What risk is considered high. Razuvaev V.V. Theoretical definition of the concept of risk. Impact of Risk on Team Cohesion

Experts from various industries in messages and reports write about the terms "danger" and "risk".

In the scientific literature, they write about different interpretations of the term "risk". The term "risk" has several meanings. Terms differ in content. Risk in the terminology of insurance is used to refer to the object of insurance of an industrial enterprise or company, an insured event of flood, fire, explosion, the insurance amount of danger in monetary terms, or a collective term to refer to undesirable and uncertain events. Economists and statisticians who deal with these questions understand risk as a measure of the possible consequences that will occur at some point in the future. In the psychological dictionary, risk is an action aimed at an attractive goal, the achievement of which is associated with elements of danger, the threat of loss, a situational characteristic of activity, consisting of uncertainty and adverse consequences, determined by a combination of the probability and magnitude of adverse consequences. Several definitions of the term describe risk as the occurrence of an accident. Accidents: danger, accident, catastrophe. Accidents occur under certain conditions of production or the atmospheric environment surrounding a person. Definitions as the value of the active activity of the subject, the objective properties of the environment. The common in all the above representations includes an event. There will be an unwanted event or there will be no unwanted event. Usually a probabilistic measure of man-made occurrences and natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of the dangers of the social, economic and technological harm caused by this. Risk is usually a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards, inflicted with social, economic, environmental types of damage and harm. Risk is understood as the expected purity or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain category, the amount of damage, harm from an unwanted event, some combination of values.

Risk is actually a measure of danger. Use the concept of the degree of risk.

The concept of the degree of risk (Level of risk) - does not differ from the concept of risk.

The degree of risk is a measurable value.

The term risk is currently used in hazard analysis and safety (process risk) and production management.

The formation of dangerous and emergency situations is the result of a certain set of risk factors generated by the relevant sources.

With regard to life safety, such an event can be the death of a person, an accident or catastrophe of a technical system or device, pollution or deterioration of the ecological system, the death of a group of people, an increase in mortality, an increase in security costs.

Each undesirable event may occur in relation to a specific victim - the object of risk.

There are individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks.

Types of risk.

Technical. Technical systems and objects. Violation of the rules of operation and technical systems and objects. Accident, explosion, catastrophe, fire. Anthropogenic environmental disasters, technical disasters.

Ecological. Ecological systems. Anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment, man-made emergencies. Anthropogenic, environmental disasters, natural disasters.

Social. social groups. Emergency. Decreased quality of life. group trauma. Diseases. The death of people. The rise in mortality.

Economic. Material resources. Increased risk of production. Increased danger of the natural environment. Increasing security costs. Damage from inadequate protection.

Individual. Person. conditions of human life. Diseases. Injury. Disability. Death.

Individual risk is determined by the probability of realization of potential hazards in the event of hazardous situations. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

R-individual risk;

P - the number of victims who died per unit of time t from a certain risk factor f,

W is the number of people exposed to the risk factor f per unit of time t.

Source of individual risk. The most common risk factor for death.

The internal environment of the human body. Aging.

Victimization. Victim of potential dangers.

Social ecology. Poor quality air. Water. Food. Viral infections. Household injuries. Fires.

Professional activity. Dangerous and harmful production factors.

Transport communications. Accidents and disasters Vehicle. Collisions with a transport man. Crash. Catastrophe.

non-professional activity. Sport.

Social environment. Armed conflict. Murder.

Environment. Earthquake. Eruption. Flooding, landslides, hurricanes and other natural disasters.

individual risk. A person is at risk in environmentally unfavorable conditions of the atmospheric environment.

A comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the elements of the technosphere. It expresses the probability of an accident or disaster during the operation of machines, mechanisms, the implementation of technological processes, construction, operation of buildings

R T ‗ ΔT (t)_

Technical risk

T number of accidents per time unit t on identical technical systems and objects

T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common factor.

Sources and factors of technical risk f.

Sources and factors of technical risk.

The number of accidents per time unit t on systems and objects.

Individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by human activities.

Choice of constructive schemes and principles of operation of technical systems.

Errors in determining operational loads. Incorrect choice structural materials. Insufficient margin of safety. Lack of technical safety equipment in the projects. Poor quality construction. Technologies. Security Criteria Documentation. Serial production of unsafe equipment. Deviation from the specified chemical materials. Insufficient accuracy of structural dimensions. Violation of thermal and chemical regimes - heat treatment, details. Violation of the regulations for the assembly and mounting of structures and machines. Violation of the rules for the safe operation of technical systems.

Use of technology inappropriately. Violation of passport design regimes, operation. Untimely preventive inspections and repairs. Violations of the requirements of transportation and storage. Staff mistakes. Weak skills of action in a difficult situation. Inability to evaluate information about the state of the process. Poor knowledge of the essence of the ongoing process. Lack of self-control under stress. Indiscipline.

environmental risk.

Ecological risk expresses the probability of an ecological disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or a natural disaster.

Unwanted environmental risk events both directly in intervention areas and beyond:

Ro═ environmental risk

О number of anthropogenic technological disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t

Number of potential sources of environmental damage in the territory under consideration

The scale of ecological risk Rom is estimated by the percentage ratio of the area of ​​crisis or catastrophic territories to the total area of ​​the considered biogeocenosis.

Rom = ∆S 100

An additional indirect criterion of environmental risk can be an integral indicator of the environmental friendliness of the territory of the enterprise, correlated with the dynamics of population density (number of employees):

OT = +ΔX + ΔM(t)S

O Т ═ ΔX+-Δ M (t)S

From the level of environmental friendliness of the territory.

S area of ​​the study area.

Sources and factors of social risk.

Urbanization of ecologically unstable territories. Settlement of people in areas of possible formation of increased seismicity. Industrial technologies and objects of danger. Accidents at nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, chemical plants, product pipelines. Technogenic pollution of the environment. Social and military conflicts.

Combat action. The use of weapons of mass destruction. epidemics.

Spread of viral infections. Unsatisfactory living conditions.

Economic risk is determined by the ratio of benefits and harms received by society from the type of activity in question.

Bibliography

1. "OBZH: Safety through training" 2008 Moscow.

The concept of "risk" has dozens, if not hundreds of definitions. This is one of the most discussed issues among research theorists. Moreover, what should be emphasized, this term is used in extremely different areas of science, from medicine to international relations. Moreover, each area has its own specific approach to this concept. Risk is incorporated into so many different disciplines that it is not surprising that it is defined again in very different ways.

Approaches to the concept risk very different, but they have something in common. Risk inherent in the choice and can substantially influence the decision made regarding the various options. In addition, risk suggests that options can be made according to a meaningful hierarchy of preferences. Finally, risk has to do with the distribution of the outcomes of a decision and how meaningful they are to the person or people making the decision.

This paper proposes a possible approach to solving this problem.

In case of risk, we face at least two cardinal problems. The first one consists in risk. The second is in its subjective assessment, which in itself is also risk. The latter circumstance is not always taken into account by researchers.

The classic idea of risk associated with the possibility of losses as a result of various reasons. Another approach is related to the fact that losses must necessarily be synchronized with the probability of winnings. This point of view has become dominant in Western economic science since the beginning of the 21st century.

However, there are significant differences in approaches to at risk within different fields of science. In microeconomics, for example, risk usually determined by the possibility of negative results. In other words, risk defined as a low probability of success and a high price for the latter.

Most definitions risk unites that the very concept risk unites events, consequences and possibilities, and uncertainty is expressed through probability. In this case, the last factor of the listed ones is very significant.

Basically there are two ways to interpret the probability in the domain risk. According to the first, probability is understood as a relatively frequent repetition of events. According to the second, probability is a subjective measurement of uncertainty about future events and consequences, which is viewed through the prism of an expert's position and is based on existing information and knowledge. Thus probability refers to the subjective or informative evaluation of itself.

If we follow the first definition, then we generate expectations of the inherent “genuine risk". However, this expectation is uncertain, since there can be a very large discrepancy between it and the actual risk parameters.

Variation in the results of an experiment that, for example, generates a true probability value is often referred to as random uncertainty.

In the case of the second definition, we are faced with the possibility of indeterminate estimates that do not have a direct connection with the correct certainty. The probability estimate in this case always exists on the knowledge of the premises

The term "subjective probability" is often problematic when used in real life, because the concept of "subjective" does not look scientific. In principle, it can be replaced by the concept of "probability based on knowledge". Moreover, probabilities are used as tools to express uncertainties.

Risk is defined in different fields of science (and sometimes in the same) in different ways, but the key definitions again come down to uncertainty about the achievement of goals or about potential losses, as well as incomplete control over the implementation of decisions. . Probably, here one should also add uncertainty in the specific definition of a specific risk which is usually overlooked by researchers.

