Technological structures in the economic structure. The seventh technological order - cognitive Theories of technological orders

First way (wave)

The first wave (1785-1835) formed a technological paradigm based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy.

The second way (wave)

The second wave (1830-1880) - the accelerated development of transport (construction railways, steam shipping), the emergence of mechanical production in all industries based on the steam engine.

Third order (wave)

The third wave (1880-1940) is based on the use in industrial production electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. Large firms, cartels, syndicates, and trusts appeared. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

Fourth way (wave)

The fourth wave (1930-1990) formed a structure based on the further development of the energy sector using oil and oil products, gas, communication facilities, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, different types weapons, consumer goods. Computers appeared and became widespread and software products for them, radars. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Mass production was organized based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopoly competition. There were transnational and multinational companies that made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

Fifth way (wave)

The fifth wave (1985-2035) is based on advances in microelectronics, informatics, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, closely cooperating in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

Sixth and subsequent orders

According to Maxim Kalashnikov, the sixth technological structure will be characterized by the following directions [ unauthorized source?] :

• Investments in a person, a new level of education system
  • High Humanitarian Technologies, Enhancing Human and Organizational Abilities
  • New medicine (health development, health restoration)

• Robotics, artificial intelligence, flexible systems of "unmanned" production
• Laser technology
• New environmental management (high environmental technologies)
• Compact and ultra-efficient energy, hydrocarbon withdrawal, decentralized, smart power grids
  • Using hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy source
  • Perfect energy storage devices
  • Biofuels from forestry and agricultural waste and marine plants
  • New harmless technologies for the use of coal [ not in source]
• Closing technologies in previous industries (asset, energy and labor saving)
• New types of transport (heavy load, speed, range, low cost), combined transport systems
• Manor urbanization "fabric" type, city-policies
• Production of structural materials with predetermined properties
• Chiping all things and animals [not in source]
• Designing live
  • Technologies for assembling and destroying social subjects
• Designing and managing the future

see also

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See what "Technological order" is in other dictionaries:

Technological order- the concept of the theory of scientific and technological progress, introduced into domestic science by economists D.S.Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev: a set of related industries (interconnected technological chains) that have a single ...

technological order- The concept of the theory of scientific and technological progress, introduced into domestic science by economists D.S.Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev: a set of related industries (interconnected technological chains) having a single technical level and ... ...

Covers a closed reproduction cycle from the extraction of natural resources and vocational training personnel to non-production consumption. Within the framework of the TU, a closed macro-production cycle is carried out, including the extraction and production of ... ... Business glossary

Structure: Economic structure Technological structure List of meanings of a word or phrase with links to relevant articles. EU ... Wikipedia

Technological way- a set of complexes of technologically related industries that have developed in the economy. The technological structure presupposes a single technical level of its constituent industries, connected by qualitatively homogeneous vertical and ... ... Dictionary"Innovation activity". Terms innovation management and related areas

Or "socio-economic structure" type of economy, based on a certain form of ownership of the means of production and the corresponding relations in the course of this production. The economic structure of society may not be limited ... ... Wikipedia

Economic cycles Cycle name Characteristic period Kitchin cycle 3 4 years Juglar cycle 7 11 years Blacksmith's cycle 15 25 years Kondratyev cycle 45 60 years Kondratiev cycles (K cycles or K waves) periodical cycles of the modern world economy ... ... Wikipedia

Technology- 1. According to E. Jancz's definition, a wide area of ​​targeted application of physical sciences, life sciences and behavioral sciences, which includes the whole concept of technology, as well as medicine, Agriculture, management organization and others ... ... Economics and Mathematics Dictionary

technology- A set of methods of processing, manufacturing, changing the state, properties of the form of raw materials, material or half-product in the production process. [MU 64 01 001 2002] technology 1. According to E. Janc's definition, a wide area of ​​targeted application ... ... Technical translator's guide

Capitalization table Local price Taxonomy Customs declaration Customs clearance ... Economics and Mathematics Dictionary

Books

• Methodology and theory of innovative development of higher education in Russia. Monograph, Romanov E.V. Innovative development higher education is considered as an intellectual basis, having broken through a new technological order in the context of the implementation of the concept ...

In our articles, we often use the term "technological order", which denotes a certain stage of technological development in the history of mankind. Society has already passed through five technological modes and today it is living in a period of transition to the sixth, the core of which will be nanotechnology, alternative energy, biology and medicine, cognitive technologies and a number of others. The process of formation of technological structures is closely related to the definition of leaders in the global socio-economic space, therefore, knowledge of the foundations of their origin and development is key in developing an effective strategy for public administration.

