelerated development of animal husbandry, the stimulation of the development of small forms of farming, the provision of affordable housing for young families and young specialists in the countryside.

As capitalist tendencies were introduced into the Russian economy, an increasing role began to belong to private forms of agricultural production (up to 45%). State support is also needed in this direction.

With regard to Russia, it is obvious that success is possible only if the measures of state regulation and agricultural policy take into account the value orientations of the rural population that have developed over many decades, the behavior patterns of its various groups, socio-psychological and national characteristics.

In recent years, a number of problems have emerged in the globalizing system of the world economy. This is the problem of uneven redistribution of agricultural products, outlining problems with water resources, which are of prime importance in agriculture. In general, in developed countries (USA, EU), agriculture is developing quite successfully, making these countries the leading exporters of agricultural products, new technologies are being introduced in the field of biochemistry and genetics.

There are hopes that as a result of a more thought-out economic policy and a probable entry into the WTO, Russia will be able to take its rightful place in the system of world agriculture.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Dobrynin V.P. On the concept of development of agriculture in Russia. - M .: MSKh, 2006.

2. Kara-Murza S.G. Economic reforms in Russia 1999-2001 - M .: Algorithm 2002.

3. The course of the economy in transition // Ed. L.I. Abalkin. - M .: Finstatinform, 2007.

4. Course economic theory: Tutorial// Ed. A.V. Sidorovich. - M .: DIS, 2001

5. Pletnev P.A. New problems of world agriculture. // "Krestyanskie vedomosti", 2007, №10

6. Sergeev D.V. Institutional features of agriculture in post-perestroika Russia - Moscow: 2003.

7. Serova E.V. Agricultural economics. - M .: GU HSE, 1999.

8. Theory of an economy in transition: Textbook // Ed. I.P. Nikolaeva. - M .: Prospect, 2001.

9. Economy in transition // Ed. V.V. Radaeva, A.V. Buzgalin. - M .: Publishing house of Moscow State University, 2005.

Posted on Allbest.ru

Similar documents

The history of the development and reform of agriculture. Strategic objectives of the agri-food policy of the Russian state. Analysis state of the art and the prospects for state regulation of the agrarian sector of the Novosibirsk region.

abstract added on 04/28/2015


The history of the emergence and development of agriculture. Basic information and the role of agriculture in the economy. The state of agriculture in Belarus, dynamics of indicators. The most pressing problems and ways to solve them. Construction of econometric models.

thesis, added 07/11/2013


Strategic planning development of agriculture in the system of post-industrial values. Financial support and material system of agriculture. The principles of the formation of the newest system of state forecasting and planning.

test, added 09/13/2010


The concept of the agricultural sector, its features and role in the country's economy. Study of the directions of state policy in the field of agriculture. Analysis of the state of the agro-industrial complex and the development of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

thesis, added 06/07/2014


Agricultural intensification: criterion, indicators, efficiency. Objective necessity and prospects for the intensification of agricultural sectors. The main directions and ways of further intensification of agriculture, indicators of its level.

test, added 09/12/2012


The essence and significance of profitability in agriculture. Analysis of indicators of profitability of agriculture Russian Federation... Perspective guidelines for the development of agriculture. Carrying out a policy of state support for this industry.

term paper, added 10/13/2017


Analysis of the problems of agricultural development in Ukraine. Determination of factors affecting the efficiency of the agro-industrial complex. The results of state support for agricultural enterprises: a decrease in competitiveness and an increase in profitability.

test, added 09/04/2010


Prospects for the development of the agro-industrial complex in Russia. The impact of the crisis on the development of agriculture. Organizational assessment of the activities of the company "VOSHCHNOV" LLC. Characteristics of fixed assets. The structure of accounts payable and receivable.

practice report, added 05/09/2015


Analysis of the functioning of the agro-industrial complex, possible ways to improve its activities. Features of modern agricultural production in Russia. Economic problems of agriculture. Necessary conditions for sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex.

term paper, added 02/16/2014


Theoretical analysis of specific patterns of agricultural development. Study of the development and current state of the agro-industrial complex both in Russia in general and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Siberian Federal District in particular. The main problems of the agro-industrial complex.