In normal practice risk associated with something negative, with the possibility of loss. For example, it is considered that risk is any event that can have a negative impact on the objectives of the organization. General concept risk in the overwhelming majority of cases, it is associated with the possibility of loss or damage arising from the activities of organizations or the human factor.

At the same time, it is important to pay attention to certain changes. Thus, before 1997, all official published economic risk management standards in the United States used only negative definitions. risk. It was not a dominant, but an absolute trend. In fact, these definitions were synonymous with such concepts as danger, threat, loss, etc. In them risk was seen as an uncertainty that could have a negative, undesirable effect on one or more entities. Thus, risk was seen as equivalent to threat.

However, since 1997, publications began to appear that offered either a neutral definition risk as an uncertainty that may affect one or more objects (where the type of impact has not been determined), or a broader definition, including both the disadvantages and advantages of risk. In other words, it was about risk which can have a positive or negative effect on one or more objects. Hence, for example, the following definition, which can be considered not only relatively short, but also balanced: risk is “a condition in which there is a possibility of deviation from the desired result, which is expected or hoped for”.

As a result, since about 2000, the apparent majority of newly published or republished official standards relating to management risk in economics and finance, unequivocally considered risk as including not only threats, but also opportunities. At the same time, it should be taken into account that in some scientific publications and after 2000, in the definition risks references were made to previous official publications (in this case, the reference was made to one of the works of the British Banking Association in 1999).

At present, the point of view in the economic literature looks more modern, according to which some risks lead to breakthroughs or benefits, while others have purely negative consequences. In general, the prevailing view is that risk is an event associated with a hazardous process that may or may not occur. And three outcomes are possible: losses, profit and no changes.

However, this remark concerns only economic science.

concept risk often used in connection with the term uncertainty. The well-known distinction between risk and uncertainty, due to Frank Knight, is that risk is a calculated uncertainty. This provision has been repeatedly criticized.

Risk often distinguished from uncertainty because of the difference between the impossibility of calculating uncertainties and the computable nature risks based on the possibility of probabilistic knowledge. Other researchers reject this view, noting that actual practices in the field do not really distinguish between risk and uncertainty in this area. Risk and uncertainties are not two various types objects. Uncertainties become risks how soon they appear in the management area.

The emphasis on whether uncertainty is a subjective or objective moment seems to some researchers inappropriate. Both components are necessary for risk to exist. For example, a person jumping out of an airplane without a parachute does not face any risk, since he will definitely die (no uncertainty).

There are some points in the literature that unite risk with uncertainty.

Risk refers to uncertainty about the severity of the consequences or outcomes of activities related to human values.

Risk is directly related to the uncertainty of the result, actions and events.

Risk it is a situation or event when something related to human worth (including people themselves) is in question and when the outcome is uncertain.

Risk it is the indeterminate consequence of an event or action given human value.

Risk equals a combination of two dimensions about events or consequences and their associated uncertainties.

Risk is the uncertainty about the consequences (or outcome) of actions given human value.

Risk exists in any situation where there is uncertainty. And even more so when the stakes are high or the potential payoff is great.

We also note combinations risk with different conditions.

Risk and probability. While certain definitions of risk focus only on the possibility of a certain event occurring, more comprehensive definitions will include both the possibility of a certain event and its consequences. For example, the possibility of a serious earthquake may be small, but the consequences of it will be so catastrophic that it will qualify as a very high risk event.

Risk and a threat. This comparison is carried out in some disciplines. A threat is, in principle, an event with a small probability, but with very large negative consequences when analysts may not be able to estimate the likelihood. Risk, on the other hand, is defined as a high probability event where there is sufficient information to assess both the likelihood and the consequences.

Some definitions risk tend to focus only on the reverse side of scenarios, while others consider the full variety risk.

It must be emphasized that risk in different industries it is customary to determine different ways. For example, the definition risk in technology, it looks like a product of the probability of an event that is considered undesirable and an estimate of the expected damage from the event. Against, risk in finance is defined in terms of the volatility of the return on investment, even when that return has a positive outcome.

As noted in the literature, in general, the approach to the definition of the term risk in different areas of knowledge can be expressed in several ways.

- Risk equivalent to possible losses.

- Risk tantamount to potential harm.

- Risk is the probability of an unfavorable outcome.

- Risk is a measure of the likelihood and severity of an adverse effect

- Risk it is a combination of probability and degree of consequences

- Risk equals the trinity of a scenario, the likelihood of a scenario, and the consequences of that scenario

- Risk it is a two-way combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties.

- Risk refers to the uncertainty of the result, actions and events

- Risk it is the indeterminate consequence of an event or action associated with human values.

There are other ways to understand risk. They are usually related to economic risk and the field of decision analysis. In the first case, we are talking about expected losses. On the one hand, results and consequences, as well as utility, are taken into account. Expected utility or harm provides the basis for rational choices. According to this definition, the preferences of decision makers are part of the concept risk. The result is a confounding of scientific assessments of uncertainties about utility or benefit with decision makers' preferences regarding different values ​​of benefit and associated opportunities. There is a point of view that this position related to preferences and values ​​should not be part of the concept of risk and risk assessment. Of course, there is a high level of arbitrariness in choosing what appears to be advantageous, and many decision makers are unwilling to determine the advantage, as this reduces their flexibility in weighing different points in specific cases. Risk can also be described when decision makers are unable or unwilling to determine what exactly they see as a benefit.

Another definition is related to situations where we are talking about objective probabilities for the randomness that appears before decision makers. In the economic literature, traditionally, a distinction is made between an objective situation and uncertainty, which is one way or another based on a subjective basis. Although this definition is often used, it is rarely used in practice. It breaks the intuitive interpretation risk which refers to situations of uncertainty and lack of predictability. In addition, it generally does not coincide with the vast majority of definitions of risk.

Lately risk increasingly seen as a combination of threat and opportunity. Those who want high returns must be prepared to deal with a high percentage of risk. Connection between risk and return on investment is most visible when dealing with investment choices. The stock market is more dangerous than investing in bonds, but can bring more profit. It is clear that the level decision risk is key to business success. However, this approach is typical only for economic literature. One of the most fundamental ideas in existence is that the outcome of decisions should be measured in terms of gain or loss, and not in terms of overall profit.

A more general solution is expressed in a different perspective: risk is the probability of an accident involving financial loss or death. However, there is also a tendency to understand that risk is always a threat.

Another approach overlooked by most authors is that risk is the level of difference between the result and the expected. In this case, we are talking about an unconventional point of view, which, however, deserves attention.

The conclusions from what has been said are obvious.

First, a general understanding of the concept risk no. There are also no symptoms of approaching him. This is largely due, it seems to me, to the fact that this concept is used in various branches of knowledge and action. For example, in medicine, the possible damage is calculated, and the gain is only implied, while in economics they try to calculate both in advance. In many areas of contact with respect to the term risk Hardly ever.

Secondly, from my point of view, the literature is dominated by the approach of theorists, not practitioners. In principle, this is natural, but this inevitably leads to problems with the latter's understanding of the essence of the ideas under discussion.

Thirdly, it can be assumed that in the foreseeable future, further debates regarding this concept, for the reasons indicated above, will not lead to a fundamental change in the current situation.

From my point of view, the classical opposition between risk and uncertainty since Knight's time does not work practically anywhere. Actually risk grows out of uncertainty. No uncertainty risk.

Grade risk includes analysis risk and the actual evaluation risk. In other words, the score risk itself represents risk, because it always deals with uncertainty, and therefore the possibility of error.

It seems to me that there has been a trend in the last decade and a half to stipulate that risk is a dual unity of gain and loss, on the one hand, is completely fair, but on the other, under the current conditions, leads nowhere. In the vast majority of the world's languages risk always associated with the possibility of loss. In the vast majority of areas of science, too. It is possible that at the present stage, for further progress, it is better to fix this circumstance, albeit for a while.

It seems to me that, from the point of view of current practice, talking about risk can only be instrumental and situational. Subsequently, the circumstances and the progress of science may, of course, change. However, this may only be over time.

Risk- this is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production and economic or any other activity.

Adverse situation or unfortunate outcome while there may be:

• lost profit;
• loss (loss of own funds);
• no result (neither profit nor loss);
• loss of income or profit;
• an event that may result in loss or loss of income in the future.

Main characteristics of risks

economic nature. Risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic concepts related to the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It appears in the area economic activity enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profits and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of implementation.

Objectivity of manifestation. Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activity of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of its activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

Probability of occurrence. It is manifested in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the course of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, however, the probabilistic nature financial risk is a permanent feature.