What is a technological order?

The concept of a technological paradigm was introduced by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences S.Yu. Glazyev, who today is one of the largest economists in the post-Soviet space. His theory of long-term technical and economic development is one of the most systemic ones that have just emerged in domestic humanities, and the concept of technological orders is pivotal in it. This way of life is a combination of several dominant technologies that determine the nature of socio-economic life in a given period of time. So, during the second technological order (the beginning of the 19th century), steam engines, coal mining and shipping dominated, in the third there was a transition to the development of inorganic chemistry, ferrous metallurgy and the massive use of railway communication, and in the fourth, an internal combustion engine, rockets, airplanes appeared. and nuclear energy.

It is clear that in one article it is not possible to present even a hundredth part of this theory, therefore in our article we will only try to acquaint readers in more detail with what awaits humanity and the world economy in the future, when the sixth technological order reaches its peak in its development. Practice has shown that during the domination of one or another technological order, a nucleus of leading countries is formed, which have managed to most fully develop new technologies and related industries. This provides them with exceptional competitive advantages in front of other countries, as a result of which some become hegemons of the world political space, while others get the fate of "service personnel" and "raw materials appendages." In light of this, it becomes possible to understand which countries will determine the vectors of development of the world economy in the next 20-30 years, since the core of the sixth technological order has practically already been formed, which means that the main contenders for global leadership have been identified.

Leaders of the sixth technological order

The formation of the core of the technological paradigm, as well as the leaders in the development of relevant technologies, is closely related to the volume of investments in these industries that a particular state can afford. Therefore, the leaders in the next, sixth technological order will be those countries that have invested in such areas as, for example, nanotechnology or solar energy, more than others. At the beginning of the 21st century, the countries with the largest budgets are the United States, China, Japan, the locomotive countries of the EU and some others, so it is not surprising that these states are claiming leadership in the sixth technological order, since they were able to invest a sufficient amount of funds at the right time. and in the right direction.

The fusion of applied science and technology audit, modern centers of competence and Soviet experience will make it possible to move industrial policy one and a half cycles ahead. The executive director of Finval Engineering Alexey Petrov and the commercial director of the company Alexey Ivanin told the Military-Industrial Courier what was lacking for the breakthrough.

The 90s severely battered the domestic instrument and machine tool building, other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry is dragging out a miserable existence.

But the military-industrial complex machine-building remains the backbone of the Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially the growth rate, is due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was given the task of setting up the production of a large-scale facility, say, to resume production of the Tu-160. The first steps of her leadership?

- When it comes to creating a production facility for a new product, the leaders of the corporation are first of all faced with the task of competently organizing pre-design work, conducting technological preparation, and choosing the head production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can make such an aircraft. It is necessary to establish large-scale cooperation between the factories. Since the release of the last such machine has passed significant time, a lot has changed - the enterprises participating in the production chain are closed or found themselves abroad. Some of the technologies are most likely outdated, while others are lost. First, you need to create a digital - 3D-model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer - last century... We are talking specifically about a three-dimensional digital model assembled. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a lengthy process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines are not suitable, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is long and expensive. This will be followed by the supply of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and then delivery according to all parameters that were previously installed. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan production cooperation.

- Where is your place in this chain?

- When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology, it is not known to what extent and to what extent. When we solve a problem, then in mandatory we take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, a structure is needed that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor undertakes everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPСM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- It's in the textbook, but what about our reality?

- The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country - in industries that are largely integrated into the world: energy and oil and gas production.

With regard to enterprises defense complex and mechanical engineering in general, the problem is that the customer in most cases simply does not have the opportunity to conclude this kind of contract, since he works in financial and managerial regulations that do not allow to invest in the project in full. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the whole project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but there is no one responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in mechanical engineering. He is in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one proposes to build it in parts. The NPP is leased on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

"You can pump up a hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way."

- This is an energy facility, from there the order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But the project is managed by the energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and terms, the facility is created and produces the required number of megawatts. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it needs to be extended to mechanical engineering. Moreover, talk about this has been going on for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Do not ask the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money has been invested in their factories, but ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop a production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of design, modernization of production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the product lifecycle. In the life cycle of a product, production is only a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed in parts at best.