This industry maintains positive development dynamics, despite the global financial crisis and serious problems associated with drought and forest fires. However, the annual growth rate is very low, at only half a percent. Thus, we can talk about some stagnation in this industry.

This situation developed due to the wrong approach to agriculture during the late Soviet Union. Development was carried out only by extensive methods. That is, not by using high technologies and special equipment, but by expanding areas. In addition, the work was carried out with very heavy agricultural machinery, which made the land less fertile.

However, the situation is now slowly changing for the better. The use of inexpensive foreign equipment, which is bought from abroad and has already been in use, makes it possible to cultivate the land in a sparing mode. The newest types of fertilizers cost much less money than before. In addition, they cause less harm to the environment, and the products themselves do not contain substances hazardous to human health.

Various automation systems used in the agro-industrial complex play an important role. In the case of livestock farms, they reduce the cost of ownership and increase the efficiency of the entire organization.

The state took an active part in helping to restore food security in Russia. That is, a decrease in the level of imports of food and agricultural goods.

Russia's accession to the WTO may pose a problem for the development of agriculture. To do this, it is necessary to leave the funding standards at the same, low level. Despite this, Russia has managed to achieve some concessions in this area.

Conclusion

Agro-industrial complex, being part of economy of the country, obeys the general laws of economic development and at the same time is distinguished by specific features due to high social significance manufactured products.

The transformation of the agrarian sector of the economy, carried out without deep scientific substantiation and in a rather short period, led to the emergence of a number of permanent problems both at the macro- and micro-level of the functioning of the agro-industrial complex.

In addition to general economic problems, the agro-industrial complex of the region is characterized by special, specific problems caused by the imperfection of production and economic relations in the agri-food sector.

At present, despite individual signs of stabilization, the agro-industrial complex as a whole is in a state of deep systemic crisis caused by the accumulated problems of its functioning in the pre-reform period: the presence of structural imbalances between various spheres and all product segments, a high degree of physical and moral deterioration of fixed assets, irrational specialization of agricultural production, insufficient use of the achievements of agrarian science in production, the presence of a system of active statistical disinformation, etc. These problems have led to the objective need to reform the agricultural sector in order to increase the efficiency of its functioning. The most significant were the problems of modifying production and economic relations between economic entities, creating new, more advanced production units, changing land relations, forming a specialized lending system for the agro-industrial complex, and legal regulation.

Agricultural production of enterprises of all forms of ownership and management will develop successfully if the executive and legislative authorities at the federal and regional levels make efforts to address the following urgent tasks:

Improvement financial situation agricultural enterprises, in particular, by solving the problem of disparity in prices for agricultural and industrial products, creating a mechanism for its elimination;

Strengthening the material and technical base of agricultural enterprises;

Creation of conditions for the socio-economic development of rural areas, sustainable growth of production of agricultural enterprises of all forms of ownership;

Changing demographic situation. Adoption of federal target program taking care of the youth of the village;

Raising the level of qualifications of personnel in the countryside.

The solution of these tasks will ensure the sustainable development of production in the agro-industrial complex.

The development of agricultural (and food) production in Russia is taking place against the backdrop of a favorable global environment and an improvement in economic conditions in the agricultural sector due to the implementation of the priority national project "Development of the agro-industrial complex".

The measures taken in recent years aimed at improving the socio-economic situation in the agrarian sector have made it possible to form a trend towards an increase in production and an increase in the efficiency of agricultural production. The CAGR for the five years from 2003 to 2007 was 102.7 percent.

Substantial changes have taken place in macroeconomic policy. Credit resources became more accessible for agricultural producers, investment activity in agriculture increased. The average annual investment growth rate for the five-year period was 122.5 percent.

The factors limiting development were the low level of energy and capital-labor ratio, chemicalization, insufficient level of agro-technical culture, lack of qualified specialists, underdeveloped infrastructure of the internal market (elevators, slaughterhouses, etc.).

