Strategic analysis of the macroenvironment. General characteristics and main features of the methods of strategic analysis. Analysis of the strategic portfolio of the organization

Identification of key competencies of the organization and their assessment

Analysis of the strategic portfolio of the organization

Literature: (some are in in electronic format, 2,3,4 exactly)

1.R. Kaplan, D. Norton. a strategy-oriented organization. M. CJSC "Olymp-business", 2004

2. Strategies that work. The BCG Approach, 2nd Edition. Mann, Ivanov and Ferber, 2007

3. K. Fleischer Strategic and Competitive Analysis, Moscow, BINOM, 2005

4. Grant. Modern Strategic Analysis, Peter, 2008

5. Lake. Strategic Planning Workshop, 2006

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Analysis of the business environment is the initial process of strategic planning, during which the organization collects and processes the information necessary for making strategic decisions. Moreover, without such information, the organization cannot establish its strategic development goals.

3 main components of business environment analysis

1. Analysis of the macroenvironment

2. Analysis of the immediate environment of the organization

3. Analysis of the internal potential of the company

The first 2 elements are related to the external environment. Their main task is to determine what opportunities and what strategic challenges the company may face in the future.

The analysis of the macroenvironment includes the analysis of the main environmental factors that the organization cannot influence.

It is necessary to accurately determine the possibilities of analyzing the macroenvironment. Analysis of the macroenvironment is not aimed at accurately predicting the future state of environmental factors.

Strategic analysis macroenvironment allows :

1. Help the organization understand current and potential changes and assess the direction of their development, as well as assess how current or future events may affect the operation of the enterprise. In addition, this analysis allows assess the degree of risk in making certain decisions.

2. Allows you to provide important information or the initial prerequisites for making major strategic decisions.

3. Regular analysis of environmental factors allows you to form strategic mindset from managers and economists.

The main task is to identify the most significant changes that have already occurred or may occur, assess the degree of their impact on the organization and develop solutions to take advantage of favorable changes or counteract negative changes in the external environment.

In the process macroenvironment analysis it is necessary to take into account such Aspects how:

1. Redundancy available to the organization information on the state of numerous environmental factors, despite the fact that most of these factors cannot be directly taken into account in the process of developing a strategy

2. Insufficient amount of useful information, allowing to predict future changes, because most of the available materials are not suited for evaluation and decision making

3. Received information heterogeneous, obtained in different periods of time, is characterized by varying degrees of reliability, generalization and concretization, which significantly complicates its use. Example: we sell expensive clothes. You can find out how the demand changes even on a monthly basis. But we do not have enough concretization. Let's say we even found research on the clothing market. But we have expensive clothes. If we do not pay for the research, then more often than not we will find that the information is out of date.

Abroad, a significant amount is paid to the analysis of the macroenvironment. Since the end of the 50s. analysis tools are being developed and many countries are using at least some elements of strategic macroenvironment analysis at least.

As the main methods of strategic analysis of the macroenvironment are used:

1. PEST analysis ... It consists in identifying and assessing individual factors of the macroenvironment for the results of the current or future activities of the organization. Assumes the grouping of environmental factors in 4 blocks.

3 main components of business environment analysis

1. Analysis of the macroenvironment

2. Analysis of the immediate environment of the organization

3. Analysis of the internal potential of the company

The first 2 elements are related to the external environment. Their main task is to determine what opportunities and what strategic challenges the company may face in the future.

The analysis of the macroenvironment includes the analysis of the main environmental factors that the organization cannot influence.

Strategic analysis of the macroenvironment allows :

2. Allows you to provide important information or the initial prerequisites for making major strategic decisions.

3. Regular analysis of environmental factors allows you to form strategic mindset from managers and economists.

In the process macroenvironment analysis it is necessary to take into account such Aspects how:

2. Insufficient amount of useful information, allowing to predict future changes, because most of the available materials are not suited for evaluation and decision making

As the main methods of strategic analysis of the macroenvironment are used:

Politics.

Economy.

Society.

Technology.

