"Either talent or connections": why Russia will suffer from a shortage of creative professionals. "Either talent or connections": why Russia will suffer from a shortage of creative professionals From rules to independent decisions

noted

To compete in the new knowledge economy, Russia must dramatically increase the share of highly skilled people in the labor market.

By 2025, Russia may experience a huge - more than 10 million people - shortage of highly qualified personnel who not only received a higher education diploma at a university, but have real knowledge and competencies, the ability to apply them correctly, engage in analytical, creative work, capable of autonomous making decisions. We are talking about managers, doctors, engineers, analysts, etc.

According to the results of the study of the Russian labor market and human capital "Russia 2025: From Personnel to Talents", the only opportunity for the country to maintain competition in the global economy is to implement the scenario of advanced modernization - a qualitative change in the labor market and an increase in the share of highly qualified professionals. How to do this - in the TASS material based on research data.

From rules to independent decisions

The study was based on the system of the Danish researcher Jens Rasmussen - the distribution of all employees into three categories: "Rule", "Skill" and "Knowledge".

To category "Skill"- people engaged in technical routine work, making decisions within the framework of the rules (from the foreman to the hotel administrator, as well as the majority of economists and lawyers who are so fond of preparing Russian universities).

Today in Russia only 17% of the working population belongs to the "Knowledge" category. According to this indicator, our country is at a transitional stage between the economy of resources and the economy of knowledge, to which the leading countries such as Japan, USA, Germany, Singapore belong. They are characterized by a high level of income, developed digital economy, a high human development index, and the share of human resources in the "Knowledge" category (this is one of key indicators competitiveness of the country) exceeds 25%.

Why Russia does not have enough "Knowledge"

The reason is not a massive brain drain, as was the case in the 90s. It's about the gap between the skills that people get in college and the real needs of the economy. According to the study, 80% of the working-age population is not prepared to work in modern markets... This is the fault of the education system, and the principles of remuneration, and personal qualities.

98% of the country's population today gives preference to stability over growth opportunities; no enough high demand for knowledge. This happens, in particular, because the remuneration does not depend to a sufficient extent on the level of qualifications. For example, the gap between the earnings of a driver of the 2nd category and a doctor is only 17%; for comparison: in Brazil - 174%, in the USA - 261%. Russia has not yet created an environment for the development and self-realization of a person: 4.9 million Russians (this is 6.5% of workers) live in conditions of labor poverty (the salary is only enough for survival); educational institutions do not “hear” business. Education is often replaced by diploma. The system prepares mainly employees of the "Rule" category, and not "Knowledge" and does not build up a regular update of competencies after graduation from educational institution.

“If the existing structure of the labor market is preserved for another seven to ten years, Russia's lag behind the leading countries of the world economy risks becoming irreducible,” emphasizes Vladislav Butenko, one of the authors of the study, senior partner and managing director, chairman of BCG in Russia. - Systems approach to the development of human capital, the system of retraining and retraining, the transition to the logic of talent management, and not personnel - the only correct response to the challenges of the new time. "

Two scenarios for the development of the labor market in Russia

The first scenario, which the authors of the study talk about, is the basic one, or catch-up. It implies an increase in the total number of jobs by 2.2 million people. At the same time, 5.8 million jobs will appear in the Knowledge category, and 3.5 million jobs will disappear in the Rule and Skill categories.

This scenario will be able to contribute to the annual growth of the country's GDP at the world average level (3–3.5% per year).

The risk of this scenario is that private business will seriously outstrip the development of state structures and businessmen will lure the most talented candidates to themselves.

The second scenario is advanced modernization. It implies a more active role of the state and state-owned companies. In this scenario, they will need 4.7 million workers in the Knowledge category over the next eight years. A total of 10.5 million jobs will appear in Russia for highly qualified workers. The implementation of this scenario will give an additional 1.5% GDP growth per year compared to the baseline.

At the same time, 9.4 million people from the "Rule" and "Skill" categories will be unclaimed.

Risks of this scenario: an increase in unemployment, since the scenario assumes a massive layoff of personnel working according to outdated rules. This applies to both government organizations and private companies.

The country needs a lot of retraining, the research results say, that is, the transition of some specialists from the Rule and Skill categories to the Knowledge category.

Everything for Knowledge: Eight Steps to Competitiveness

Russia's new competitiveness will be determined by the ability to develop and implement a concept for the development of human capital, which would include not only education and training, but also issues of stimulating the demand for personnel in the "Knowledge" category, as well as creating an environment conducive to human development.

Researchers have identified eight main steps in the development of human capital in Russia. Among them:

employers with state participation must create competitive offers of working conditions for professionals in the "Knowledge" category; it is necessary to reduce ineffective “social employment” with the redistribution of the wage fund in favor of workers in the “Knowledge” category. And at the same time introduce a system for retraining redundant personnel from other categories; create favorable conditions for doing business in Russia, including stimulating the development of innovative small enterprises; the educational system must be rebuilt so that it prepares workers in the "Knowledge" category at a faster pace. And the focus of educational programs should be shifted from the development of subject knowledge and memorization of information to the development of personal and metasubject competencies; it is necessary to stimulate the flow of talent into the field of education; both the corporation and the employees themselves need to be reoriented towards the understanding that professional development and training should continue throughout life, and not end after graduation. A system of stimulating professional growth and obtaining new knowledge should be created.

