Stage 1 of the life cycle of a technological innovation. Let's analyze the concept of the innovation life cycle using the example of Apple. NOT elements of the innovation system

Life cycle innovation consists of an R&D phase, a technological development phase, a production stabilization phase and a sales decline phase.

In the initial phase, fundamental theoretical research, applied research and design and development are carried out. The result of their implementation is new knowledge and scientific ideas. It is they that form the potential of knowledge for innovation, which is an intellectual product, the market value of which is very difficult to assess. At this stage, the first sample is often made. new technology or other innovation, which is a form of expression of the information received, its illustration.

The main goals of the phase of technological development of production are its preparation for the implementation of the results of developments and the provision of the necessary conditions for this.

In the next phase, the stable production of specific types of products is carried out.

The final phase of the innovation life cycle includes a decrease in sales volumes and further supply of demand for products through the use of new technological solutions.

Thus, the innovation process, being part of the innovation life cycle, includes various stages - from research and development of a new technology and ending with bringing it to industrial implementation.

The final stage of the innovation process, associated with the development of large-scale production of new products, requires the reconstruction of production facilities, improvement of technology, personnel training, advertising activities, etc., which requires attracting investments. However, investments continue to be risky, as the market reaction at this stage is still unknown. Therefore, the marketing stage is very important, which forms the demand for new products, provides feedback with consumers of the manufactured product.

The higher the level of innovative potential of the enterprise, the more successfully it avoids possible crisis situations. The innovative potential of an enterprise is determined by both technical and managerial factors, which include:

- the previous level of production development;
- the state of the mechanism and control system;
- type and orientation of the organizational structure;
- trends in economic and innovation policy;
- understanding the need for various kinds of changes and the readiness of staff for them, etc.

A particular difficulty for an entrepreneur is the stage of selling a new product, that is, transferring it from a "donor" (supplier) to a "recipient" (consumer). Businessman-

A commodity manufacturer usually proceeds from two strategies of innovation "intrusion" into the market: "programmed implementation", which suggests that the consumer adapts to the new product, and "tailored implementation", which involves changing the product in accordance with the requirements of the consumer.

The transfer of an innovation to the consumer often involves teaching him how to handle the product. Therefore, manufacturers often undertake not only the training itself, but also the associated costs. At the same time, entrepreneurs organize training for their own traveling salesmen, which develops their ability to convince the consumer, various situational techniques of a psychodramatic nature are worked out in advance. The degree of diffusion of innovation (diffusion) determines the profitability of innovation. Therefore, the entrepreneur must take into account not only the economic and production conditions, but also the cultural and psychological differences of consumers from different countries and regions, as well as their gender and age characteristics. The commercial success of one innovation becomes the basis for subsequent innovations, while the "innovation fear" is a consequence of previous unsuccessful innovations, leading to a "psychological barrier" associated with the fear of losing status, bankruptcy, etc. to the innovative activities of employees of various job groups, to effectively use the specifics human factor production.

There are two main types of innovation strategy:

- adaptive, when the company uses innovation as a response to changes in market conditions in order to maintain its position in the market, that is, in order to survive;
- competitive, when innovation is used as a starting point for success, a means of gaining competitive advantage.

Making a decision on the implementation of an innovative project is preceded by a careful comparison of the estimated costs of its implementation (taking into account the assessment of technical and commercial risk) and the financial capabilities of the company, which is reflected in the business plan. Financial position of the company determines the possibility and efficiency of using borrowed money to innovate.

IN modern conditions an effective form of implementation of innovative activities is the management of capital invested in innovations, taking into account the peculiarities of the course of the innovation process.

Features of the innovation process create conditions for the mutual influence of innovation and investment cycles in the process of creating innovations, reducing their duration and the possibility of their interaction in order to minimize the volume of investment resources and optimal use of advanced funds and achieve a commercial effect from the implementation of an innovative product.

Innovation activity traditionally involves a sequence of investments, rather than the parallel investment of all or several stages of the innovation life cycle.

At the same time, the loss of the commercial effect of innovation is due to the fact that interruptions in financing are sometimes long-term, both customers and specialization of future industries change.

The theory of combining innovation and investment cycles is based on the following position: innovation is

the result of the activity. At each relatively independent stage innovation cycle a certain result may arise, which may become an independent commodity. However, the result of a particular stage of the innovation cycle appears in relation to the final innovative product only as its intermediate form, that is, an intermediate product.

Therefore, the investment policy of mastering an innovation can be focused on the final product and on the effective reproduction of innovation on any of the relatively

independent stages of the innovation process. Myself

the innovation cycle can be terminated if the investor sees the expediency of converting an intermediate result into a commodity (research methodology, technology know-how, etc.).

The above considerations can be formalized as follows. If the cash flow at stage t is denoted as S (m), then in the compared prices to the base point in time, it will be equal to:

S (t m, ti) = S (m) KjXK 2 x к 3

and the integral assessment for the entire innovation cycle

XS (t m, t,) = X S (m) k, x k 2 x k 3

where K! - coefficient taking into account the size of inflation at time t in, corresponding to the end of stage w; k 2 is a coefficient that takes into account the effect of risk at stage w; k 3 - coefficient taking into account the distribution cash flows at stage w.