Uncertainty of consequences. The consequences of a financial and economic transaction depend on the type of risk and may vary in a fairly significant range. In other words, the risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of its additional income. This characteristic of risk means the non-determinism (lack of patterns in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.

Expected adverse effects. Although the consequences of the manifestation of risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of the effectiveness of financial and economic activities, the risk in economic practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

Level variability. The level of risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a particular line of business of the enterprise is not unchanged. It changes over time (depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent effect on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of the invested financial resources, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate on, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors which are in constant flux.

Subjectivity of the assessment. Despite the fact that risk as an economic phenomenon has an objective nature, its estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels of completeness and reliability of the information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Risk classification

• Technogenic risks are the risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution).
• natural risks are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake).
• Mixed risks- these are risks that represent events, but are associated with human economic activity (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

• Political risks- these are the risks of direct losses and losses or shortfalls in profits due to adverse changes in the political situation in the state or the actions of local authorities.
• Social risks are the risks associated with social crises.
• Environmental risks— these are the risks associated with the likelihood of civil liability for causing damage to the environment, as well as to the life and health of third parties.
• Commercial risks are the risks of economic losses arising in any commercial, industrial and economic activity. Commercial risks include financial risks (associated with the implementation of financial transactions) and production risks (associated with the production of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities).
• Professional risks are the risks associated with doing professional duties(for example, risks associated with the professional activities of doctors, notaries, etc.).

• Forecasted risks are the risks associated with the cyclical development of the economy, the change in the stages of the financial market, the predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the category of risks. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.
• Unpredictable risks These are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.

According to this classification feature, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Types of risks by sources of occurrence:

• External (systematic or market) risk It is a risk that does not depend on the activities of the enterprise. This risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, the financial market situation changes, and in a number of other cases that the enterprise cannot influence in its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, tax risk.
• Internal (non-systematic or specific) risk is a risk that depends on the activities of a particular enterprise. It may be associated with unskilled financial management, inefficient structure of assets and capital, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) operations with a high rate of return, underestimation of economic partners and other factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective risk management.

• Tolerable risk is a risk, the losses on which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit on the operation being carried out.
• Critical Risk is the risk, the losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the operation being carried out.
• catastrophic risk— this is the risk, the losses on which are determined by the partial or complete loss of own capital (may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

• simple risk characterizes the type of risk, which is not divided into its individual subspecies. For example, inflation risk.
• Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subspecies. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a specific financial instrument).

• The risk entailing only economic losses, carries only negative consequences (loss of income or capital).
• Lost profit risk characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, if a credit rating is lowered, an enterprise cannot receive the necessary loan).
• A risk that entails both economic loss and additional income (« speculative financial risk inherent, as a rule, speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

• Constant risk characteristic for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.
• Temporary Risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of insolvency of the enterprise.

• Insured risks— these are the risks that can be transferred in the order of external insurance to the relevant insurance companies.
• Uninsurable risks— these are risks for which there is no offer of corresponding insurance products in the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very mobile and is associated not only with the possibility of their forecasting, but also with the effectiveness of implementation. certain types insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the prevailing forms of state regulation of insurance activities.

• high risks are the risks that are high frequency the occurrence of damage.
• Medium risks are risks that are characterized by an average frequency of damage.
• Small risks are risks that are characterized by a low probability of occurrence of damage.

Risk is a key characteristic modern world. It manifests itself at different levels and in various forms. Therefore, before starting to study the problems associated with the organization and functioning of insurance, it is necessary to discuss more fundamental doctrines, in particular the concept of risk. A detailed analysis of the concept of "risk" will explore ways to overcome the consequences of its implementation, which is summarized in the ideas underlying the risk management system (risk management). In this regard, insurance can be considered, although very important, but still as one of the many alternative methods of risk management. Such logic will help to better understand the role and place of insurance as a public institution, as well as its features as a specific business area.

RISK

As a result of studying this chapter, the student should have an idea of:

• what is risk and what are its structural characteristics;
• what is economic risk and what is its specificity;
• what classifications of risks are possible and by what characteristics;
• what are the risk classification criteria applied for each of the risk characteristics;
• What is meant by homogeneity of risks?

Keywords: risk, uncertainty, structural characteristics of risk, hazard, risk exposure, vulnerability, interaction with other risks, economic risk, risk classification criteria, risk homogeneity.

The concept of risk

What is risk?

The question posed in the heading of this subparagraph at first glance seems to be extremely controversial, since risks and the uncertainty associated with them constantly surround us in reality. Therefore, we intuitively understand the meaning of these concepts without additional explanations from knowledgeable people, explanatory dictionary or textbooks. It is enough to watch news broadcasts on TV to realize that natural and man-made disasters constantly occur in the world. They bring death and suffering to people, lead to the destruction and annihilation of material objects, cause direct and indirect financial losses.

Even in everyday life, people are exposed to risks. Among them are the risks of morbidity, mortality, dismissal from work, etc. When these events occur, there can be both non-economic consequences (for example, loss of health due to illness or depression due to job loss) and economic damage. The latter can be subdivided into direct (expenses for treatment, etc.) and indirect (in particular, loss of earnings due to illness).

Every day we make decisions about everyday things, each of us is faced with uncertainty. Thus, when planning a daily commute, it is natural to take into account the possible uncertainty associated with the absence or violation of the schedule of public transport, or, in the case of using a private car, the likely occurrence of traffic jams.

An even greater degree of risk and uncertainty relate to the business sphere. Managers of each company must make daily decisions about sales, purchases, organization of work of production and other departments of the company. At the same time, they are faced with changing market conditions, the actions of competitors, changing consumer preferences, environmental restrictions, peculiarities of legislation and other factors. Moreover, the increasing complexity of business practices makes it critical to address business risk and uncertainty.

The activities of the state are also associated with the emergence and implementation of various risks. One of the functions of the state as a public institution in general is to protect the population from certain types of risks associated with the peculiarities of the social interaction of citizens (security, defense, etc.). In addition, state institutions themselves may face the uncertainty of their functioning.

Note!

Risk and uncertainty constantly surround us in reality.

In connection with the above, the concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty" are often used in everyday speech. So, according to the frequency dictionaries of the Russian language, these and cognate words are used more often than the word "cat".

However, such a wide use of these words also causes problems with a clear definition of these concepts, since they, apparently, can be understood differently by different people.

Indeed, the word "risk" in relation to business can mean completely different things. In particular, risk can be understood as:

• the potential possibility (danger) of the occurrence of a probable event or a set of events that cause certain material damage;
• the possibility of shortfall in profits or income;
• characteristics of the manifestation of damage - the frequency of occurrence and (or) severity (size) of damage;
• insured object that may be damaged.

Thus, the words "risk" and "uncertainty" are overloaded with different meanings, which makes it difficult to understand them unambiguously. Let's consider these concepts in more detail.

Note!

The terms "risk" and "uncertainty" are ambiguous, so it is necessary to clarify their meaning if it is not clear from the context.

Uncertainty in the outcome of a situation, which can sometimes be assessed, predicted, and thereby reduce adverse consequences

Definition, types and functions of risk, psychological aspects of risk, risk management and assessment

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Risk is the definition

Risk is the possibility of danger, failure, random action in the hope of a happy outcome. The risk finds its manifestation through damage, that is, it is associated with the probability of death or damage to the object. And the less the risks are studied, the greater the damage. In this regard, there is a need to collect and analyze information about various adverse events in order to identify general development trends and patterns of their manifestation.

Risk is a characteristic of a situation that has an uncertain outcome, and prerequisite is the presence of adverse effects. Risk is understood as uncertainty, or the absence of any possibility of obtaining reliable information about a favorable outcome in the current situation under given external circumstances.

Risk is combination of the likelihood and consequences of adverse events. Also, a risk is often called a directly anticipated event that can bring harm or loss to someone.

Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the reputation of the company, leads to gains or losses in monetary terms.

Risk is the probability of a possible unwanted loss of something in a bad combination of circumstances.

Risk is accidents or dangers that are possible, but not inevitable, and may be the causes of losses.

Risk is possible risk of any adverse outcome.

Risk is quantification of hazards, defined as the frequency of one event when another occurs.

Risk is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production and economic or any other activity.

Risk is the likelihood of losses or shortfalls in income compared to the predicted option.

Risk is the probability (threat) of the loss by the enterprise of part of its resources, shortfall in income or the appearance of additional costs as a result of certain production and financial activities.

Risk is the possibility of a negative deviation between planned and actual results, i.e. the risk of an adverse outcome per expected event.

Risk is an action (deed, deed) performed under the conditions of choice (in a situation of choice in the hope of a happy outcome), when in case of failure there is an opportunity (degree of danger) to be in a worse position than before the choice (than in case of failure to perform this action).