The specific list of factors to be assessed is determined by the organization itself. Political factors are studied in order to clarify for the organization of the intentions of the state in relation to the development of society, the economy, as well as to get an idea of the means by which the state authorities carry out or will carry out their state policy. In particular, the state of legal support, state regulation (antimonopoly, customs, etc.) is studied, political stability is assessed, the possibility of adjusting the main decisions made by legislative and executive bodies.

Economic forces are evaluated in order to study the order of formation and distribution of resources. It is considered as the main element of pest analysis. The study examines, in particular, the exchange rate of the national currency, general characteristics of the ec situation, resource prices, inflation rate, unemployment rate, refinancing rate, cyclical changes, structural changes, and more.

Social environment. The influence of the most important social phenomena on the activities of the organization is analyzed. In particular, population size, age structure, geographic distribution (even distribution by districts of 1 city), family composition, ethnic set, income levels, work, education, leisure, lifestyles, consumption, social values.

Analysis technological components allows you to anticipate the opportunities associated with the development of science, innovative solutions, technologies in order to timely abandon outdated equipment and solutions. More recently added ecological and institutional factors.

The procedure for conducting pest analysis:

a. Study and monitoring macro environment in order to detect actual or potential changes in the selected areas

b. Grade significance changes for the organization, market and industry

c. A detailed analysis of each relevant change and an assessment of the extent to which some changes enhance the actions of others or do not level the actions other factors.

d. Identifying possible action companies in order to prevent severe consequences caused by unfavorable changes and to maximize the use of favorable changes in the macroenvironment.

In the first stage, organizations initially track a large number of factors in order to identify signs strategically significant changes... If such changes are identified, their deeper study or monitoring is carried out, including the identification of the reasons for the change, dynamics and possible consequences. In the process of learning, the organization is confronted with information that reflects future changes in the environment in different ways. If the information adequately reflects the current state or future changes in factors speak of strong signals ... If such information is absent, but there are indirect changes, then they talk about making decisions based on weak signals ... In conditions of stability of development, the absence of serious changes in the external environment, the organization pays more attention to strong signals, and weak ones can be ignored. In a crisis or in case of sharp changes, there is no time and there is a high risk of waiting for strong signals, so decisions are made on the basis of weak signals.

At the second stage, the influence of each selected factor on:

Internal activities organization, i.e. influence on key indicators, on strategy, on competitive advantages, volume and structure of resources

· markets where the company operates, i.e. by volume, structure, segments of buyers and peculiarities of the resource market

· Influence at branch where the company operates, i.e. competitors, suppliers, etc. (an increase in the rent rate, we rent it is bad, our own premises are good, because competitors are bad)

The assessment is carried out in a cut scale of change(does it affect the entire industry or a segment?), direction (improvement or deterioration of work?), rate of change, degree of intensity of impact.

At the third stage, an assessment of the relationship of factors

In the last step, possible actions are considered.

In PEST analysis, preference is given to qualitative assessments than quantitative. Quantification is likely to be inaccurate. + identification of cause-and-effect relationships. A report is drawn up, where the results are summarized in a common vision of the assessed changes and the prospects for analysis. Based on the results of the PEST analysis, EFAS form :

The procedure for drawing up the EFAS form:

1) determined by the result of PEST analysis 5-10 the most significant opportunities and threats external environment;

2) each factor is assigned a certain weight value based on a comparison of their impact on the performance of the organization

3) given organization readiness assessment to respond to the identified changes in environmental factors, i.e. exploit favorable changes or counter threats. The ability to respond is assessed on a 5-point scale (0 - no readiness, 5 - full readiness)

4) is determined weighted estimate of each factor and the total amount ( weighted average) for all opportunities and threats. The resulting assessment allows you to get an idea of the degree of readiness of the organization to change environmental factors. If the weighted average score is low (close to 0.1.2), then the organization not ready to take into account environmental factors, and accordingly risks of loss increase significantly. In these conditions, organizations are forced to abandon sufficiently risky strategic decisions. If the weighted average is high, then the organization can function flexibly on the market and can afford incl. and more risky decisions.

2. Scenario analysis.

Appeared in the 70s. Later PEST analysis. First applied in the practice of Shell (oil refining). Today, scenario analysis is regarded as one of the essential tools planning activities in an uncertain environment. It is used by government organizations, in military science, etc.