These ratios are a function of not only the stage number, but also the period over which inflation, risk and depreciation of money "accumulate". Comparison of the values of cash flows at different stages and at the end of the innovation cycle allows the manufacturer of an innovative product to decide whether it is advisable to carry out all stages or to limit itself to work at specific stages.

An effective strategy of enterprise management is to increase the competitiveness of products, in particular, to "throw" innovation goods into the market. In this regard, within the framework marketing research the problem arises of comparing the assessment of an innovation product with prototype products in terms of price, functionality and satisfaction of the corresponding needs of potential buyers.

Financial support is the activity of attracting, distributing and using capital, as well as managing it in the risk capital market. Being part of innovation sphere, innovation capital mediates each stage of innovation. The most significant parts of the total national capital serving innovation activities are government capital, loan capital, investment in securities, venture capital, foreign capital, as well as equity business entities.

The scale of investment in the innovation sphere is different in different phases of the cycle. The development of basic investments, which requires large and payback in the long term investments, occurs during periods of recovery from the crisis and recovery. Since the propensity to accumulate and innovate during the crisis is weakening, the state directly (on the basis of budgetary investments) and indirectly (through the provision of economic benefits) supports innovative activity, contributing to the revival of the economy and enhancing its competitiveness. The scale of state support in the phases of recovery and stable development is decreasing, and the innovation process itself is carried out on a competitive basis. During this period, improving innovations prevail, requiring less investment and not associated with such a significant risk as in the case of basic innovations. This makes it possible to reduce the scale of state support for innovation. The level of innovation and investment activity is minimal in the crisis phase, when pseudo-innovations develop that do not require significant improvements.

There are two types of technological innovations: product and process innovations. New product introduction is defined as radical product innovation. Such innovations are based on fundamentally new technologies or on a combination of existing technologies in their new application. Product Improvement Incremental product innovation is associated with an existing product when its quality or cost characteristics change.

Process innovation is the development of new or significantly improved production methods and technologies, changes in equipment or production organization.

According to the degree of novelty, innovations are subdivided into fundamentally new, that is, having no analogues in the past both in domestic and foreign practice, and into innovations of relative novelty. Fundamentally new types of products, technologies and services have priority, absolute novelty and are original samples, on the basis of which they receive innovations, imitations, copies by replication. Among the innovations-imitations, there are equipment, technology and products of market novelty, new areas of application and innovations of comparative novelty (which have analogues in the best foreign and domestic enterprises) and innovations-improvements. In turn, innovations-improvements in the subject-content structure are subdivided into displacing, replacing, supplementing, improving, etc.

The life cycle of an innovation is a set of interrelated processes and stages of creating an innovation. The life cycle of an innovation is defined as the period of time from the birth of an idea to the discontinuation of an innovative product implemented on its basis. An innovation in its life cycle goes through a number of stages, including:

* inception, accompanied by the implementation of the required amount of research and development work, development and creation of an experimental batch of innovations;
* growth (industrial development with simultaneous product entry to the market);
* maturity (stage of serial or mass production and increase in sales);
* market saturation (maximum production and maximum sales);
* decline (curtailment of production and product withdrawal from the market). From the standpoint of innovation, it is advisable to distinguish both the life cycles of production and the life cycles of the circulation of innovation.

The life cycle of the production of an innovative product consists of the following stages

The first stage - innovation implementation - is the most time consuming and complex. It is here that the volume of expenses for the development of production and the release of an experimental batch of a new product is great. At the first stage, the technology is reproduced and improved, the regulations are being worked out production process... And it is at this stage that a high production cost is observed and capacity is not utilized.

The second stage - the stage of industrial development of production - is characterized by a slow and prolonged increase in production output.

The third stage - the stage of recovery - is characterized by a rapid increase in production, a significant increase in the utilization of production capacities, a well-functioning technological process and organization of production.

The fourth stage - the stage of maturity and stabilization - is characterized by stable rates of the highest production volumes and the maximum possible utilization of production capacities.

The fifth stage - the stage of withering or decline - is associated with a drop in capacity utilization, a curtailment of production of a given product and a sharp decrease in inventories down to zero.

The composition and structure of the life cycles of new technology and technology are closely related to the parameters of production development. So, for example, at the first stage of the life cycle of new equipment and technology, labor productivity is low, the cost of production decreases slowly, the profit of the enterprise increases slowly, or the economic profit is even negative. During the period of rapid growth in production, the cost of production is noticeably reduced, and the initial costs are recouped.

Frequent change of equipment and technology creates great difficulties and instability of production. During the period of transition to new equipment and the development of new technological processes, the efficiency indicators of all divisions of the enterprise decrease. That is why innovations in the field of technological processes and tools of labor should be accompanied by new forms of organization and management, operational, processor-based and detailed calculation. economic efficiency.