Risk is activities related to overcoming uncertainty in a situation of inevitable choice, during which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and deviation from the goal.

Risk is economic category. As an economic category, it represents an event that may or may not occur. In the event of such an event, three economic outcomes are possible: negative (loss, damage, loss); null; positive (gain, benefit, profit).

Risk is an action performed in the hope of a happy outcome on the principle of luck - no luck.

Risk Characteristics

Risk always assumes the probabilistic nature of the outcome, while basically the word risk is most often understood as the probability of obtaining an unfavorable result (loss), although it can also be described as the probability of obtaining a result different from the expected one. In this sense, it becomes possible to speak of both the risk of loss and the risk of excess profit.

In financial circles risk is a concept related to human expectations of the occurrence of events. Here it may refer to a potentially undesirable effect on an asset or its characteristics, which may result from some past, present or future event. In common usage, risk is often used synonymously with the likelihood of loss or threat.

In professional risk assessments, risk usually combines the likelihood of an event occurring with the impact it could produce, as well as the circumstances surrounding the event's occurrence. However, where assets are valued by the market, the probabilities and impacts of all events are integrally reflected in the market price, and the risk therefore arises only from a change in this price; this is one of the consequences of the Black-Scholes theory of estimation. From the RUP (Rational Unified Process) point of view, a risk is an active/developing process factor that has the potential to negatively affect the course of the process.

Historically, the theory of risks is associated with the theory of insurance and actuarial calculations.

Currently, risk theory is considered as part of crisisology - the science of crises.

The main characteristics of the risk include:

Economic nature;

Objectivity of manifestation;

Probability of occurrence;

Uncertainty of consequences;

Level variability;

Subjectivity of the assessment;

Availability of analysis;

Significance.

The economic nature of risk means that risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic concepts associated with the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It manifests itself in the sphere of economic activity of the enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of financial and economic activities.

Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activity of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of its activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

The probability of occurrence is manifested in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the course of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, however, the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

The uncertainty of the consequences of a financial and economic transaction depends on the type of risk and can fluctuate in a fairly significant range. In other words, the risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of its additional income. This characteristic of risk means the non-determinism (lack of patterns in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.

The expected unfavorable consequences implies that although the consequences of a risk manifestation can be both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, the risk in economic practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

The variability of the level lies in the fact that the risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a particular line of business of the enterprise is not unchanged. It changes over time (it depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent effect on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of the invested financial resources, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate in the financial market, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors that are in constant dynamics.

The subjectivity of the assessment means that despite the fact that the risk as an economic phenomenon has an objective nature, its estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels of completeness and reliability of the information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

The presence of an analysis implies that the risk exists only when the subjective opinion of the “assuming” about the situation is formed and a qualitative or quantitative assessment of the negative event of the future period is given (otherwise it is a threat or danger);

The significance of the risk lies in the fact that the risk exists when the proposed event is of practical importance and affects the interests of at least one subject. There is no risk without belonging.

Risk classification

According to the factors of occurrence:

Economic (commercial) risks.

Political risks are understood as risks caused by a change in the political situation that affects business activities (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods, hostilities in the country, etc.).

Economic risks include risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (inability to fulfill payment obligations in a timely manner), changes in the level of management, etc.

According to the nature of the account:

External risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience (social groups, legal and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activities of a particular enterprise). The level of external risks is influenced by a very large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.

Internal - risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is influenced by the business activity of the enterprise management, the choice of the optimal marketing strategy, policies and tactics, and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety measures.

By the nature of the consequences:

Pure risks (sometimes also called simple or static);

Speculative risks (sometimes they are also called dynamic or commercial);

Pure risks are characterized by the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. The causes of pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.

Speculative risks are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. Reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation, etc.

By area of ​​origin:

Production risk;

Commercial risk;

financial risk;

insurance risk.

This classification is based on areas of activity, it is the largest group.

In terms of prevalence:

Global risks;

Global risks are understood as such risks, the emergence of which does not depend on the will of any subjects, most often they are of an objective nature. The consequences of the onset of such risks affect the interests of all subjects of risk management. They (risks) are extremely burdensome, and their overcoming requires significant economic and financial costs.

Moreover, the list of tools that can be used to manage such risks is extremely limited precisely because of the wide coverage of those affected by negative consequences.

Quite often, such risks include natural disasters - typhoons, earthquakes, floods. However, at the same time, such risks include political risks, under which broad sense understand the risks of changing political regimes, social unrest and unrest, wars and their consequences.

Private risks, in contrast to global ones, are quite local, both in terms of the nature of their origin and exposure to the consequences of such risks.

It is quite difficult to draw a clear line separating global and private risks. However, the main criterion should be not so much the nature of the risk as the risk exposure of risk management subjects.

For example, a fire can damage or completely destroy an individual homeowner's home assets, while a forest fire can burn vast areas of forests, destroy hundreds of private properties, and kill many people.

By type of hazard:

man-made risks are risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution);

Natural risks are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake);

mixed risks are risks representing events of a natural nature, but associated with human activities (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

Foresight:

Projected risks are risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, the change in the stages of the financial market, the predictable development of competition, etc.;

unpredictable risks are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.

The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the category of risks. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.

According to this classification feature, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Potential damage:

Permissible risk is risk, losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit on the operation being carried out;

Critical risk is risk, losses on which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the operation being carried out;

Catastrophic risk is risk, the losses on which are determined by the partial or complete loss of equity capital (may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

According to the complexity of the study:

A simple risk characterizes the type of risk that is not divided into its individual subspecies. For example, inflation risk;

Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subspecies. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a specific financial instrument).

For financial implications:

A risk that entails only economic losses has only negative consequences (loss of income or capital);

Loss of profit risk characterizes a situation where an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, if a credit rating is lowered, an enterprise cannot receive the necessary loan);

The risk entailing both economic losses and additional income (“speculative financial risk”) is inherent, as a rule, in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

By the nature of manifestation in time:

Constant risk is typical for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.;

Temporary risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of insolvency of the enterprise.

Possibility of insurance:

Insured risks are risks that can be transferred in the order of external insurance to the relevant insurance companies;

Uninsured risks are risks for which there is no offer of relevant insurance products on the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very mobile and is associated not only with the possibility of their forecasting, but also with the effectiveness of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the prevailing forms of state regulation of insurance activities.

By frequency of implementation:

High risks are risks that are characterized by a high frequency of occurrence of damage;

Medium risks are risks, which are characterized by an average frequency of damage;

Small risks are risks that are characterized by a low probability of occurrence of damage.

There are many definitions of risk, born in different situational contexts and different application features. From the most common point of view, each risk (measure of risk) is in a certain sense proportional to both the expected losses that can be caused by a risk event and the probability of this event. Differences in definitions of risk depend on the context of losses, their assessment and measurement, when losses are clear and fixed, for example, “human life”, risk assessment focuses only on the likelihood of an event (frequency of an event) and the circumstances associated with it.

Based on the foregoing, the following types of risks are also distinguished:

Technical risk is the probability of failure of technical devices with consequences of a certain level (class) for a certain period of operation of a hazardous production facility;

Individual risk is the frequency of damage to an individual as a result of exposure to the studied accident hazard factors;

Potential territorial risk (or potential risk) is the frequency of occurrence of damaging factors of an accident at the considered point of the territory. A particular case of territorial risk is an environmental risk, which expresses the probability of an ecological disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or natural disaster;

Collective risk (group, social) is the risk of manifestation of a danger of one kind or another for a team, group of people, for a certain social or professional group people. A special case of social risk is economic risk, which is determined by the ratio of benefits and harms received by society from the type of activity in question;

Acceptable (permissible) risk of an accident is a risk, the level of which is acceptable and justified based on socio-economic considerations. The risk of operation of the facility is acceptable if, for the sake of the benefits received from the operation of the facility, the society is ready to take this risk. Thus, an acceptable risk is a compromise between the level of safety and the ability to achieve it. The amount of acceptable risk for different societies, social groups and individuals is different. For example, for Europeans and Indians, women and men, rich and poor. At present, it is generally accepted that for the action of man-made hazards, in general, an individual risk is considered acceptable if its value does not exceed 10−6;

Occupational risk is the risk associated with a person's professional activity;

Nanorisk (nano-10−9) is a special type of risk associated with the creation and development, research, use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, including a synergistic effect. Unlike the risks of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies - man-made risks associated with the use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, nanorisks are determined by the minimum amount of substance and the minimum amount of energy included in finished products compared to energy-intensive currently existing materials and technologies that allow reaching the level of 10−8 1/year in exceptional cases. With the use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, there is a real opportunity to reach the level man-made risk 10−9 1/year, which is at least an order of magnitude less than the existing one. The probability of death for the population from hazards associated with the technosphere is considered unacceptable if it is more than 10−6 per year, and acceptable if this value is less than 10−8 1/year. The decision on objects, the level of individual risk for which lies in the range of 10−6−10−8 1/year, is made on the basis of specific economic and social aspects. The level of technogenic risk of 10−9 1/year should be fixed by law for all nanomaterials and nanotechnologies.