Initially, engineers develop the design of the product, then an engineering company or a technological institute enters into work, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design and estimate documentation is formed. After that, the data is provided to construction company... We are now the opposite. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. You cannot start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it, and undergoes a state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, which plays a critical role, is not given sufficient attention at this stage. What is the result? The building was built magnificently, the equipment was purchased the most modern, but with careful organizational and technological design money and attention was not enough.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply the universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account without fail at the pre design work or, in modern terms, when conducting a technological audit of a project.

- How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to lay down the pre-design procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here you can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice of the concept of "technological audit" was not, but operated on another - "technological design", which was a mandatory phase for any industrial enterprise... And this was funded in a regulatory manner based on the volume of total capital investments into the project - exactly what is not now.

- Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to return! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be produced. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and still get zero results. Because it may become clear: the required product cannot be made on these machines, or it is required to develop expensive tooling, and many previously unaccounted for circumstances may still open. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear procedure for carrying out work on technological audit and design. And then a high-quality project will be made with a normal feasibility study, which takes into account every step and all costs for equipment, personnel, tooling, etc.

We emphasize once again: we need a systemic order from society and the state. The country participates in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to a deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are ruled by people proceeding from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. It is necessary to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles ahead.

- Who in the country can do it?

- Previously, the industrial policy program was and was implemented in every line ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Each corporation is required to understand: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer, what makes the tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, so the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are responsible not for the tank, but for the factories, which it is not clear what and why they produce. And at an arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, you must first understand - in the production chain of which product it is included, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations and how this will affect the enterprises that are part of the cooperation. You can add one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be viewed as a whole, so we are now talking about what corporate executives need. The factories have many of their own problems, but at the corporation level there are more of them precisely because there are many enterprises, they are different, their managers adhere to different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-established and also significantly different in age and qualifications. And you need to manage them in a unified way. And we propose to do this proceeding from the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to set tasks correctly, ask the right questions to the enterprises that are part of the corporation, and get the right answers in a single format. And again we are talking about technology audit. What's the point if audits at a hundred factories of one corporation are carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? In principle, it is impossible to draw any conclusions on such a shaky basis, because there is no connection to the final result.

- Need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, anyone can do technological design; for this, even licenses are not required and technical education is not required.

By the way, we can create any regulatory documents, but the money for technological design or technological audit must necessarily be included in the budgets of corporations. It is necessary to allocate money for engineering to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he has no opportunity.

- And he starts looking for reserves?

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the composition of the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, so it cannot be done. In construction, there are clear rules for payment for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when determining the cost of pre-design work. You need a clear link to the estimated cost of the object, then you will understand why such money is being requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will actually get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and believe that the company "Finval" does only this.

- How to manage upgrades?

- The main point: when requesting a corporation from an enterprise for financial resources a concept for the upcoming changes should be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are needed, how they are planned to be carried out and why. Modernization should start first of all with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

- Is this a purely financial document?

- Investment rationale cannot be carried out on the basis of financial calculations alone. The concept should be based on technological elaboration. It is necessary to go from the product, to show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only if such information is available, the document will be of interest to the investor.

- Creation of centers of competence is in vogue now. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

- We ardently support the creation of centers of excellence. The modern economy implies ensuring competition through the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also caveats.

- For example, there is a bunch of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that it needs to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each worth two hundred million rubles. This raises the question: is it really necessary to give each plant the requested funding or is it worth creating a single center, where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

- Ideally, such a center also effectively works with orders, fulfills them with high quality and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a center of excellence is being created in the field of foundry, then it should be an expert in this field. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, whose activities are aimed at cutting-edge research and development that can outstrip competitors. But it is precisely in a narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives ground for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both a military and a peaceful theme. If it is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter the world markets.

- Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but today there is no single clear understanding in state structures that there is a competence center. They still believe that this is just a set of machine tools that produce standard operations, typical products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we are in favor of not only having a set of machine tools in the centers of excellence, but also mandatory applied science.