The lifecycle concept of innovation plays a very important role in determining both the maximum output, sales and profits, and the life cycle of a particular innovation. The analysis of the life cycle of new equipment and technologies is carried out in the following sequence, including:

1) determination of the total life cycle of products of a given family, generation over the entire history, in order to establish a stable value of the cycle of a given type of technology or technological process, including by stages; 2) determination of the distributions of the durations of life cycles and their stages around the central trend, since this is the basis for predicting the duration of the life cycles of a future innovation;
3) the development of a base for the strategy and tactics of production growth in accordance with the duration of the stages of the life cycles of new equipment and technology;
4) the distribution of the probabilities of the duration of the cycles of future samples and in proportion to it resources in the time of the next cycle;
5) a thorough analysis of the factors affecting the duration of past cycles, and extrapolation of the results to predict their impact on the life cycles of future products;
6) formalization of methods for collecting initial data and the use of econometric calculation models.

The method of analyzing the duration of life cycles allows you to give an answer about the dynamics of technical economic indicators production. First, it makes it possible to determine the period of production growth to the maximum, which is equivalent to the best trends in the leading indicators of economic efficiency: reduced costs, production costs, labor productivity, profitability. Secondly, it is necessary to establish the dependence of the growth of output with the extreme of technical and economic indicators and with the volume of sales, because, as a rule, they do not coincide. Thirdly, it is necessary to analyze the trends of changes in technical and economic indicators with a doubling of the volume of output, to give an answer: is there proportionality, inertia, the effect of delay, etc. It is clear from the above methodology that the study of the dynamics of the duration of the stages of life cycles depending on technical and economic indicators and sales volume is one of the most important modern methods of analyzing new equipment and technology.

The innovative activity of the enterprise for the development, implementation, development and commercialization of innovations includes:

* carrying out research and development work on the development of the idea of innovation, laboratory research, the manufacture of laboratory samples of new products, types of new technology, new designs and products;
* selection of the necessary types of raw materials and materials for the manufacture of new types of products;
* development of a technological process for the manufacture of new products;
* design, manufacture, testing and mastering of samples of new technology required for the manufacture of products; development and implementation of new organizational and management solutions aimed at implementing innovations;
* research, development or acquisition of the necessary information resources and information support of innovations;
* training, education, retraining and special methods of personnel selection required for R&D;
* Carrying out work or purchasing the necessary documentation for licensing, patenting, acquisition of know-how;
* organization and conduct of marketing research to promote innovation, etc. innovation product production innovation

The quality of the technological process is realized in its ability to create innovation. It is assessed both from the standpoint of technical and technological characteristics and by a system of economic indicators. The widely used technical-economic and functional-cost analysis methods make it possible to establish the relationship between the technical and economic indicators of processes and find an algorithm for the optimal functioning of production systems.

As follows from the above, a very important stage of innovation activity is the search for cardinal relationships and interdependencies between indicators of the technical level, the quality of applied innovations with the conditions of their production and operation and with economic efficiency. The fact is that it is impossible to solve the problem of quality and economic efficiency of new equipment and technology separately. It is most expedient to apply a generalized technical and economic model (or, in the simplest version, a block diagram), which reveals the impact of technical level indicators on generalizing technical and economic indicators: cost price, productivity, reduced costs, etc. For this, it is necessary at the very initial design stage innovations choose an alternative option:

1) optimal properties of the innovation with maximum economic efficiency, or
2) the most perfect level of innovation with satisfactory economic efficiency.

The beneficial effect of innovation, both in production and in operation, cannot always be estimated using cost estimates. Therefore, two criteria are used: the criterion of the minimum of reduced costs and the integral (generalizing) indicator of the quality of the innovation. If it is impossible to establish a quantitative functional relationship between partial quality indicators and reduced costs, then expert or statistical methods are used to determine the weighted average generalized innovation indicator, calculated as a weighted arithmetic average or as a weighted geometric average. The next step can be to establish the relationship between the value of the reduced costs and a generalizing indicator of the technical level of a product or process. The tool of this approach is correlation and regression modeling.

The proposed methodology uses both traditional regulatory approaches and the cost-effectiveness method. With the change in the economic situation during the transition to a market economy for the enterprise, there was a reorientation of the criteria for the technical and technological level and the economic efficiency of innovations. In the short term, the introduction of innovations worsens economic indicators, increases production costs, requires additional investment in the development of R&D.In addition, intensive innovation processes, including the introduction of new equipment and technology, violate stability, increase uncertainty and increase the risk of production activities. Moreover, innovations do not allow the full use of production resources, reduce the utilization of production capacities, can lead to underutilization of personnel, and mass layoffs.

On the one hand, the innovation activity of an enterprise is a system of consistently conducted production and commercial activities, where the quality of innovation depends entirely on the state and technical and organizational level of the production environment.