Among the factors that potentially contribute to the successful development of the sector in the near term, it should be noted:

Expansion of demand, including technological demand, for fodder crops significantly increases the commercial prospects of domestic agriculture, since low-quality crops are much more suitable for cultivation in risky farming zones, which make up the bulk of the land fund reserve;

The rise in prices on world markets increases the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products and provides financial opportunities for the massive technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex;

No restrictions on cultivated areas - significant cultivated areas in the eastern part of the country have not yet been developed, which provides additional resources in the event of an increase in demand for food.

The search for new technologies for the production of biofuels (both first and subsequent generations) gives research in the field of energy and agricultural technologies in Russia an additional commercial incentive;

The food industry has also demonstrated stable growth dynamics over the past five years, supported by growing consumer demand, investment attractiveness of the sector, expansion of export opportunities and the development of a raw material base. The average annual growth rate of food production in 2003-2007 was 105.4 percent. As in agriculture, individual segments of the industry showed different dynamics. Acceleration of growth rates, especially in 2005-2006, was observed in the development of the sugar beet sector, fat-and-oil, meat segment of foodstuffs.

The most typical trends in the development of the food industry are primarily associated with the consolidation of assets, the formation of large companies (for example, the fat and oil sector), as well as the continuing formation of vertically integrated ties and shocks in the global agri-food markets.

In the structure of Russian food export, the share of oilseeds export decreased with the expansion of export supplies of sunflower oil. Exports of flour confectionery, chocolate and cocoa-containing products increased.

Despite the fact that the growth of agri-food exports outstripped the growth of imports, Russia still maintains its traditional position as a net importer of food products. Meat supplies remain the main item of all agri-food imports.

The limited possibilities of domestic producers cannot yet fully satisfy the growing domestic demand due to the growth of monetary incomes of the population, which may lead to the preservation of relatively high growth rates of imports of food products.

In this regard, the main goals of public policy in the long term are:

meeting the needs of the population with agricultural products and food at the expense of domestic production;

increasing the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural complex, effective import substitution in the livestock market and creating a developed export potential (especially in crop production);

improving and increasing the productivity of land and other natural resources used in agricultural production.

In 2020, compared to 2007, the level of food production will increase 1.9 times.

The gross harvest of grain crops in 2020 can reach at least 120-125 million tons as a result of an increase in yield from 19.8 c / ha in 2007 to at least 26-28 c / ha in 2020 and the expansion of their sown areas ... At the same time, the potential level of grain production based on the use of intensive technologies and high agro-technical culture will allow Russia to become one of the leading exporters in the world grain market.

By 2020, Russia can reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk corresponding to the recommended rational norm. Meat production will increase 1.7 times, milk - 27%. The share of imports in meat resources will decrease from 34% in 2007 to 12% in 2020, the share of milk imports in resources - from 17% to 12%, respectively. Meat consumption will be almost entirely satisfied by its own production.

Restrictions on the development of food production are associated with:

imperfection of the mechanism of state and, above all, customs and tariff regulation of the food market;

underdeveloped production infrastructure, especially in the meat and dairy sector;

dependence on imports of raw materials and fluctuations in world prices;

insufficient development of the raw material base and the persistence of the problem of supplying high-quality raw materials for processing;

incompleteness of development work technical regulations.

In particular, the main restrictions on the development of the fishery complex are: technological backwardness of production, a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets, low investment attractiveness of the fishing industry, imperfection of legislation on aquatic biological resources, and a high level of poaching.

TO competitive advantages food industry include:

fast and steady growth of markets and their large scale, as essential factors of the investment attractiveness of the industry;

renovation of more than half of the production capacity on average in the industry;

dynamic development of auxiliary and service industries (containers and packaging, logistics and marketing services).

Depending on the completeness and consistency of the implementation of agricultural policy measures, the level of state support for agricultural producers, the rate of technological renewal of agricultural production and the level of material and technical support for the development of agriculture, internal and external demand for agricultural products, it seems possible to predict two development options.