Staff games at the end of the 40s. Developed development scenarios. An attack by Germany was anticipated.

Scenario - a certain model of the future, which consistently describes the possible course of events taking into account probabilities their implementation.

The script spells out the most important factors, and taking into account the cause-and-effect relationships, it is estimated further development industry, market, the company itself. As a rule, several scenarios are drawn up, the implementation of which is possible under certain assumptions.

The Ministry of Economics uses scenario analysis in our country. It is widely used in the Russian Federation and abroad. The scenario of the development of the state of the economy of a country depending on changes in some factors (from inflation - in our country, changes in oil prices, changes in the exchange rate).

For example, the Higher School of Economics (in the Russian Federation), if the fuel price is $ 90, then the Russian Federation can reach such and such performance indicators. GDP growth, real income growth. if 70 $, then inflows outflows are calculated foreign investment, stock prices, stock quotes, etc.

The script is always based on one and several key assumptions.

The task of scenario analysis is not an accurate prediction of the future. Yes, this is impossible, tk. all events are probabilistic. The main task is to develop an action plan and assess the prospects for the development of the company. The most probable scenario is taken as the basis for the development of any actions; less probable scenarios can be considered as alternatives that are accepted for development in the event of corresponding changes in environmental factors.

The key factor of uncertainty in the world is what will happen to the euro. Greece's exit from the Eurozone, etc. There are many probabilities that no one can predict. But the largest banks have long been working on scenarios based on various factors (if Greece leaves the Eurozone, etc.). Now banks are working according to the scenario of saving the euro.

There are different scenario analysis methods:

1) quantitative methods (involve the construction economic and mathematical models)

2) qualitative methods (based on the prediction of qualitative changes)

a. intuitive method(pays special attention to qualitative changes by building logical chains of development of events)

b. method peer review (using the Delphi method) - a series of interviews are conducted among experts to assess the most likely changes

c. cross-impact analysis- involves working with experts, but they are invited to evaluate not only possible changes, but also the probabilities of such changes themselves, which allows the scenario to more accurately determine the likelihood of an event occurring and take this into account when developing a strategy.

V 1977 after the introduction of scenario analysis by Shell, it moved up from 6th place in terms of production to 2nd place.

Fortune-1000 Survey Results

1977 - 16% used scenario analysis

1982 - 32%

1985 - 50%

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Currently, a number of methods are used to solve the problems of strategic analysis and select innovative directions for the development of an enterprise. A unified generally accepted classification of these methods (models) does not yet exist. At the same time, the methods used at individual stages of strategic analysis differ from each other both in the tasks being solved and in the very procedures for conducting the analysis. Let's consider the most common and frequently used methods of strategic analysis.

Analysis of the enterprise macroenvironment

A strategic analysis of possible directions of enterprise development is impossible without taking into account the influence of the external macroenvironment. In the external macroenvironment, processes of various functional orientations and dynamics constantly occur, which in one way or another affect the business of the enterprise.

Some processes and trends open up new opportunities for the development of the enterprise's business and create favorable conditions for the organization and implementation of innovative projects and processes. Others create additional difficulties and direct threats.

The process of studying the external environment of the enterprise was called STEP analysis (S - social, T - technological, E - economic, P - political factors). The task of STEP analysis is to analyze the political, economic, social and technological factors of the external macroenvironment of the enterprise in order to identify (synthesis) development trends and external opportunities and threats to the enterprise. The main factors of STEP analysis are presented in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1

Social factors influencing the conduct of business. The study of the social situation in the macroenvironment is aimed at assessing the impact of public health policy, social policy and education, assessment of forecasts social development analysis of the impact on business of such phenomena and processes as cultural norms and values existing in society, people's attitude to the quality of life and work, their professional preferences, the demographic structure of society, population growth, educational level, labor mobility, etc. the social component consists in the fact that it indirectly affects both other components of the macroenvironment and the internal environment of the organization.

Another distinctive feature of social processes is that they proceed relatively slowly and not always explicitly, but often lead to many very serious changes in the organization's environment. It is these processes that have the greatest influence on the formation of consumer preferences, on which the direction and magnitude of consumer demand, and, consequently, the level of the most serious commercial risk - the risk of lack of demand for goods and services, very strongly depend.