On the other hand, it is the market that acts as the decisive arbiter in the selection of innovations. He rejects top priority innovations if they do not meet the commercial benefits and competitive position of the enterprise. That is why technological innovations are subdivided into priority ones, important for the economic and technological security of the country, and into commercial innovations necessary for an enterprise in a transition to a market. Criteria for the technical level and effectiveness of new technologies must be adequate to the requirements of scientific and technical state policy, commercial feasibility, and the relevant sources of funding. So, for the indicators of profitability and financial stability of the enterprise, the new technology in more than half of the cases is undesirable. Moreover, the variability of technology in industries characterized by a long life cycle, capital-intensive and capital-intensive industries can cause irreparable damage if forecasting, implementation and operation are incorrect.

In science-intensive, progressive industries the opposite is true: it is technological “shifts and breakthroughs” and the introduction of new technologies that sharply increase the competitiveness of an enterprise and lead to maximization of profits in the long run. Moreover, since the beginning of the 90s. the competitive status of large companies is largely associated not only with new products, but also, to a greater extent, with the availability of the latest technologies in the company. This is the case with the flagships of the world economy, Sony, Panasonic, IB-Em, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, as well as the Russian Gazprom and Rosvooruzheniye, etc.

The given strategic technological factors reveal the dependence of the firm's market strategy on the characteristics of R&D and the technology used. Success requires such qualities of a new technology as adaptability, flexibility, the ability to be integrated into old production, opportunities for synergy, a clear R&D strategy and the availability of patents and technology licenses, highly qualified personnel, and adequate organizational and management structures. It is impossible to reduce all these concepts to any single indicators, therefore, in a market economy, the market is the arbiter and expert of the quality of technology, and the criterion for the entire variety of properties can only be economic efficiency.

The essence of the innovation process and its functions

The terms “innovation” and “innovation process” are not unambiguous, although they are close. This process is associated with the creation, development and dissemination of innovations.

Generally speaking, the innovation process is the process of transforming scientific knowledge into innovation, which can be represented as a sequential chain of events during which innovation matures from an idea to a specific product, technology or service and spreads in practical use. This process is not interrupted after implementation, since as it spreads, the innovation improves, becomes more effective, acquires properties previously unknown to the consumer. Thus, the innovation process is aimed at creating the products, technologies or services required by the market.

The following functions of the innovation process can be distinguished:

Cognitive (an increase in general knowledge);

Informational (distribution);

Research (targeted acquisition of knowledge in a specific area);

Conversion (improvement);

Economic (cost reduction);

Motivational (stimulating creativity);

Social and consumer (improvement of services);

Resource-saving.

It should be noted that the innovation process is cyclical, which demonstrates the chronological order of the emergence of innovations in various fields of technology.

The entire course of the innovation process should be monitored and adjusted based on information about the state of the innovation market: about the achievements of competitors, about the requests of potential consumers, etc. Based on this, a decision is made on the further development of the innovation process or on its termination.

Phases of the innovation life cycle (stages of the innovation process)

The "life cycle" of innovations expresses the forms and phases of their movement in the system of market conditions of competition.

As a rule, there are five main phases of the innovation life cycle (Fig. 1):

Source - 11

Figure 1 - Phases of the innovation life cycle

In the first phase of fundamental research, there is an identification, study and systematization of objective phenomena and patterns of development of nature and society. It should be noted that the impossibility to determine in advance the final result, the time and money spent on achieving it, the individual, unique nature of the study.

At the first stage, these works can be performed without regard to the tasks of their practical application (exploratory research). At the second stage (scientific and technical research), the selection of results suitable for practical implementation is carried out. This reveals the technical feasibility and economic feasibility, as well as the areas of their primary use.

Fundamental research is not directly aimed at creating specific innovations. Their results can be used for various, not always foreseeable goals, in different industries, for a long time.

Applied research is based on the results of fundamental research and includes the study of technical feasibility, socio-economic efficiency and ways of practical use of the results of fundamental research in a specific area (industry). Their products are industry information. Experimental work related to laboratory and semi-production tests is also carried out at this stage.

The organization of applied research is based on regulated procedures, which include four main stages:

Theoretical substantiation of the way and methods of developing applied problems, drawing up schemes and options for solving scientific and applied problems, mathematical and material models;

Development and approval of technical specifications, which include information preparation, predictive assessment of the significance, costs, results and effectiveness, etc. The scope of work, the composition of the performers, the estimate and the draft contract are determined;

Experimental stage (pilot test);

Generalization and evaluation of the results.

The product of applied research and development takes an independent subject form of invention, technical documentation, methods, has authorship, belongs to a certain physical or legal entity, is alienated from the labor process after its completion.

Development or design is manufacturing based on the results of applied research and experimental testing to create new or improved products, structures, processes and control systems.

Developments differ by type:

Design (creation of new products),

Technological,

Design and survey (for the construction or reconstruction of facilities),

Organizational (creation of new systems for organizing production, labor and management).

This phase includes the manufacture of the first samples of products or their original assemblies in order to test their quality and compliance terms of reference... Verification of the results of design and technological developments in one form or another is necessary for the subsequent reproduction of the innovation on a wider scale.