Table 47 - Factors determining the development of agriculture

The inertial version of the development of agriculture is characterized by a slow transition from extensive forms of agricultural production to intensive technologies.

By 2020, the growth of manufactured products is projected at the level of 120-125% in relation to 2007. The specified indicator of production growth will be achieved in the context of insufficiently high growth rates of investment opportunities in agriculture and, accordingly, insufficient growth of material and technical equipment for agricultural production and the development of progressive resource-saving technologies and solving social problems of the countryside.

According to the innovative option, it is envisaged to fully implement the measures determined by the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulation of the Markets of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food for 2008-2012.

It is envisaged to stimulate investments in agriculture by increasing the availability of loans, development institutions that will allow the implementation of large projects on the principles of project financing, active involvement of financial institutions (Rosagroleasing, Rosselkhozbank, etc.), lending secured by purchased equipment and equipment, breeding products, facilities construction in progress and other mechanisms to facilitate the attraction of investments. For the period from 2008 to 2012, the volume of credit resources allocated for technical and technological modernization may exceed 250 billion rubles.

Investments in fixed assets from all sources of financing by 2020 will increase 5 times compared to 2007. In the structure of investments by sectors of agriculture for large and medium-sized organizations in 2020, the share of crop production will account for about 30%, livestock - 50 percent. By 2020, the volume of investments from own funds may increase to 925 billion rubles against 85.3 billion rubles in 2007. The funds raised in 2020 may exceed 1,900 billion rubles against 148.2 billion rubles in 2007. The share of the purchase of machinery and equipment will account for about 46% of the total volume of investments, the construction of buildings (except for residential) and structures - 30-35 percent. The share of investments for the purchase of pedigree livestock will increase from 11% in 2007 to 17-20% in 2020.

The implementation of measures to intensify crop and livestock production, reduce material and labor costs will significantly improve economic indicators agricultural development.

Table 48 - Factors in the development of the food industry

The inertial version of the development of the food market is characterized by an increase in consumer demand for food products, a low level of competitiveness of domestic products, an average level of investment activity and a relatively high degree of dependence of the Russian food market on imports.

The volume of production of food products in 2020 will grow 1.6 times against the level of 2007.

By 2020, the industry will have attracted over 900 billion rubles of investment funds (1.9 times higher than in 2007), of which over 500 billion rubles will be allocated for technological modernization.

The innovative development scenario is guided by a stable consumer demand for food, the formation of a new culture of consumption, a large-scale investment attraction aimed at technological modernization of production.

According to estimates, the dynamics of food imports is constrained by the rather strong competitive position of Russian producers, supported by an active investment policy, which will lead to a greater orientation of domestic demand for domestic goods and a slowdown in import growth (import substitution).

The level of food production in 2020 compared to 2007 will increase 1.9 times.

By 2020, the industry will attract investment funds of about 1,150 billion rubles (2.9 times the level of 2007), of which more than 640 billion rubles will be allocated for technological modernization. The production capacity utilization rate will reach 85% against 70% in 2007.

The growth of meat production will be influenced by the improvement of the raw material base and the use of modern technologies... Saturation of the domestic market with domestic raw materials (pork and poultry) will affect the decrease in the share of pork imports in resources in 2020 to 7-10% against 24.9% in 2007, poultry - 14% and 39.5 percent, respectively. As a result of rapid modernization and capacity building in efficient poultry companies, Russia will be able to claim the role of a significant exporter of poultry meat.

The growth of internal and external demand, the projected rise in prices for dairy products will have a stimulating effect on the dairy sector. The export of dairy products will double. Promising prospects for dairy producers are opening up in terms of their exports to the markets of Southeast Asian countries, which are experiencing limited resources for milk production.

By 2020, Russia may reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk that corresponds to the recommended rational norm.

High prices for sunflower seeds in 2007, caused by a low harvest in 2007 against the backdrop of growing capacities of Russian oil extraction plants, encouraged producers to significantly expand the area under this crop in 2008. The upward trend in sunflower production and, as a consequence, sunflower oil production will continue in 2009-2020.