Within the discipline "Risk Management" the following types of risks are considered:

Subjective - risk, the consequences of which cannot be objectively assessed;

Objective - risk with accurately measurable consequences;

Financial - risk, the direct consequences of which are monetary losses;

Non-financial - risk with non-monetary losses, such as loss of health;

Dynamic - risk, the probability and consequences of which change depending on the situation, for example, the risk of an economic crisis;

Static - a risk that does not change over time, for example, the risk of a fire;

Fundamental - non-systematic, non-diversified, risk with total consequences;

Private - systematic, diversified, risk with local consequences;

Pure - risk, the consequences of which can only be damage or preservation of the current situation;

Speculative - a risk, one of the consequences of which may be a benefit - does not exist by definition, but is a dual random event combining both risk and chance.

By chance, the actual return on investment will always deviate from what is expected. Deviation includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. It is usually measured by calculating the standard deviation of historical returns or average returns from a particular level. Risk in finance has no definition, but some theorists, notably Ron Dembo, have identified very general methods for estimating risk as the "regret rate" expected after a trade has closed. Such methods have been exceptionally successful in limiting bank interest rate risk in financial markets. Financial markets are considered to be the evidence base for common risk assessment methods. However, these methods are also difficult to understand. Mathematical difficulties collide with other social ones such as disclosure, evaluation and transparency. In particular, it is often difficult to say whether a particular financial instrument should be "insurable" (reducing measurable risk by neglecting certain random profits) or can be "played" in the market (increasing measurable risk and demonstrating catastrophic losses to the investor with the promise of very high profits). , which increases the expected value of the instrument). Since measures of regret rarely reflect actual human risk aversion, it can be difficult to determine whether the results of such transactions will be satisfactory. Risk appetite describes a person who has a positive second derivative of his utility function, willingly (in fact always pays a premium) assesses all the risks in the economy, and therefore is unlikely to exist. In financial markets, it may be necessary to measure credit risk, which is likely in various areas of financial activity (direct lending, leasing, factoring), informational choice of moments of action and initial risk, model risk probability and legal risk, if, of course, there are regulatory or civil acts, taken as a result of a series of investor regrets.

The fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the risk that an investor is willing to take, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. For example, US Treasury bonds are considered to be one of the safest investments and provide a lower percentage of income compared to corporate bonds. The reason for this is that a corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the US government. Because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher percentage of return.

V information security risk is defined as a function of three variables:

The probability of the existence of a threat;

The probability of the existence of insecurity;

Potential impact.

If any of these variables approaches zero, the overall risk approaches zero.

Risk functions

The 4 main functions of risk are:

Protective;

Analytical;

innovative;

Regulatory.

The protective function is manifested in the fact that risk is a normal state for an economic entity, therefore, a rational attitude towards failures should be developed. It has two aspects: historical and genetic (search for remedies) and social and legal (the need for legislative consolidation of the concept of "legitimate risk").

The analytical function is related to the fact that the presence of risk implies the need to choose one of the possible solutions, in connection with which the entrepreneur in the decision-making process analyzes all possible alternatives, choosing the most cost-effective and least risky. Depending on the specific content of the risk situation, alternativeness has varying degrees of complexity and is resolved in various ways. In simple situations, for example, when concluding a contract for the supply of raw materials, an entrepreneur usually relies on intuition and past experience. But with the optimal solution of one or another complex production problem, for example, making a decision on investing, it is necessary to use special methods of analysis. Considering the functions of entrepreneurial risk, it should be emphasized once again that, despite the significant loss potential that risk carries, it is also a source of possible profit. Therefore, the main task of the entrepreneur is not to avoid risk in general, but to choose decisions related to risk on the basis of objective criteria, namely: to what extent can the entrepreneur act when taking risks.

Entrepreneurial risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to the problems facing the entrepreneur.

An analysis of foreign literature shows that international economic practice has accumulated positive experience in innovative risk management. Most firms, companies achieve success, become competitive on the basis of innovative economic activity associated with risk. Risky decisions, a risky type of management lead to more efficient production, from which entrepreneurs, consumers, and society as a whole benefit.

The regulatory function has a contradictory character and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive. Entrepreneurial risk is generally focused on producing meaningful results in non-traditional ways. Thus, it allows to overcome conservatism, dogmatism, inertia, psychological barriers that impede promising innovations. This is a constructive form of the regulatory function of entrepreneurial risk.

The constructive form of the regulatory function of risk lies in the fact that the ability to take risks is one of the ways of successful entrepreneurial activity.

However, risk can become a manifestation of adventurism, subjectivism, if the decision is made in conditions of incomplete information, without due consideration for the patterns of development of the phenomenon. In this case, the risk acts as a destabilizing factor. Therefore, although the risk is a "noble cause", it is not expedient to implement any decisions in practice, they must be justified, have a balanced, reasonable character.

The history of the concept of risk

The study of risk is closely connected with the development of probability theory.

In the Middle Ages, the development of mathematics was due, in particular, to an analytical interest in gambling - cards, dice.

In the 20th century, Knight's concept arose: "Risk versus Uncertainty"

In his pioneering work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921), Frank Knight offered an original perspective on the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

“… Uncertainty must be understood in some sense radically different from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. … The essential fact is that "risk" means in certain cases an amount derived from a measurement, while in other cases it is something distinctly not of this nature; these are the far-reaching and critical differences in the relations of phenomena, depending on which one of these two concepts is really present and working. … It will be shown that measurable uncertainty, or proper "risk", we will use that particular term, differs from non-measurable one in such a way that the former is not really uncertainty at all. »

The 20th century saw the emergence of what is known as scenario analysis, which matured during the Cold War, the confrontation between global forces, especially between the US and the USSR, but was not widely adopted in insurance circles until the 1970s, when the oil crisis erupted and sparked a boom. methods of deeper comprehensive foresight.

Scenario analysis is a risk analysis method based on the analysis of project development scenarios. When carrying out scenario analysis, assumptions are formulated and a cash flow budget is calculated for not one, but three to five possible scenarios for the development of events. When the scenario changes, all parameters of the financial model can change.

Firstly, this approach helps to broadly characterize the potential benefits and losses of the project (to compare the scale of possible benefits and losses). Secondly, it allows you to give a probabilistic description of the project as a whole.

To calculate the probabilistic characteristics of the project, each of the scenarios is assigned its own probability of implementation P.

Then the integral characteristics of the project are calculated.

1. Mathematical expectation of NPV:

2. NPV standard deviation:

Knowing expected value and standard deviation, we can try to plot a distribution curve for NPV (most often it is a normal distribution).

Based on this curve, the probability that NPV less than zero. At the same time, this will be the probability that the profitability of the project will be less than the discount rate adopted for calculating NPV.

A significant contribution to the theory of risk assessments was made during the development of radiation and environmental risk assessments, when the theory of “non-threshold risks” triumphed.

Governments different countries make extensive use of sophisticated scientific risk assessment methods to set the most appropriate standards, such as environmental regulation, as already done by the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Psychology of risk

Currently, there are three main directions in the psychological studies of risk.

The first defines risk as "a situational characteristic of the actions (activities) of the subject, expressing the uncertainty of their result for the acting subject and the possibility of adverse consequences in case of failure." Here, the risk is considered within the framework of the concept of supra-situational activity and the theory of achievement motivation.

The concept of motivation to achieve success studies the motivational sphere of a person, which reflects "the desire of the individual for the best performance of activities in a situation of achievement."

The situation of achievement is characterized by the presence of two conditions: the task to be performed and the quality standard for the performance of this task. In this situation, two oppositely directed tendencies are manifested in the activity of the individual: the desire to achieve success and the desire to avoid failure.

Within the framework of supra-situational activity, the risk is always calculated on "situational advantages"; risk is motivated, expedient. This is a risk for something: for the sake of self-affirmation, money, etc.

As noted, “over-situational risk as a special form of manifestation of the activity of the subject is associated with the existence of over-situational activity, which is the ability of the subject to rise above the level of the requirements of the situation, to set goals that are excessive from the point of view of the original task.”

The second direction considers risk from the point of view of decision theory as a situation of choice between alternative or possible options actions.

This position is related to the measurement of the probability of an error or failure of a choice in a situation with several alternatives.