With regard to production, this phase begins with the primary development of innovations. It represents the implementation of the results of development into production, which involves the following procedure:

Individual production of new products required in single copies, development of serial production of new products, commissioning of new facilities, technological processes and control systems, practical use of new methods;

Achievement of the design capacity and design volume of the use of the innovation;

Achievement of the project social and economic efficiency of the innovation.

Mastering an innovation begins with a decision to prepare production for an innovation based on previous tests of prototypes or mathematical models, market analysis.

Production and technical development includes a set of such actions as the development of a technological and organizational project, prices, technical conditions, standards, norms, resource consumption rates, design and manufacture of tooling, order, manufacture and installation of new equipment, construction and installation work, as well as training, retraining and advanced training of personnel for the operation of the innovation.

Organizational and technical preparation of production is the most labor-intensive stage of implementation, because, in addition to organizational and technical measures, it includes training and retraining of personnel, providing consulting and implementation services. This stage ends with the manufacture and testing of the first industrial series or the commissioning of the facility, accepted by the relevant commission (customer).

Economic development ends with the achievement of the design capacity and economic indicators: material and energy consumption, labor productivity, cost, profitability, capital productivity. At this stage of development, additional work to eliminate the shortcomings identified in the process of production and technical development.

The economic development of innovations is largely determined by the level of organization of this process at the enterprise, the quality of human capital, the social climate - the creative atmosphere characteristic of a team of innovators. There is an activation of the human factor, the formation of the necessary (appropriate) climate of innovation. The goal is to shorten the implementation time and increase the scale of development. This is a laborious process.

Diffusion is the process by which innovations are transmitted through communication channels between members social system in time; it is the diffusion of an innovation that has already been mastered and used in new conditions or places of application.

Personnel training is carried out, business development plans are drawn up and implemented, taking into account the specifics of specific enterprises and the experience of using the innovation.

At this stage, additional developments take place, especially technological and organizational ones. And most importantly, the economic potential of the innovation turns into a real effect.

The consumption phase of the innovation life cycle is characterized by a gradual stabilization of costs and an increase in the effect, mainly due to an increase in the volume of use of the innovation. It is here that the main part of the actual effect of the innovation is realized.

Obsolescence completes the entire life cycle of an innovation. It starts from the moment the development of the next innovation, economic, environmental or social efficiency which makes its development rational.

The structure of the innovation process. Features and content of the stages of the innovation process. Life cycle of innovation. Functions of fundamental and applied research, design, production and use of innovations.

The innovation process is a systemic organized set of consistently carried out types of productive activity. From the point of view of the subject-effective content of the types of activity, the innovation process is divided into the following typical stages, each of which is characterized by a specific set of organizational, technical and economic operations.

o the emergence of an idea - awareness of the need for and the possibility of creating a scientific and technical or other type (organizational, economic) innovation;
o generation of alternative ideas on how to create it (formation of a "portfolio of ideas");
o organizing the selection of priority ideas;
o conducting research and development aimed at approbation (testing) of ideas;
o formation of a "portfolio" of research and development, carrying out work on the selection and distribution of resources between areas;
o carrying out research and development in selected areas;
o formation of a "portfolio" of development work and work on the selection and allocation of resources between projects of innovations;
o selection of projects of innovations for its development in production;
o creation of an industrial design of innovation and its development in production;
o serial production of the innovation and its distribution on the market;
o modernization of production and the innovation itself through local innovations aimed at improving consumer properties and reducing the cost of its production (reducing the cost of a unit of consumer properties);
o Exhaustion of technological capabilities of innovation and reduction of the scale of its application.

It is especially important at the first stages of developing an innovation to forecast the demand for a future product on the market and the likelihood of its commercial success. Therefore, it is no coincidence, as the practice of investment in innovation shows, that the costs of these works are commensurate with the costs of conducting research and development, experimental design work.

In innovation management, the concept of "life cycle" of innovations is used, which expresses the forms and phases of their movement in the system of market conditions of competition.

As a rule, there are five main phases of the innovation life cycle - the process of creation, commercialization and use of an innovation (Fig. 1):

Picture 1 -

Basic research.

This is the identification, study and systematization of objective phenomena and patterns of development of nature and society. The peculiarity of fundamental research as a creative process is the impossibility to determine in advance the final result, the time and money spent on its achievement, the individual, unique nature of the research.

The end result of fundamental research is the discovery of laws and patterns, categories and phenomena (effects), substantiation of theories, principles, etc., as well as ways of using them in practice. These results are embodied in publications, scientific reports and reports containing theories, hypotheses, formulas, models, systematized descriptions, as well as prototypes. At the first stage, these works can be performed without regard to the tasks of their practical application (exploratory research). At the second stage (scientific and technical research), the selection of results suitable for practical implementation is carried out. This reveals the technical feasibility and economic feasibility, as well as the areas of their primary use.