Market analysis work force should be aimed at identifying opportunities and limitations in providing the organization with the staff it needs to solve its tasks. The labor market is important for the organization both from the point of view of the availability in this market of personnel of the necessary specialty and qualifications, the required level of education, age, gender, etc., and from the point of view of the cost of labor.

Therefore, an organization must closely monitor social trends that are significant to it in order to be prepared in advance for the onset of their possible consequences.

Technological factors affecting business.

The development of science and technology poses both enormous opportunities and equally serious threats for existing businesses.

The main task of the analysis of the technological block is to timely see the opportunities that the development of science and technology opens up for the improvement of manufactured products and the modernization of the processes of their manufacture and sale. But many organizations fail to see the new perspectives that open up, since the technical capacity to implement fundamentally new (fundamental, fundamental) changes is usually created outside the industry in which they operate. Having been late with the modernization or not having made up their minds in time to make fundamental changes, they are gradually losing their market share, which can lead to extremely negative consequences for them.

Tracking the process of technology development is important not only due to the fact that it is necessary to start using new technological advances on time, but also due to the fact that the organization must anticipate and predict the most appropriate moment to abandon the used (traditional for it) technology. This means that the process of studying the technological component of the macroenvironment should facilitate the selection of such solutions that allow not to be late with the start of the technological update and not to delay too long with the use of once advanced technology and with the production of sometime new product.

Economic factors affecting the conduct of business.

Economic relations in the macro environment determine, first of all, how the organization's resources are formed and distributed. The study of the economic situation involves the analysis of a number of indicators: the value of the gross national product, inflation rates, unemployment rates, interest rates, labor productivity, taxation rates, balance of payments, trends in accumulation and consumption, etc.

When studying economic factors, it is important to pay attention to such factors as the type and degree of development of competitive relations, the general level economic development mined Natural resources, climate, population structure, level of education of the labor force and the value of wages.

When studying the listed indicators and factors for justifying a strategic choice, first of all, it is not the values of the indicators as such that are of interest, but the main trends, that is, what opportunities for doing business this can give in the future.

Also, the scope of strategic analysis includes identifying potential threats to the firm that can

“Disguise” in certain parameters of the economic situation.

It often happens that opportunities and threats go hand in hand. For example, low price labor force, on the one hand, can lead to a reduction in costs, and on the other, it is fraught with the threat of a decrease in the quality of labor. Even such a phenomenon as the default of 1998 turned out to be a threat for some, while for others it turned into new opportunities.

The analysis of the economic situation should in no way be limited to the analysis of its individual components, but should be aimed at comprehensive assessment its condition and related consequences.

Political Factors Affecting Doing Business.

The key process of the political component of the macroenvironment is the struggle of social groups for power. Power, in turn, is associated with the regulation of how money is circulated.

Power, on the one hand, determines how access to money is carried out, on the other, how and in what amount money is alienated from organizations for state needs. Both of these processes are sources of both opportunities and threats to the functioning of the firm.

The political component of the macroenvironment should be studied first of all in order to have a clear idea of the intentions of public authorities in relation to the development of society and the means by which the state intends to implement its policy. Therefore, you can find new business opportunities if you know:

what programs are trying to implement various party structures;
what lobbying groups exist in government bodies;
how the government relates to various sectors of the economy and regions of the country;
what changes in legislation and legal regulation are possible as a result of the adoption of new laws and new rules governing economic processes.

Studying the laws and other regulations that establish legal norms and the framework for business relations, gives an organization the opportunity to determine for itself the acceptable boundaries of action and acceptable methods of defending its interests.

It is very important to clarify the degree of compulsory action. legal regulations, as well as whether they apply to all organizations or there are exceptions to the rules, and finally, an understanding of how inevitable the application of sanctions to an organization in the event of a violation of legal norms on its part.

General features of the study of individual factors of the macroenvironment.

When studying various environmental factors, it is very important to always keep in mind the following two points.