We advocate that the centers of competence have such a composition of equipment and scientific activities that will truly turn our country into a world leader in the field of production. When introducing modern technologies in our centers of excellence, we will create sustainable and innovative products. Yes, at the initial stage it will be products for their factories, and in the future, the participation of competence centers in international exhibitions will take us to a whole new level - the world leader in the field of manufacturing. Competence centers need to take part in leading specialized exhibitions as a separate manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed towards the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian. The number of civil orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but on the scale of Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of production, meeting international standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything turns into “let's save some money, we won't buy machines for everyone, we'll take ten times less, put them in one place”. This is good, but clearly not enough. Lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that instead of a competence center in a couple of years there will be a “garage with nuts”. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can be recaptured only in the external market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the corporation's factories, all of them at once, needed some unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not change the machines there and will be right in their own way. What's the bottom line? The problems of the factories have worsened - there used to be their own equipment, they made this nut on it if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here there is already a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. At 99.99 percent everything is ready, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said that there is nothing for this machine to do at the factory, it turns out that the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost in comparison with mass production. And it must be considered in comparison with the cost in the total product and losses due to the fact that delivery is delayed for months, since they are waiting for a nut.

- Who should decide this question?

- Leaders who make decisions on the creation of centers of excellence. To avoid such absurd situations, among them must be present technical specialists that these risks can be foreseen and voiced. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, is there a regulation in the country for the creation of centers of excellence?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

- Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, our company has a Engineering Technology Center. There not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, training for machine tool operators and technologists is being conducted. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to manufacture a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimal. The price does matter, but the optimum is made up of different things: serial production, risks, the possibility of expanding production, established cooperation, etc. It is one thing to slap nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But all goals cannot be considered primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

It is necessary to create centers of excellence. They will contribute to building up technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and a reduction in production costs. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the Russian army and navy will end and there will be an urgent need to produce competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products, so that the funds spent on the modernization of the military-industrial complex would work for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of centers of excellence is not necessarily the prerogative of government agencies. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings billions in revenues and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and are very successful.

- And we have?

- Everything is somewhat more complicated with us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium-sized enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to take an interest in creating centers of excellence, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technology professionals, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but one should clearly understand what problems they will help to solve and what kind of results the management of corporations wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume production program and the complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing a cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and installing ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the corporation's factories receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have a successful experience in designing such centers.

It should be noted that in the West, tenders are announced for a finished product, our situation is different - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. The centers of competence have equipment, a scientific base, corresponding competencies. Together with all these parameters, our competence centers will be able to participate in world tenders for the supply of specific products.

- Who besides you can solve such problems?

- Probably someone can, if puzzled. But by and large, no one is busy with this yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is to harmonize interaction with factories and build a clear management. This task is being solved in dialogue with us. We can suggest what to look for, help formulate requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be viewed from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult thing.

Today, most countries in the world have a market economy. And the main feature of such a system is its instability. The economy has consistently experienced boom, peak, bust, and depression. But each new cycle introduces changes to the existing technological order, until quantity turns into quality, and production moves to a new level. The impact on the economy of such innovations will be discussed in today's article.

Cyclic development

The growth of a market economy does not follow an upward trend. It is characterized by fluctuations in business activity, which are of a periodic nature. In the neoclassical direction, they are interpreted as cycles around the existing long-term trend.

There are two views on their causes: scholastic and deterministic. The first assumes that the factors that cause the cycle to change are random. Depression in this case is the result of the impact on the national economy of internal and external impulses. The deterministic point of view assumes that cycle changes are caused by well-defined recession or boom factors. Similarly, these two theories explain the change in technological structures.

Business cycle phases

Traditionally, four main types of cycles are distinguished, which differ in duration and are named after the name of the scientist who noticed them: Kitchin (3-4 years old), Juglar (7-11 years old), Kuznets (15-25), Kondratyev (45-60). The technological structures in the economy are precisely connected with long waves. There are four phases in the cycles of entrepreneurial activity: bottom (depression), rise (recovery), peak, decline (recession). They are most clearly manifested in the medium-term fluctuations of Juglar.

Phase features

Depression (bottom) is the lowest point on the production and employment graph. It is believed that this phase cannot be long. But this assumption can easily be refuted throughout history. For example, the Great Depression of the 1930s lasted for ten whole years with small fluctuations in business activity in the direction of growth or decline. However, many scholars believe that such exceptions only confirm the rule.

After the depression, the economy begins to revive. Its feature is the gradual expansion of production and the growth of employment of human resources. This stage is usually characterized by low inflation rates. Innovations with a short payback period are best introduced because the population has not yet recovered from a difficult previous period. In this phase, the demand, which was postponed during the depression, begins to be realized.