Fundamental research is not directly aimed at creating specific innovations. Their results can be used for various, not always foreseeable goals, in different industries, for a long (30-40 years) time. In relation to the process of creating, developing and mastering specific innovations, they act as an external structure (conditions) that determines long-term trends in scientific and technological development.

Applied research.

They are based on the results of fundamental research and include the study of technical feasibility, socio-economic efficiency and ways of practical use of the results of fundamental research in a specific area (industry). Their products are industry information: the creation of technological regulations, draft designs and preliminary designs, technical specifications and requirements, methods and standards, projects of enterprises and technology of the future, standard standards, as well as other scientific recommendations. Experimental work related to laboratory and semi-production tests is also carried out at this stage.

The organization of applied research based on the results of fundamental research, to a much greater extent than basic research, is based on regulated procedures, which include four main stages:

o theoretical substantiation of the way and methods of developing applied problems, drawing up schemes and options for solving scientific and applied problems, mathematical and material models;
o development and approval of terms of reference (TOR), which include information preparation, predictive assessment of the significance, costs, results and effectiveness, development of a program, methods and research scheme, including stages and assessment of the reliability of the research methodology. The scope of work, the composition of the performers, the estimate and the draft contract are determined;
o experimental stage (pilot test);
o generalization and evaluation of research results.

The technical and economic development of innovations at the stage of applied research involves obtaining the following results:

o development and justification of technical specifications;
o draft design;
o production of laboratory and prototypes (batches);
o creation working documentation for a prototype;
o design development (parts, assembly units, kits), design documents (drawings, specifications);
o conducting patent research and forming a patent form;
o organizational project for the introduction of innovations.

Applied research often begins after receiving the terms of reference for the development of an innovation based on the results of marketing and fundamental exploratory research. This stage usually includes the collection and processing of information about the results of fundamental research and the study of customer requests, forecasting the prospects for solving the problem, selection and comparison possible options this decision, conducting experiments and analyzing their results, formulating tasks and recommendations for developing an innovation.

The result of fundamental research often does not take a material-objective form, but is personified, embodied in the knowledge of specialists. Experience has shown that they cannot be classified and appropriated. At the same time, the product of applied research and development takes an independent substantive form of inventions, technical documentation, methods, has authorship, belongs to a certain individual or legal entity, is alienated from the labor process after its completion.

Development (design).

This is manufacturing based on the results of applied research and experimental verification of scientific and technical documentation for the creation of new or improved products, structures, processes and control systems. Developments differ by types: design (creation of new products), technological, design and survey (for the construction or reconstruction of facilities), organizational (creation of new systems for organizing production, labor and management).

This phase includes pilot production - the manufacture of the first samples of products or their original assemblies in order to test their quality and compliance with the technical specifications. Verification of the results of design and technological developments in one form or another is necessary for the subsequent reproduction of the innovation on a wider scale. For organizational innovation, experimental testing of innovation on a limited scale plays a similar role. Although the development and its experimental verification differ significantly in terms of their functional content, they mostly proceed in parallel over time.

The phases of applied research and development are often combined into one phase - research and development preproduction (R&D). R&D is carried out both in specialized laboratories, design bureaus, pilot plants, and in research and production departments of large firms. At this phase of the life cycle, innovation exists in the form of a project, prototype, utility model.

Production.

Primary (pioneer) mastering of innovations is the introduction of development results into production, which implies the following procedure:

o individual production of new products required in single copies, development of serial production of new products, commissioning of new facilities, technological processes and control systems, practical use of new methods;
o achievement of the design capacity and design volume of the use of the innovation;
o achievement of the project social and economic efficiency of the innovation.

In the first case, we are talking about technical development, in the second - about production and in the third - about economic development, in the process of which the final results of scientific and technological development are achieved.

Mastering an innovation begins with a decision to prepare production for an innovation based on previous tests of prototypes or mathematical models, market analysis.

Industrial and technical development includes the following set of actions:

o development of a technological and organizational project;
o development and approval (agreement) of prices, technical specifications, standards, norms, norms of resource consumption, etc .;
o design and manufacture of tooling;
o ordering, manufacturing and installation of new equipment;
o preparation of construction;
o construction and installation work;
o training, retraining and advanced training of personnel for the operation of the innovation;
o reorganization of the organization and remuneration. Organizational and technical preparation of production is the most labor-consuming stage of implementation, because, in addition to organizational and technical measures, it includes training and retraining of personnel, providing consulting and implementation services. This stage ends with the manufacture and testing of the first industrial series (industrial design) or the start-up (commissioning) of the facility, which is accepted by the relevant commission (customer).

Economic development ends with the achievement of the design capacity and economic indicators: material and energy consumption, labor productivity, cost, profitability, capital productivity. At this stage of development, additional work is carried out to eliminate the shortcomings identified in the process of production and technical development.

The diffusion of an innovation, or diffusion, is its economic development on a large scale in enterprises where it is effective. At the same time, information about the innovation is disseminated (through advertising), the corresponding documentation, new equipment, equipment, etc. are replicated.

Personnel training is carried out, business development plans are drawn up and implemented, taking into account the specifics of specific enterprises and the experience of using the innovation.