1 All components of the macroenvironment strongly influence each other. Changes in one of the components necessarily lead to changes in other components of the macroenvironment a little earlier or a little later. Therefore, their study and analysis should be carried out systematically, with an understanding of how these changes affect other components of the macroenvironment.
2 The degree of impact of individual components of the macroenvironment on different organizations is not the same. In particular, the degree of influence depends on the size of the organization, its industry affiliation, territorial location, etc. It is believed that large organizations are more dependent on the macroenvironment than small ones. To take this into account when studying the macroenvironment, the organization must determine for itself which of the external factors related to each of the components of the macroenvironment have the most significant impact on its activities.

In addition, the organization should compile a list of those external factors that are potential carriers of threats to it. It is also necessary to have a list of those external factors, changes in which may open up additional opportunities for the development of the organization.

To study the trends in the macroenvironment, it is advisable to create a special system for monitoring changes in the external environment in the organization. This system should carry out both special observations associated with some special events and regular (usually once every six months or a year) assessments of the state of external factors important for the organization.

Observations can be made by many different ways... The most common of them are based on the use of four groups of sources of forecast information:

- the results of factual processing of retrospective data on the development of science, technology and technology;
- the results of the implementation of federal and industry targeted programs on related topics of predictive research;
- “background” forecast data based on contextual search and OLAP-analysis (On-Line Analytical Processing) of Internet resources;
- the results of a targeted survey of the expert community representing industry centers of competence of science, technology and technology.

Opportunities and threats are assessed based on expert ranking and the construction of the EFAS (External Factors Analysis Summary) matrix.

After strategists have scanned the public and operational environment and identified some of the most likely external factors that are particularly relevant to their corporation, they can better analyze these factors using the approach outlined in Table 2.1. One way of reducing external factors to several generally accepted categories of opportunities and threats, as well as analyzing how actively managers of the company (rating) respond to these specific factors in light of the perceived importance (weighting factor) of these factors for the company, is a generalized analysis of external factors. factors presented in the table of type 2.1.

To fill in the EFAS table for the analyzed company, you must complete the following steps:

In column 1 (Externalities), list eight to ten of the most important opportunities and threats facing the company.

Table 2.1 - Table of Results of the Generalized External Factor Analysis (EFAS) for Maytag

External factors

Weight coefficient

ting

Theoretical foundations of the analysis of the external environment

No organization can function in isolation, regardless of the external environment. Organization as open system can survive only in connection with the external environment.

The external environment is factors outside the organization and contributing to the functioning, survival and growth of the organization when used skillfully.

Strategy development logically begins with external analysis analysis of factors that are outside the sphere of constant control of the management of the enterprise and which may have an impact on its strategy.

External analysis is part of the so-called SWOT analysis.

SWOT analysis Is an abbreviation of English concepts (strengths - strength, weaknesses - weakness, opportunities - opportunities and threats - threats). It is an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses firm, an assessment of its capabilities and potential threats.

The main purpose of the analysis of the external environment is to identify and effectively use in the development of a strategy the opportunities and threats that exist at present and that may arise for the enterprise in the future.

Opportunities are positive trends and phenomena in the external environment that can be used to improve the efficiency of the organization.

For example, tax cuts, an increase in the income of the population and enterprises, a decrease in the interest rate, a weakening of the positions of competitors, the development of integration, a decrease in customs barriers, etc.

Threats are negative trends and phenomena of the external environment that can weaken its competitive position or, in the absence of an appropriate response, lead to the complete destruction of the business.

Threats include, for example, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, increased competition in the market, unfavorable demographic changes, stricter government regulation, etc.

The end result of external analysis is the formation of alternative strategic decisions, their assessment and the final choice of a strategy focused on using opportunities and protecting against threats from the external environment.

The external environment (business environment) consists of two parts.

Macro environment;

Microenvironment.

Macroenvironment Is a remote environment that indirectly affects the organization.

It includes, for example, the state of the economy, scientific and technological progress, socio-cultural and political changes, natural phenomena, group interests and events in other countries affecting the organization.

Microenvironment- This is the branch or close environment of the organization, which has a direct (direct) impact or are directly influenced by the main activities of the organization.

This includes all contact audiences such as suppliers, customers, competitors, intermediaries, shareholders, lenders, trade unions and government agencies.