Gradually, the economy reaches the top of the cycle. This phase is characterized by the lowest inflation rates. It can disappear altogether, while production facilities are operating at maximum load. During a peak, inflation often rises. Saturation of markets increases competition, leading to falling profit margins and increasing the payback period of innovation. The farm needs long-term lending. Sharply turn the situation in reverse side can only be a new technological order.

The capabilities of the manufacturing sector are gradually decreasing. There is a decrease in investment and business activity. This leads to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in capacity utilization. Gradually, the economy begins to approach a state of depression again. The phases of the economic cycle are repeated again. And this continues throughout the development of civilization.

Obvious reasons for cyclicality

The national economy is the aggregate of resources that provides growing consumption. During its heyday or peak, it is able to fully meet the needs of its population. During depression, most people find themselves below the poverty line. During the peak, investor returns are at their maximum. This leads to the concentration of capital in the economy, which gradually reduces the rate of return. Many investors are starting to leave the country because they do not want to receive less income than before. This provokes the onset of the recession. A decrease in investment volumes leads to a curtailment of production activities, the population's solvency is falling. At the same time, the crisis in one industry is gradually spreading to the entire economy as a whole.

The concept of the structure of the economy

In addition to a decrease in investment volumes due to a fall in the rate of return, the cause of crises is the obsolescence of technology. And NTP often stimulates the peak. The term “technological structure” is an analogue of the concept “wave of innovation”. The latter is more often used by foreign scientists. It was first proposed in the work "Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Management of Scientific and Technological Progress" by D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev, published in 1986.

The way of life, according to scientists, is a set of active breakthrough inventions that provide a qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society. The economic development of the country is directly related to its perception of innovations in scientific and technological progress. The theory of technological orders allowed to comprehend in a new way the concept of cyclicity of Nikolai Kondratyev.

Waves of innovation

Scientific and technical progress and economic growth are closely related. The waves of the technological order are creating entirely new sectors and opportunities for investment and growth. Their development, in turn, stimulates the entire economy as a whole. After the Industrial Revolution, the technological order changed five times. Scientists differ somewhat on the main disruptive technologies. Let's consider each of the structures as interpreted by foreign scientists.

Relation of waves and phases

Economic growth is closely linked to changes in technological structures. The more time passes after the Industrial Revolution, the faster the scientific and technological progress goes. The wavelengths of innovation are getting shorter. The first lasted 60 years, and the fourth only 40. This reflects the growing potential for innovation and the opportunity economic systems take commercial advantage of technological innovations. Innovation is no longer seen as the result of individual effort, but rather organized, collaborative action. The business cycle phase has a significant impact on the development and implementation of technologies. He, in turn, is a factor providing a way out of the crisis. It is difficult to predict which invention will drive the next wave of economic development. Energy saving technologies and robotics are some of the candidates.

The concept of long waves by Nikolai Kondratyev

The scheme of technological orders approximately coincides with the large cycles noted by the Russian scientist. Nikolai Kondratyev was the first economist whose work on this topic received international recognition. Before him, two Danish scientists Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff noted the existence of fifty or sixty-year cycles. But their work has only recently been translated into other languages. In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested that long waves be named after Kondratyev. The theory was further developed within the framework of the Marxist school.

Kondratyev identified three phases of the cycle: expansion, stagnation and recession. Although it is generally accepted to divide into four periods with a turning point between the first and the second. Kondratyev identified two waves in the 19th century. The long cycle affects all sectors of the economy. The scientist himself focused his research on prices and interest rates. Using these characteristics, he described the rise and fall of the economy. The revival of business activity is characterized by an increase in prices and a decrease in interest rates, while a recession is vice versa.

Explaining Big Loops

Many scientists, including Kondratyev himself, tried to figure out why long waves arise. Today, there are four main explanations:

The next technology wave

The global financial crisis of 2008 made people think about the need for dramatic changes in the economy. Have existing technologies exhausted their growth potential? James Moody predicts that new innovations should focus on increasing resource efficiency. The sixth technological order, according to the scientist, will be associated with huge changes in the structure of the market and social institutions.

The basis for human survival is environmental protection. The sixth technological order presupposes not harvesting from numerous resources, but managing the latter to achieve the highest output with the least use.

Technological structure of Russia

The main task of the Russian Federation today is the transition to a new wave of innovations. If the country fails to do this, then it will only have the role of a raw material appendage to the developed states. Modern technological structures are based on energy conservation, the use of nanoelectronics, artificial intelligence. The resources for the growth of the existing production have already been almost completely exhausted, therefore, it is not a gradual modernization that is needed, but its complete reorientation. Russia needs not catching up, but advancing development.