At this stage, additional developments take place, especially technological and organizational ones. And most importantly, at this stage, the economic potential of the innovation turns into a real effect.

Consumption.

This phase of the innovation life cycle is characterized by a gradual stabilization of costs and an increase in the effect, mainly due to an increase in the volume of use of the innovation. It is here that the main part of the actual effect of the innovation is realized.

Obsolescence completes the entire life cycle of an innovation. It begins from the moment the development of the next innovation is completed, the economic, environmental or social efficiency of which makes its development rational.

The evolutionary approach in the theory of innovation allows us to single out the category of the life cycle of innovations - depending on the type of innovation, the life cycle of a product, technology, organization.

Product innovation life cycle consists of four phases. On the first phase product research and development is underway. It ends with the transfer of the used technical documentation to the production units of industrial organizations. On the second phase there is a technological development of large-scale production of a new product. Both the first and especially the second phase are associated with significant risk investments, which are allocated on a repayable basis. The subsequent growth in the scale of production is accompanied by a decrease in production costs and an increase in profits. This makes it possible to recoup investments in the first and second phases of the product life cycle. Then comes third phase, a feature of which is the stabilization of production volumes. On the fourth phase there is a gradual decrease in production and sales volumes, the product is withdrawn from production and operation. In fig. 1.10 provides an enlarged diagram of the product innovation life cycle (including the innovation process).

The life cycle of technological innovation also consists of four phases. The first is associated with the emergence of innovations-processes and is carried out through a wide range of scientific research (R&D) of a technological profile. The second is assumes the development of new technological processes at the enterprise. On the third phase the spread and replication of the new technology with repeated repetition at other enterprises takes place. Fourth phase includes rutiization - application of technological processes in stable, constantly functioning elements of production systems of enterprises. Technological innovations improve product quality, reduce production costs and ensure sustainable consumer demand in the goods market.

Often, the dynamics of the life cycles of innovative products and technologies have significant differences from the typical schedule (see Fig. 1.10), which is determined by the specifics of the business idea underlying the commercialization of the innovation.

Rice. 1.10.

An evolutionary approach to research innovation processes also allows you to apply economic and mathematical models to describe their dynamics. In particular, the development of many processes in the economy, including at enterprises, is reflected logistic curve, which is a temporary or other dependence of the object parameters. The logistic curve is also called S-shaped because it resembles the letter 5, but is shifted to the right at the top and to the left at the bottom. With the help of the S-shaped curve, the processes of a sharp (abrupt) transition of the socio-economic system from one stable state to another, the processes of radical changes accompanying its innovative activity, the processes of the growth and development of crisis phenomena are modeled.

The logistic curve characterizes the stage of the innovation life cycle between the emergence of an idea (stage of origin) and the routinization of a product or technology (stage of maturity), i.e. the actual process of diffusion of innovation, or growth, which, strictly speaking, has the dynamics of uneven changes and breaks down into the following stages (Figure 1.11):

Rice. 1.11.

1) resistance to change. At this stage, innovation has a very limited distribution, the demand for new products and technologies has either not yet formed, or is limited to a very narrow segment, and useful properties (key technological parameters) change very little, since there is practically no competition on the market, and the supply is formed as usually small innovative enterprises with disabilities to develop products and technologies;
2) accelerated growth during which there is a sharp increase in the size of the market, new segments and needs are formed, which are met in an ever more perfect way; new enterprises appear on the market - a large and medium business are attracted significant funds for the development of products and technologies, which affects their significant improvement in their useful properties;
3) slowdown in growth, during which the development potential of the idea underlying the innovation process is exhausted, and the useful properties practically do not change. By this time, the market is already formed: segments have been identified and customer loyalty has been distributed, manufacturers have captured their market shares and their redistribution is carried out through mergers and acquisitions of competitors; investors gradually lose interest in product or technology development as industry returns decline to the level of non-innovative businesses.

The transitional process inherent in innovation and crisis phenomena has a beginning and an end, an initial and final state (points BUT and D in fig. 1.11). Vector AD reflects either the process of achieving the goal, or the development of the phenomenon.

The S-shaped logistic curve in relation to innovation processes reflects the development of a product or technology from the initial to the final state. Economically, it expresses the dependence of the result of innovative activity on the costs of achieving this result, which is universal. It is not affected by the parameters that are used to assess the development process and (or) forecast and monitor the dynamics of useful properties. As analyzed technological parameters (their values are reflected along the ordinate axis) can be used specifications a product or technology described in terms of its dynamics over time (for example, historical data on the dynamics of the ratio of brightness to power consumption for electric incandescent lamps or the efficiency of an internal combustion engine). But this curve can also be built on the basis of economic data, such as the dependence of cumulative income or profit, the number of consumers, sales in physical terms, etc. As an argument (abscissa), not only time series are used, but also other costs (for example, the amount of investments made, the number of employees in the industry, etc.).