Scientists distinguish four main types of external environment:

1. A changing environment characterized by rapid change. It can be technical innovation, economic changes (changes in the inflation rate), changes in legislation, innovations in the policies of competitors, etc. Such an unstable environment, which creates great difficulties for management, is inherent in the Russian market.

2. A hostile environment created by fierce competition, the struggle for consumers and markets. Such an environment is inherent, for example, in the automotive industry in the United States, Western Europe and Japan.

3. Diverse environments are common in global business. A typical example of a global business is McDonald's, with operations in many countries (and therefore serving many multilingual clients), with diverse cultures and consumer tastes. This diverse environment influences the activities of the firm, its policy of influencing consumers.

4. Technically challenging environment. In such an environment, electronics, computer technology, telecommunications are developing, which require complex information and highly qualified service personnel. Strategic management enterprises in a technically complex environment must be focused on innovation, as products in this case quickly become obsolete.

In practice, various methods of responding to changes in environmental factors are used. The most common among them are the following approaches:

- "fire fighting", or reactive control style. This post-change management approach is still prevalent in many Russian enterprises;

Expansion of areas of activity, or diversification of capital production as a means of possible reduction of commercial risk when changing environmental factors;

Perfection organizational structure control to increase its flexibility. In this case, the enterprise can create profit centers, strategic business units and other flexible structures focused on achieving final results;

Strategic management.

Macro environment analysis (PEST analysis)

Macroenvironment includes general factors that do not directly relate to the short-term activities of the enterprise, but can influence its long-term decisions.

Strategic factors of the macroenvironment are considered to be such directions of its development, which, firstly, have a high probability of implementation and, secondly, a high probability of impact on the functioning of the enterprise.

Changes in the macroenvironment affect the strategic position of the enterprise in the market, affecting the elements of the microenvironment. Therefore, the purpose of the analysis of the macroenvironment is to track (monitor) and analyze trends / events outside the control of the enterprise, which may affect the potential effectiveness of its strategy.

Since the number of possible factors of the macroenvironment is large enough, when analyzing the macroenvironment, it is recommended to consider four nodal areas, the analysis of which is called PEST analysis (according to the first letters of the English words political-legal (political-legal), economic (economic), sociocultural), technological (technological factors)).

Purpose of PEST Analysis - tracking (monitoring) changes in the macroenvironment in four key areas (Table 1) and identifying trends, events that are not under the control of the enterprise, but that affect the results of strategic decisions.

Although, of course, other specific factors of the macroenvironment can influence the activity of the enterprise. Thus, the natural environment affects the activities of agricultural enterprises, construction industry enterprises.

Table 1- PEST analysis

Political and legal factors: - government stability; - tax policy and legislation in this area; - antimonopoly legislation; - laws for the protection of the natural environment; - regulation of employment of the population; - foreign economic legislation; - the position of the state in relation to foreign capital; - trade unions and other pressure groups (political, economic, etc.)	Economic factors: - trends in the gross national product; - stage of the business cycle; - interest rate and exchange rate of the national currency; - the amount of money in circulation; - inflation rate; - unemployment rate; - price control and wages; - energy prices; - investment policy
Sociocultural factors: - demographic structure of the population; - lifestyle, customs and habits; - mentality; - social mobility of the population; - consumer activity	Technological factors: - R&D costs; - from different sources; - protection of intellectual property; - state policy in the field of scientific and technological progress; - new products (update rate, sources of ideas)

There are the following stages of PEST analysis:

1. A list of external strategic factors having a high probability of implementation and impact on the functioning of the enterprise.

2. The significance (probability of occurrence) of each event for a given enterprise is estimated by assigning a certain weight to it from one (most important) to zero (insignificant). The sum of the weights must be equal to one, which is ensured by standardization.

3. An assessment of the degree of influence of each factor-event on the strategy of the enterprise is given on a 5-point scale:

- "five" - strong impact, serious danger;

- "unit" - no impact, threat.

4. Weighted estimates are determined by multiplying the weight of the factor by the strength of its impact, and the total and weighted estimate for the given enterprise is calculated.

The total score indicates the degree of readiness of the enterprise to respond to current and projected environmental factors.