RUSSIA'S TRANSITION TO THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL LAYOUT: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS

Parshin Maxim Alexandrovich 1, Kruglov Denis Anatolievich 2
1 Financial University under the Government Russian Federation, student of the Department of Monetary Relations and Monetary Policy
2 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, student of the Department of State and Municipal Finance

CROSSOVER OF RUSSIA TO THE NEW TECHNOLOGICAL MODE: OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS

Parshin Maxim Aleksandrovich 1, Kruglov Denis Anatolievich 2
1 Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Student of the Money and Credit Relations and Monetary Policy chair
2 Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Student of the State and Municipal Finance chair

Bibliographic link to the article:
Parshin M.A., Kruglov D.A. Russia's transition to the sixth technological order: opportunities and risks // Modern scientific research and innovations. 2014. No. 5. Part 2 [Electronic resource] .. 02.2020).

Characteristics of technological orders

Scientific and technological progress is the main engine for the development of the world economy. Its result is technological innovation, which leads to an increase in labor productivity, modernization of the means of production and the transformation of the current technological order.

In the economic science of the XXI century, the theory of technological structures, which is based on the concepts of the scientist-economist ND Kondratyev, is gaining more and more relevance. According to this theory, the scientific and technological revolution develops in waves by alternating technological orders in cycles of 50-70 years in length. Such cycles end with crises, followed by the transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.

The technological order has a complex internal structure. Its core is formed by industries in which the use of this type of energy is dominant. Currently, 5 industrial and 1 post-industrial technological cycle are known. The first way was formed in 1785 and was based on the energy of water. In 1830, the discovery of the energy of steam and coal took place, which marked the transition to the second technological order. The third wave of technical and economic transformations took place in 1890-1940. At this stage, there was an introduction into production electrical energy... The beginning of the fourth mode was laid in 1940, it was based on the energy of hydrocarbons, on the invention and application of the internal combustion engine. The fifth technological cycle began in 1990 and is projected to last until 2040. It is based on electronic and nuclear energy.

As it enters the fifth order and assimilates its basic capabilities, the world economy prepares to meet the first post-industrial order. According to theoretical calculations, the transition to it will take place in 2040, however, due to the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, it may occur earlier. The new “Kondratiev wave” will be based on nano- and biotechnology.

The transition of developed countries to the sixth order

The economy of a single country cannot belong to a single technological order. The percentage of belonging to the order in force at this stage of development determines the degree of development of the state's economy. At present, the economies of the USA, Japan and China are equipped with advanced technologies to the greatest extent. In the USA, for example, the share of the productive forces of the fourth technological order is 20%, the fifth - 60%, and about 5% falls on the sixth order.

The United States is among the first to enter the first post-industrial technology cycle. Important factors a stable and stable political system, an effective mechanism of economic growth and scientific and technological progress, as well as a dominant position in the system of international institutions have served for this. One of the top priorities public policy The United States is the promotion of scientific and technological progress, and fundamental achievements in the field of knowledge are officially recognized as the basis of economic growth. Funding for research and development work in the United States comes largely from own funds American corporations and firms, and the share of funds federal budget does not constitute even the third part.

Japan, a state that was destroyed about 70 years ago as a result of World War II, is currently the leader in world science and technology. According to the research company "Economist Intelligence Unit", Japan ranks first among the most developed innovative powers in the world, ahead of the United States and Switzerland. These achievements were facilitated by close cooperation of all areas of the innovation industry, in which the state, research institutes and business entities are involved. According to the forecast estimates of the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, during the period of the sixth technological order, Japan will achieve great results in the field of high-tech innovations, which will allow it to finally strengthen its leading position among competitors.

Russia's readiness formeeting a new way

It is too early to talk about the formation of the sixth technological order in Russia. The share of technologies of the fifth order is about 10% (in the most developed industries: the military-industrial complex and the aerospace industry), more than 50% of technologies belong to the fourth level, and almost a third to the third, which prevailed in developed countries in the 1920s. The lag of Russia in economic development from the leading countries of the world reaches 45-50 years. The complexity of the task facing Russian science and technology lies in the fact that for Russia to enter the number of states with the sixth technological order within the next 10 years, it “figuratively speaking, needs to jump over the stage - through the fifth order”.