And, finally, the third one studies the relationship between individual and group behavior in situations of risk and represents the socio-psychological aspect of risk.

What the above concepts have in common is that they unanimously consider a risk situation as an assessment situation.

Risk expresses “a predictive assessment of the probability of an unfavorable outcome of a developing (not yet ended) situation. Risk is not a descriptive (attributive) characteristic of the situation, but an evaluation category, inextricably linked with a person's action, his evaluation - "evaluation of himself."

According to this definition, a risk situation arises only when there is a subject acting in this situation. It is important to note that a risk situation can be dangerous if the subject is forced to act in it, but a dangerous situation is not necessarily risky. For different subjects operating in the same conditions, the situation may turn out to be different - risky for one and non-risk for another.

Consequently, the concept of risk is inextricably linked with the idea of ​​the subject's action and can be defined as a characteristic of this action. But the characterization of an action as risky is not attributive, but evaluative. Risk is an assessment of the possibility of carrying out an action, the possibility of achieving a result corresponding to the goal.

In this way, risk is"predictive, pre-action assessment, formed at the stage of organizing or planning an action."

In addition to predictive assessment, a necessary condition for a risk situation is uncertainty. And, if we consider the risk in the psychological aspect, then the main sources of uncertainty are in the acting subject itself. It is he who "weighs" the conditions under which the action will be carried out, the factors affecting the action and its future result.

And ultimately, according to a number of researchers, all sources of uncertainty are subjective and are determined by the ability and limitations of a person to take into account various factors that affect the action and its future result.

Sources of uncertainty can be both external and internal.

External sources have already been discussed above, and for psychological analysis, the identification of internal sources of uncertainty is of primary importance.

If we imagine the structure of activity as a “four-component model”, then internal sources include:

The cognitive component is the content of the reflection in the subjective image of individual properties and characteristics of reality, the properties of integral objects or phenomena, as well as their connections and relationships;

Motivational component - the motive of activity, the purpose of individual actions or a task;

Operational component of activity - plans, strategy and tactics.

Identification of internal sources of uncertainty allows you to understand how the subject forms an idea about the situation, about the future result of the action, which prevents him from acting "for sure" and getting the desired result, which creates a risk situation.

A rather important task is the need to assess the degree of uncertainty and identify factors that determine the criteria for making a decision by the subject about whether he should act, postpone the action or abandon it.

Thus, the factors that determine the criterion for making a decision include the significance of success or the cost of failure of a future action. If the significance is high, the subject is ready to take risks, i.e. “lower the decision criteria and take action.” In situations where undesirable consequences have a high price, the decision criteria increase, the subject's actions become more cautious.

Another factor is the subjective assessment of the costs of achieving the desired result. The more costs an action requires, the higher the criterion for deciding whether it is necessary.

special group factors influencing the choice of criterion is associated with the individual-personal characteristics of the subject. First of all, it is the propensity to risk.

Thus, the psychological study of risk should take place in the following areas:

The study of the reflexive nature of opportunities and limitations as a determining prerequisite for assessing the situation of uncertainty and making decisions in it;

A clearer systematization of sources of uncertainty in a risk situation;

The study of individual-personal features of the reflexive regulation of the subject's actions in a risk situation.

Public perception of risk

The presence or absence of a risky situation, a person's propensity for risk depends not only on social status or on the influence of various factors, but also largely on how a person perceives a risky situation, what image of risk is best known to him.

A number of studies have shown that people are risk-averse when the potential loss is high and risk-averse when the potential gain is high. Or, in other words, the magnitude of the risk depends on “a subjective assessment of the probability of the event occurring.” More specific studies on the perception of probabilities in decision making, when inferences are drawn from probabilistic information, have found that the perception of risk depends on human biases or inclinations.

And, of course, the public perception of risk largely depends on its "semantic image", since in the ordinary sense, risk, depending on the context, has different semantic meanings.

Researchers (in particular, Ortvin Renn, 1992) identify "four main semantic images of risk in public perception":

Imminent Danger ("Sword of Damocles");

Slow killers ("Pandora's Box");

Cost-benefit ratio (Scales of Athena);

Thrill-seekers ("The Image of Hercules").

In the first case, the risk is seen as a random threat that can cause an unpredictable disaster, and there is no time to deal with this danger. This image is associated with artificial sources of risk, which have a great catastrophic potential. This is such an accident that causes fear and a desire to avoid it. This does not include natural disasters - they are perceived as "regular" and therefore predictable, unlike the risk of large-scale technology. This type of risk includes, for example, nuclear power plants.

In the second case, the risk is seen as an invisible threat to health or well-being. The effect is usually distant in time and only affects a few people at a time. These risks are more likely to be learned from others than experienced on the ground. personal experience. Central to such risks is that "a certain degree of credibility is required in the institutions that provide information and manage the hazard." If trust is lost, the public demands immediate action and blames these institutions for everything.

Typical examples are food additives, radioactive substances.

In the third case, the risk is considered on the basis of the balance of income and losses. This image is used by people only in the perception of money gains and losses. For example, betting and gambling, which require complex probabilistic justification. People are usually able to perform such probabilistic reasoning, but only in the context of gambling, insurance.

The fourth image includes the desire of people to feel themselves in a state of risk, to experience thrills. These risks include all leisure activities that require skill to overcome dangerous situations. Such risks are always voluntary and require personal control over the degree of risk.

The listed concepts of risk show that "an intuitive understanding of risk is multidimensional and cannot be narrowed down to the product of probabilities and consequences." The perception of risk varies greatly depending on the social and cultural environment. Nevertheless, for almost all countries there is common feature: most people perceive risk as a diverse phenomenon and integrate their ideas into a joint system in accordance with the nature of the risk and its cause.

People respond to a risky situation according to their perception of risk, not according to an objective level of risk or a scientific assessment of risk. Scientific assessments affect individual responses insofar as they correspond to individual perceptions. And in the individual perception of risk, the magnitude of the consequence has more weight than the likelihood of its occurrence.

In addition, individual risk perception is influenced not only by the assessment of the magnitude of the consequences, but also by the commonness of the risk situation, the presence or absence of group pressure, the social status of a person, his psychological characteristics, etc.

Behavior of subjects in a risk situation

When considering this problem, several aspects are distinguished, the essence of which can be fixed in the form of questions:

What are the features of risk depending on the specific subject carrying out risky activities?

What and how is the peculiarity of risk manifested depending on the sphere in which the actions of the subject are realized?

How do social, psychological and socio-psychological factors influence the choice of risky alternatives by a particular subject?

In order to answer the first question, it is necessary to reveal the content of the concept of "subject".

The subject is the bearer of object-practical activity and cognition, the source of activity directed at the object. From this understanding of this category, the following main types of subjects of social action can be distinguished:

An individual - to the extent that he is the bearer of certain social, psychological and socio-psychological qualities and properties;

Group - is a relatively small community of people who are in personal communication and interaction;

Collective - a social community that unites people who carry out joint activities, engaged in solving a specific social problem;

Social group - a relatively stable collection of people who have common interests, values;

Society - the largest community of people, united according to certain criteria;

Human civilization (humanity) as a real integrity.

The specificity of the attitude of social actors to activities with elements of risk is determined by a number of circumstances. For example, the prerequisites for unequal behavior of members of the management team and performers are created by the fact that it is the former who make decisions that the latter execute. The attitude towards decision-making with a certain degree of risk is influenced by differences in social status - it is usually higher for the management team than for performers.

In addition, differences in attitudes towards risk also depend on which subject - an individual or a group - makes a decision related to risk. The process of group decision-making, in comparison with the individual, has some features: collective decisions, as a rule, are less subjective and are associated with a greater likelihood of implementation.

A.P. Algin notes in his work that “during the experimental study of the processes of group decision-making, the phenomena of shifting the risk of group polarization were discovered, indicating that group decisions are not reducible to the sum of individual ones, but act as a specific product of group interaction. The phenomenon of risk shift means that after a group discussion, the level of riskiness of group or individual decisions increases compared to the initial decisions of group members.

This pattern means that a person acting in a group is ready to make decisions with a greater level of risk than an individual acting alone. It is group pressure that plays a significant role in changing the level of riskiness of decisions made.

The discovery of risk shift has raised the question of why group decisions are associated with greater risk than individual decisions. Several hypotheses have been formulated to explain this phenomenon.

These are primarily the following hypotheses:

The hypothesis of diffusion (separation) of responsibility;

Familiarization hypothesis;

leadership hypothesis;

Utility change hypothesis;

The hypothesis of risk as a value.