The 5-shaped curve has two inflection points - IN and WITH (in them, the tangents to the curve are parallel to the development vector AD), which can be conditionally taken as the boundaries of the three stages of development already mentioned above: resistance to changes (the rate of development is slower than the average rate of change), accelerated growth (the rate of development exceeds the average rate of change) and deceleration of growth (the rate of development is below the average rate of change until development stops).

Resistance to changes caused by innovations manifests itself in the form of low rates of development in the first section of the S-shaped curve. It is due to objective and subjective factors. Objective factors include the unwillingness on the part of infrastructure organizations to serve the innovation process (for example, the lack of repair and maintenance services), the inertia of suppliers and contractors, the underdevelopment of sales channels, etc. etc. However, after the resistance was overcome, the development proceeds at an accelerated pace. As the innovation process develops, the potential for innovation decreases, which leads to a slowdown in dynamics. In the area of slowing growth, the S-shaped curve asymptotically approaches the natural limit, the presence of which is due to objective factors (for example, the laws of nature, market capacity, characteristics of consumer behavior, etc.).

To construct a 5-shaped curve, as a rule, use the following formula:

(1.1)

where p (t) - a parameter by which the level of technological development is assessed over time and the dynamics of the development process is described; L - natural limit for development, assessed by this parameter; t - time; α and β are the coefficients that determine the character of the 5-shaped curve (found from empirical data); e - base of the logarithm.

The following procedure is used to construct the logistic curve:

1. A technological parameter is established that best reflects the process of innovative development of a product or technology (their properties) from the point of view of the market and consumer needs. It should reflect the highest utility for the consumer, determine his choice in the market.
2. Statistics are collected on the dynamics of the development process (either for this innovation, or by analogy). In the first case, the curve is constructed to identify the stage of the development process and assess the proximity of the natural limit, and in the second, to predict the development process as a whole (timing, pace and scale).
3. The value of the natural limit is established based on the specifics of a particular developmental process.
4. Based on the statistics and the value of the natural limit, the values of the empirical coefficients a and p are found, after which the mathematical dependence is determined and a curve is constructed from it. Then it is analyzed to develop the most likely scenario. further development innovation process.

The logistic curve is used to characterize the development of various aspects of the organization's potential and its position in the external environment: describing the life cycles of demand, technology, goods, and even the organization itself.

The analysis of the 5-shaped curve allows us to answer the main questions related to forecasting innovative development, in particular, with the replacement of technology or the introduction of a new substitute product to the market (Figure 1.12).

If in moment of decision(development or revision of a technological strategy) the enterprise has the ability to master the production of a new product or switch to a new technology with significant technological advantages (S-shaped logistic curve of a substitute product (technology) No. 1, located above the original S-shaped curve), the solution is obvious and does not need additional justification. There is a so-called positive technological gap, which reflects the superiority of the new product (technology) over the existing one. The size of the technological gap (ΔP1 = R 1-P 0> 0) determines the motive for replacement: a new product (technology) is better than the original one and has significant potential for development.

Rice. 1.12. Determination of the moment of replacement of a product or technology (revision of a technological strategy) based on the analysis of S-shaped logistic curves

However, this situation is rare in practice. As a rule, at the early stages of the life cycle, a product or technology is inferior in its technological parameters to the existing ones (the beginning of the S-shaped logistic curve of the substitute product (technology) No. 2, located below the initial 5-shaped curve). A negative technological gap appears (ΔР2 = P 2 - R 0 < 0). В этом случае мотив принятия решения о замене товара или технологии изменяется. Если в момент принятия решения потенциал развития, основанный на оценке возможности дальнейшего улучшения технологического параметра, для исходного продукта (технологии) является небольшим (технологический параметр приближается в своему "естественному пределу"), а товар-заменитель (технология) № 2 только начинает выводиться на рынок и потому обладает более высоким потенциалом развития, то решение о замене товара (технологии) принимается на основе создаваемых возможностей будущего развития:

L 2-P 2>> L 0-P 0.

In some cases, when approaching the natural limit, the original product (technology) is still the only (no alternative) way to satisfy consumer needs: new products (technologies) do not exceed the original ones and have a low development potential. Then the decision taken is of a marketing nature and is based on the reorientation of consumers to other technological parameters, according to which the initial products (technologies) have not yet exhausted their development potential.

So, today, the potential for the development of microprocessors for personal computers (PCs) has practically exhausted itself in terms of their clock frequency: the natural limit in this area is determined by the biological limit of user perception, after which the average consumer simply does not notice the improvements. However, alternative Information Technology have not yet been brought to a practical level. Therefore, now the main parameters of a PC are not the speed and clock frequency of the processor, but the amount of RAM, bit width and other parameters that were not previously considered critical. Respectively, the marketing policy has also changed: acceptance is shifting to new opportunities provided by increasing the bit depth, RAM capacity, etc.

Logistic curves characterizing the dynamics of innovation processes, along with the concept of the life cycle of innovation and the wave theory, become tools not only for macroeconomic studies of the impact of innovation on economic growth, but also for the formation of a business development strategy in a market economy.