There is a tendency to increase the production of rapeseed oil against the background of the development of the market for alternative energy sources. Further prospects for the development of the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market will directly depend on the policy pursued by the EU countries with regard to increasing or decreasing the volume of biofuel production and a possible change in the export duty on rapeseed.

Considering high demand for vegetable oils, in aggregate, the production of vegetable oils in 2020 compared to 2007 will grow by 29 percent.

In the sugar sector, it is envisaged to further reduce the processing of raw sugar (in 2020 to 2007 - about 64%) and, accordingly, a significant increase in the production of domestic beet sugar (about 129%). The share of sugar imports in resources will decline from 39% in 2007 to 20% in 2020.

The projected growth in flour production is characterized by moderate market development and is determined by the demand of bakery and confectionery enterprises, enterprises Catering and retail. Expansion of external demand may become a factor driving the growth of the flour-grinding industry. A new trend is already taking shape - the export of flour to Central Asia.

Table 49 - Production of main types of food

Table 50 - Indicators of the development of the agro-industrial complex

The main challenges and risks to the favorable development of the sector are associated with the following factors:

Substantial rise in domestic food prices. The restoration of parity in prices for tradable food and, through them, for non-tradable food is a natural process, which in the long term will result in a parity of domestic and foreign food prices. The risk here is overgrowth when biofuel production or other competing uses of agricultural land becomes more profitable in the short term than growing food;

The rise in prices on world markets increases the price competitiveness of domestic agricultural products, that is, together with financial capabilities, it significantly reduces the incentives for technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex.

An overly extensive method of expanding agricultural production in the context of state policy that is not aimed at intensifying production is delaying labor force and significantly slows down the growth of labor productivity, and hence the income of the population.

The need for massive technological and, as a consequence, structural (reduction of excess employment) modernization of agriculture. If this risk is realized, Russian agriculture will not be able to increase output when there is global demand for its products, and, possibly, will remain uncompetitive in the long term.

In the medium term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by the following factors:

preservation and maintenance of soil fertility;

creation of economic conditions for agricultural producers to invest in modernization and technical re-equipment of production;

state support for agriculture, improving the forms of state support;

increasing the financial stability of agriculture and the solvency of agricultural producers;

improving the organization of production and labor, increasing the level of employment, motivation and remuneration;

creation of a system of state information support in the field of agriculture;

settlement of land relations;

improving the mechanisms for regulating the markets of agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs.

In the long term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by:

improving the zonal farming system and increasing the volume of application mineral fertilizers(110-117 kg / ha);

significant (up to 35-40 percent of the sown area) expansion of the sown areas of high-yielding agricultural crops;

improving the breed composition of livestock, expanding the network of breeding farms;

the implementation of measures to stimulate the accelerated recovery of the cattle population;

improving the structure of concentrated feed used in animal husbandry by increasing the proportion of mixed feed balanced in all components and increasing on this basis the return on feed;

an increase in the development of modern automated technologies for keeping livestock and poultry, which will ensure the growth of their productivity to a level close to the indicators of the world's leading manufacturers of livestock products, increase their competitiveness and implement import substitution in the predicted volume;

active implementation of social programs in the countryside.

Further development of food markets can be seen in the context of the growth in effective demand of the population, global market trends and a possible strengthening of positions in the external market, mainly due to the CIS countries. There is a possibility of an increase in value added not due to an increase in physical volumes, but due to shifts in the structure of production towards more expensive goods.

Significant growth opportunities for the food industry, supported by the accelerated development of agricultural production, will allow Russia to occupy its own niche in the world market for such products as sunflower oil, dry milk, animal butter, and poultry meat.

Realization of the unique natural and economic potential of the country, intensification of agricultural production will allow Russia to become one of the world market leaders in such types of products as grain, flax fiber and “ecological agriculture” products.

At the same time, in the long term, it is possible to strengthen the role of large and medium-sized agricultural organizations that have greater opportunities for concentrating production and using resource-saving technologies than in personal subsidiary plots of the population.