The responsibility diffusion hypothesis is based on the fact that "group discussion generates emotional contacts between group members and leads to the fact that the individual will experience less responsibility for risky decisions, since they are developed by the whole group." Group discussion reduces the anxiety of group members in situations of risk. If the supposed risky decisions lead to failure, the individual will not be alone responsible - it will spread to all members of the group.

Thus, according to the responsibility diffusion hypothesis, the group makes a decision with a higher level of risk because the responsibility for it is distributed among all members of the group and this reduces the fear of failure.

The Familiarization Hypothesis suggests that the risk shift is not a group effect per se, but is a "pseudo-group effect", i.e. although it occurs in a group, it actually does not apply to the consequences of group influence. According to this hypothesis, "Any procedure that increases familiarity with a problem that involves risk encourages participants in the experiment to take greater risks about the problem."

Thus, the risk shift is not a product of a group discussion, but the result of courage, riskiness, which manifests itself as more and more knowledge of the problem, “entering” into it during the discussion.

The leadership hypothesis is based on the study of the qualities of group members who are perceived by the group as leaders. This hypothesis states that people who are initially (before the discussion) more inclined to choose risky decisions tend to lead in group discussions as well. Therefore, the ultimate degree of group risk may be the result of the influence of the group leader.

For example, this hypothesis is confirmed by the peculiarities of the actions of groups of offenders. Studies show that about 54-56% of crimes are committed by teenagers not alone, but in groups. Approximately 30% of the surveyed groups had a pronounced leader.

The utility hypothesis assumes that as a result of the exchange of information in the course of the discussion, there is a change in the utility that the decision makers attribute to the available alternatives. As a result of group interaction, the utility of the risk also changes, due to the fact that the subjective values ​​of the value attributed to the risk by individual members of the group become similar.

The hypothesis of risk as a value was first proposed by R. Brown. The main idea is that people value risk and in a group situation, many of them, including "cautious individuals", tend to take more risky decisions in order to increase their status in the group. Therefore, in the context of a group discussion, they change their assessments towards greater risk in order to create an image of themselves as people who are decisive, capable and able to take risks.

Features of the manifestation of risk are associated not only with the activities of specific subjects, but also with the scope of the implementation of the subject's activities.

If we consider risk as a “specific type of activity under conditions of uncertainty”, and activity as “a process of expedient transformation of natural and social reality by a person”, then from this point of view there is a risk of economic, pedagogical, sports, political, professional, etc.

A feature of, for example, occupational risk is that it appears in the form of a possible danger, i.e. a person carrying out a certain professional activity is constantly in a situation of "inevitable" risk. A quantitative measure of the occupational risk of death can be taken as the probability of death of a person per unit of time: for example, per year.

People can take risks in the performance of their professional duties for a variety of reasons: because of a falsely understood pride, for fear of undermining their own prestige in the eyes of others, for the sake of fame or material incentives, a sense of duty, etc.

Sports risk is associated with the study of the attitude of the athlete's personality to risk. Risk for many athletes acts as a pleasure, an emotional stimulus, a special form of physical lift that life creates on the verge of danger. The craving for risk can also be determined by the desire to prevail over the forces of nature, over oneself, to defeat the opponent.

When considering the issue of the influence of various factors on the choice of risky alternatives by the subject, several points of view are distinguished:

The subjectivist point of view - its essence lies in the fact that the decisions that a person chooses are determined by his personal properties and qualities: such as temperament, willpower, etc.;

The situational point of view assumes that the behavior of people in a situation of choice is mainly controlled by the external environment: organizational structure enterprises, funds mass media etc.;

The third point of view combines the two previous positions, therefore it is the most objective and is based on the “recognition of the expediency to distinguish among the factors influencing the choice of one or another risky alternative or the rejection of risk, social, psychological and socio-psychological, which dialectically interact, mutually influence each other. on a friend."

In structure social factors a special place belongs to phenomena that can be called "general sociological". These primarily include a certain organization of society, the level of development of productive forces, the system of state power, etc. They have an indirect impact on the processes of choosing decisions, risky alternatives, and accepting a certain degree of risk.

The social predisposition of an individual, group, team to accept or reject risk largely depends on the current management structure, organizational environment, etc.

Risk taking is not just personal quality. It manifests itself differently in different conditions.

A.P. Algin notes that “if the planning system is focused primarily on quantitative indicators and is based on administration, then, obviously, there are few daredevils in such conditions to take risks. It is more prudent to abandon risky, albeit more promising actions, decisions ... If reasonable risk is considered the norm in an organization, then employees here will be much more likely to make bold, proactive decisions compared to a team where risk is considered a "social evil".

The choice by the subject of a specific alternative associated with a certain degree of risk depends not only on the influence of the external environment, but also on the action of psychological factors. The choice of solution is influenced by individuality, temperament, psychological make-up, motives, and relatively stable personality traits.

For example, such a volitional quality as decisiveness (a person’s ability to make decisions independently, the subject’s ability to boldly take responsibility for the chosen decision) is necessary in difficult situations when risk-related actions and a choice from several alternatives are required. A decisive person is more inclined to choose risky decisions, in contrast to a person who is dominated by such a quality as caution.

Together with social and psychological factors, the direction of choice and the attitude of the subject to risk are also influenced by socio-psychological factors. These include: belonging of a person to a certain social group, the specifics of interaction between members of the group, its organizational structure, the degree of consistency among members of a group of different interests, etc.

Impact of Risk on Team Cohesion

The impact of risk on team cohesion depends on many factors. Among them, one can distinguish both subjective and objective. The subjective, first of all, include psychological factors that have already been considered earlier, and the assumption that what kind of person is, such a level of decisions in risky situations should be expected from a person.

But T.V. Kornilova notes that "quite significant psychological regularity- discrepancy between individual curves of personality and intellectual development". A person may be ready for some decisions intellectually, but not grow up to them personally, and therefore not cope with the situation.

So, for example, studies show that former losers should not fall into top-class managers (at the level of the board of directors). The fact is that they usually cannot put corporate or other people's interests above personal ones. For this, it is necessary that in a person’s youth the success of achievement motivation be sufficiently reinforced; only such a person will not be afraid of the success of another if his own interests are affected as a result. In other words, the psychological advice of these studies is: beware of failures, they are not inclined to contribute to other people's success, so they cannot be good leaders.

Therefore, naturally, a team whose members are ready to make decisions in a situation of uncertainty and in the past have not often been “losers” will be more united in a situation of risk. This is due, first of all, to the fact that in this group there will be no disagreements and prerequisites for conflict: people are able to put common interests above personal ones and not focus on personal interest in solving the problem.

Also, subjective factors affecting the cohesion of the team in a risky situation include the degree of knowledge or ignorance about the risk. The statement is known that "knowledge about the possibility of an event or its consequences helps to bring it closer or avoid it."

For example, during the Great Patriotic War, knowledge of the possibility of enemy troops entering the city could mobilize and rally the townspeople, since under these circumstances the degree of risk of "imminent danger" increased.

But Kozeletsky Yu. argues that often "knowledge makes us cowards." And it is precisely from the knowledge of the degree of risk that the cohesion of the team decreases.

The news of an existing danger, such as the presence of an explosive in a room, can lead to chaos in the group and reduce cohesion to zero.

The objective factors include the phenomenon of the "son of a bitch": here the conflict between the individual and the group is considered.

A person is considered as a carrier of a certain degree of risk for the team. This may be a risk to physical well-being (for example, the appearance in the team of a person prone to physical violence), the risk of losing value orientations (for example, the appearance of a Social Democrat in the liberal party), etc.

And in a conflict with one person, when there is a threat of the collapse of the team, the group integrates, unites, despite the previous disagreements.

Sometimes this phenomenon is caused artificially to integrate the group and increase its cohesion.

In addition, the objective factors influencing the degree of team cohesion include the degree of danger that threatens this team.

It has been established that the degree of group cohesion is linearly dependent on the degree of risk. As a rule, the higher the level of risk, the higher the level of team cohesion.

Thus, we can conclude that, although a risky situation can not only serve as a good reason for organizing subjects, but also disorganize the activities of the team (the phenomenon of “knowledge-ignorance” about the risk), but in most cases the risk situation increases the degree of cohesion of the group.

Creating risk

Creating risk is a fundamental issue for all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because bounded rationality (our mental faculties are overwhelmed, so we limit ourselves to mental shortcuts) significantly devalues ​​the risk of extreme events, because their probability is extremely small for intuitive estimation. For example, one of the leading causes of death, road traffic accidents, is caused by drunken drivers in part because any given driver creates the problem himself, largely or completely ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident.

The above examples: body, threat, price of life, professional ethics and regret indicate that the risk adjuster or expert often faces a serious conflict of interest. The expert also faces cognitive bias and cultural bias, and one cannot always be sure that moral bias can be avoided. The creation of risk is a risk in itself, which increases as the expert is the least likely to be the client.