Put by the President of Russia V.V. For Putin, the task of "creating a smart economy" determines the need for advanced development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. But the existing forms and methods of management, organization and financing of work are a big obstacle on the way to such a breakthrough. Only cardinal changes in these areas can stabilize the situation. But they are possible only if science stands out as an independent branch of the economy. The leading countries of the world have already come to this, and this allows them to possess a powerful scientific background and an active system of innovations. In Russia, dynamic innovative development is still only a strategic goal.

Russia's lagging behind in innovative development is also associated with the lack of a systemic legal framework governing the scientific sector. The imperfection of legislation is a great obstacle to the development of science. In 2005, the section "Fundamental Research and Assistance to Scientific and Technological Progress" was eliminated in the structure of the federal budget. Currently basic research are included in the section "National issues", and applied - in the section "National economy". Loss of connection between basic and applied research at the stage of creation financial plans indicates the ineffectiveness of the functioning of research activities. In addition, the Ministry of Education and Science, together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, is developing proposals only for the budget for basic research. The program part of investing in applied research under state programs is formed by the Ministry of Economic Development, the non-program part - by the Ministry of Finance, which refutes the principle of the unity of the technological chain.

According to V.V. Putin, the concept of socio-economic development of Russia "Strategy 2020" is designed to make Russia "the most attractive country for life by 2020." But the adoption of the draft coincided with the economic crisis, which made the guidelines outlined in the document unrealizable. At the end of 2010, the Prime Minister was instructed to update the strategy, but this issue remained unresolved due to many inherent contradictions.

An important role in the socio-economic development of Russia is played by research organizations operating on its territory, main task which is the improvement of state innovation system... These include OJSC Rusnano, OJSC Russian Venture Company, the Skolkovo Innovation Center and the Nanotechnological Society of Russia.

Prospects for the introduction of future technologies

The transition to the sixth technological order opens before humanity great opportunities... The synthesis of achievements in the main technological areas (bio- and nanotechnology, genetic engineering, membrane and quantum technologies, micromechanics, photonics, thermonuclear energy) can lead, for example, to the creation of a quantum computer or artificial intelligence. It is also possible to reach a fundamentally new level in the systems of government, society, and the economy.

More recently, self-propelled vehicles, self-driving aviation, various kinds of robots, whose intelligence develops like a human, belonged to the realm of fantasy, and any attempts to convince people that any physical work could soon be performed only with the help of thoughts caused them distrust. However, already at present, on the basis of scientific research of one of the most influential and well-known theoretical physicists of the 21st century, S.U. Hawking developed such revolutionary mechanisms as a self-driving car, a wheelchair, controlled by the power of thought. In addition, mechanisms that respond to movements without direct contact and much more are becoming widespread.

“Informatization leads to the redistribution of labor. We are striving to improve the quality of life of people. Everything will change: a machine will do hard work, a person will do smart work, ”notes general manager Russian representative office of the company "Cisco Systems" Pavel Betsis.

The need for a transition to the sixth technological order for Russia is predetermined by a number of factors, the most significant of which is the technological backwardness of the Russian economy. “Understand, we cannot catch up,” says Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences E. N. Kablov. It is necessary to make a sharp leap and reach a new level of development, using in the aggregate our own achievements and the experience of the world's leading powers.

Obstacles toentry into a new way

The transition of the state economy to a new structure is a long and multifaceted process and carries a lot of associated risks. "The threat to modern society is the division of people into those who have valuable information, who know how to handle new technologies and who do not have such skills."

An acute problem of the national economy is currently an unfavorable investment climate, which jeopardizes the financial support of innovative activities and the risk of losing investments in the venture business. Moreover, moreover, in connection with the increased risk of loss of investment in the development of technologies of the new order, the problem of mistrust of foreign investors is aggravated.

According to the theory of N.D. Kondratyev, the transition from one technological cycle to another is accompanied by a systemic crisis. Against the background of how the economy of our state went through previous crises (1998, 2008), it is advisable to assume that the coming crisis of the productive forces of the fifth order may become a big obstacle for Russia on the way to entering the sixth. The risk of untimely overcoming the crisis is of no small importance, since the strategic task of reducing the backlog of Russia in socio-economic development from the leading countries of the world is under threat.

Overcoming all obstacles standing in the way of innovative development opens up vast horizons for Russia. The country has sufficient potential for this, it only remains to use it effectively.