For example, extremely dangerous events, in which all participants do not want to be again, can be ignored in the analysis despite the fact that the events have occurred and have a non-zero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be removed from analysis for reasons of greed or unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies to error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.

Any decision making under uncertainty must take into account cognitive bias, cultural bias, and terminological bias: "No group of risk assessors is free from 'group thought': accepting obviously wrong answers simply because people are usually socially ill to disagree."

One effective way to address "creating risk" problems is through risk assessment or risk measurement (although some argue that risk cannot be measured, only estimated) is to ensure that scenarios, as a strict rule, must include unpopular and possibly improbable (in a group) with a low probability of high impact "threats" and/or "vision events". This allows participants in the risk assessment to subtly instill fear of the other and other personal ideals so that people act differently for any reason other than following formal requirements and instructions.

For example, a private advanced analyst with an air attack scenario might be able to reduce this threat to the US budget. This could be admitted as a formal risk with a nominal low probability. This would make it possible to deal with threats even though the threats were dismissed by senior government analysts. Even a small investment in diligence on the subject could possibly have thwarted or prevented such an attack - or at least "insured" against the risk that the public administration might be misled.

Fear as an intuitive assessment of risk

At this time, we must rely on our own fears and hesitations to insulate ourselves from circumstances most deeply unknown to us. In his book The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker states: “True fear is a gift, it is a signal of survival, which, however, sounds only in the face of danger. All other unguaranteed fears dominate us in a way that no other living being on Earth allows itself to do. It shouldn't be like this." Risk must be defined to be the way we collectively measure and share this "true fear" - an amalgam of rational doubt, reckless fear, and a host of other "non-quantitative" aberrations in our own experience.

The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways in which human financial behavior changes from what analysts usually explore "rationally". Risk in this case is the degree of uncertainty associated with the return on assets. Recognizing, and respecting, the irrational influence on human decision making can go far on its own to reduce disasters due to naive risk assessments that pretend to be rational, but actually just combine many separate biases into one rational assessment.

What is the difference between risk and threat

In scenario analysis, "risk" is distinguished from "threat". A threat is an unexplored negative event that some analysts may not be able to evaluate in their risk assessment because the event never occurred, and for which no information is available on effective preventive measures (steps taken to reduce the likelihood or impact of a possible future event). ). This difference is most clearly illustrated by the precautionary principle, which seeks to reduce a threat by requiring it to be reduced to a set of well-defined risks before moving on to actions, projects, innovations, or experiments. Threat examples:

Natural disasters: earthquake, flood, tsunami, volcanic eruption, forest fires;

Anthropogenic disasters: nuclear threat, ecological threat.

Risk example:

natural disasters: tsunamis, according to the results of the analysis, may occur with a probability of no more than 1 time in 100 years. The wave height in the affected area will be no more than 10 points on the Richter scale, which will lead to the destruction of the perimeter fence of the enterprise at a distance of 15 meters and the edge of the left wing of the building materials storage warehouse No. 3 (see the attached diagram). The total damage, taking into account possible environmental pollution, will not exceed 173 thousand rubles in current prices. Losses among personnel are possible only in case of gross violation of the rules of action in an emergency. Identification of an emergency will occur in at least 15 minutes, and notification of personnel in 12 minutes. 30 sec. The probability of loss of personnel per employee H = 1x10-12 ... Appendix. Plan of measures to reduce the level of the specified risk and cost estimates.

Risk assessment and forecasting

The means of measuring and assessing risk change as it is widely embraced by different professions, and in fact means such means that can be determined various professions eg a doctor manages medical risk, a civil engineer manages the risk of structural failure, etc. A professional code of ethics usually focuses on risk assessment and risk mitigation (by the professional on behalf of the client, the public, society or life in general).

The risk is mainly assessed by a probabilistic characteristic (a dimensionless value from 0 to 1), but the frequency of risk realization can also be used. The frequency of implementation is the number of cases of a possible manifestation of a hazard in a certain period of time. For example, per year, then the units of measurement can be as follows - 1 / year or people / year, etc.

Two long-established points of view on risk can be distinguished - the first is based on scientific and technical assessments: the so-called theoretical risk, the second depends on the human perception of risk: the so-called effective risk. These two points of view are constantly in conflict in the social, human and political sciences. V last years in connection with the emergence of a new direction in the theory of probability - eventology - the concept of eventological risk arose, which can be considered as the first serious attempt to combine both theoretical and effective risk in one concept.

Eventological risk

Eventology directly introduces man and mind as an eventological distribution into scientific and mathematical research; thus providing an opportunity not only to develop effective eventological models of various aspects of human risk perception, but also to give such a general mathematical definition of "eventological risk" (as an eventological distribution of a certain set of past, present and future events), which, without conflicting with the majority of existing definitions of theoretical and effective risk, absorbs them as numerous private options

Statistical risk is often reduced to the probability of some undesirable event. Typically, the probability of such an event and some estimate of its expected harm are combined into one plausible outcome that combines the set of probabilities of risk, regret, and reward into an expected value for given result.

Effective Risk

While it is usually not possible to directly measure effective risk, there are many informal methods used to estimate or "measure" it. Formal methods most often measure one of the risk measures: the so-called VaR (Value At Risk).

Risk sensitive industries

Some industries manage risk in a highly-defined quantitative way. These include the nuclear and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex set of designed systems could lead to very undesirable results. The total risk is the sum of the individual risks of the individual classes. In the nuclear industry, "effect" is often measured by the level of radiological radiation outside the emitting area, the measurement is often combined into five or six bands, ten gradations wide.

Risks are assessed using event tree methods. Where these risks are low, they are generally considered to be "widely acceptable". A higher level of risk (usually up to 10 to 100 times considered widely acceptable) must be justified against the costs of reducing it and the possible benefits that make it bearable - these risks are considered "tolerable". Risks outside this level are classified as "intolerable".

The "widely acceptable" level of risk has been taken into account by various governments - the earliest attempt was made by the British government and academic researcher F.R. people seem to find it acceptable. This led to the so-called Farmer's Curve of the acceptable probability of risk events versus their consequences.

Such a technique is generally referred to as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), or Probabilistic Safety Assessment.

Risk management

Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.

Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.

Tactics - practical methods and techniques of management to achieve a set goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.

Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.

The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, carries out the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can be carried out only if the necessary information is circulated between the subject and the object of management. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use of information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.

This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.

Whoever owns the information owns the market. Many types of information are subject to trade secrets and may be one of the types of intellectual property, and therefore be made as a contribution to authorized capital joint stock company or partnership. The fact that the financial manager has sufficient and reliable business information allows him to quickly make financial and commercial decisions, affects the correctness of such decisions. This leads to lower losses and higher profits.

Any managerial decision is based on information, and the quality of this information is important, which should be assessed when it is received, and not when it is transmitted. Information now loses relevance very quickly, it should be used promptly.

An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.

Here are the main methods for reducing the degree of risk:

Diversification, which is the process of distributing invested funds between various capital investment objects that are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income;

Acquisition additional information about choices and results. More complete information allows you to make an accurate forecast and reduce risk, which makes it very valuable;

Limitation is the setting of a limit, that is, the maximum amount of expenses, sales, loans, etc., used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, business entities to sell goods on credit, provide loans, determine the amount of capital investment, etc. .;

Self-insurance occurs when an entrepreneur prefers to insure himself rather than buy insurance from an insurance company; self-insurance is a decentralized form, the creation of in-kind and monetary insurance funds directly in economic entities, especially in those whose activities are at risk; the main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities;

Insurance - protection of the property interests of business entities and citizens in the event of certain events (insured events) at the expense of cash funds formed from the insurance premiums they pay.

Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk in the distribution of capital between various types of activities (for example, the purchase by an investor of shares of five different joint-stock companies instead of shares of one company increases the probability of receiving an average income by five times and, accordingly, reduces the degree of risk by five times).

Sources and links

smoney.ru - analytical business weekly

en.wikipedia.org - a resource with articles on many topics, the free encyclopedia Wikipedia

grandars.ru - economist's encyclopedia

risk24.ru - risk management, enterprise risk management

askins.ru - website about insurance and risk management

bibliotekar.ru - e-library Librarian.Ru

stroifinanc.ru - StroyFinance

allbest.ru - global network of abstracts

psyh.ru - site of the magazine "Our psychology"

radiuscity.ru - site of the magazine "Radius City"

1atoll.ru - site of the production and commercial company "Atoll"

risk-manage.ru - community of risk managers, website "Risk Management in Russia"

youtube.com - YouTube, the largest video hosting in the world

images.yandex.ru - search for images on the Internet through Yandex