About research

Research conducted by The Boston Consulting Group, Sberbank, charitable foundation Sberbank "Contribution to the Future", WorldSkills Russia and Global Education Futures (an international cooperation platform that brings together leaders of global education) based on an online survey among Russian employers, as well as detailed interviews with more than 90 senior executives of the largest Russian companies with more than 3.5 million people from 22 industries.

BCG - international company, specializing in management consulting, a leading consultant on business strategy. Established in 1963, it has a global network of more than 90 offices in 50 countries.

Anastasia Stepanova, Victor Dyatlikovich

On the same topic:

Text: Natalia Makarkina | ASI website editorial board

Russia 2025: from personnel to talents

At the end of October, TASS published short results Research “Russia 2025: From Human Resources to Talents”, conducted by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in collaboration with Sberbank, Sberbank's charitable foundation “Contribution to the Future”, WorldSkills Russia and Global Education Futures. The main result of the study was the conclusion that Russia will face a shortage of highly qualified personnel by 2025. The study is not fully available on the Internet, it will not be possible to download it, but after analyzing the published articles written on the basis of the research materials, it is possible to partially obtain the necessary information.

Research problem and methods

Research task- to assess the problems of the labor market that hinder the growth of the competitiveness of the Russian economy.

Research methods

• online survey among Russian employers. 280 companies operating in Russia were surveyed.
• expert interviews with representatives of the top management of the largest Russian companies with more than 3.5 million people. More than 90 companies from 22 industries participated.

Period of the survey- February-May 2017.

Research methodology

As far as can be understood from the description of the study, the specialties were divided into three categories: "Rule", "Skill" and "Knowledge", according to the methodology of Jens Rasmussen, a Danish researcher.

A comment... It was not possible to find a detailed description of Jens Rasmussen's technique on the Internet.

Initial data

There are very few initial data in the summary information presented in the TASS material. In the study, each of the theses is probably supported by the data obtained, but in the articles they are presented in fragmentary information.

The ratio of workers of various categories in the labor market in countries with different types of economy (% of total employed)

Based on this, the conclusion is drawn: "80% of the working-age population is not prepared to work in modern markets."

A comment: But even in the most developed economies there are a significant number of professions that do not require creativity and improvisation. If we follow this logic, even in Germany 70% of workers are not ready to work in modern markets.

Main reasons

1. Remuneration principles

• wages in Russia do not stimulate people to professions with high qualifications, as a result, there is no sufficiently high demand for knowledge, and the prestige of professions requiring complex training is low;

in Russia, the difference in wages for a driver and a doctor is only 20 percent, while in Germany it is 174 percent, in the United States - 261 percent, in Brazil - 172 percent.

1. Disadvantages of the education system,

• The education system does not train personnel for the knowledge economy;
• higher education “has lost quality, but has become universal” - from 1993 to 2015, the number of places in universities more than doubled, while the number of applicants fell by 36%;
• there is no system of post-graduate education. Regular updating of competencies after graduation from an educational institution is not organized;
• learning-by-doing is either formal or is aimed at “pinpointing the gaps in the education system”.

1. lack of environment for human development and self-realization

• 98 percent of employees would prefer stability rather than opportunity for growth;
• 4.9 million Russians (this is 6.5% of the employed) live in conditions of labor poverty (the salary is only enough for survival);
• In the Russian Federation, the costs of employers for training employees are ten times less than in Europe, and 15% of the working population and 1% of pensioners participate in it - versus 40% and 5%, respectively developed countries.

“The historically inherited structure of employment, the lion's share of which is large enterprises, maintains a balance of employment, and not a balance of competencies, remuneration does not depend to an adequate extent on the level of qualifications and competencies. Secondly, the fact that the education system does not prepare personnel for the knowledge economy, does not “hear” business. Nowadays, education is often replaced by "diploma". The third reason is the lack of an environment for human development and self-realization "

A comment: During the Soviet era, even workers were interested in raising their qualifications. The difference in wages between the 3rd and 6th grade was 100 - 150% (two to three times). Naturally, this was due to higher pay for more complex work. At the same time, the salaries of highly skilled workers were quite comparable to the salaries of candidates of science.

Enterprise problems

The articles provide only one question to assess the education challenges faced by enterprises.

Barriers to company development

As a result, 91% of employers note a lack of practical knowledge among graduates.

A comment: The main thing is not that. Now at the enterprises of the real sector there is an acute issue of the lack of highly qualified design engineers, technologists, and other specialists associated with the development of new products and production technologies.

Labor market development scenarios in Russia

The study suggests two scenarios:

1. Basic, or catch-up scenario.

• An increase in the total number of jobs by 2.2 million people.
• There will be 5.8 million jobs in the Knowledge category.
• 3.5 million jobs will disappear in the Rule and Skill categories.

Result. Annual growth of Russia's GDP at the level of the world average (3–3.5% per year).

Risks. Private business will seriously outstrip the development of state structures and businessmen will lure the most talented candidates to themselves.

The realization of this scenario “will probably prevent a recession in the economy,” but it means an increase in the gap with the leaders, since the structure of the labor market will not change significantly.

The state will "one way or another" provide 45% of employment, and " key feature that distinguishes state-owned companies from the rest "is either the absence of serious competition, or its very big limitation"

• More active role of the state and state-owned companies.
• Over the next 8 years, state-owned companies will need 4.7 million employees in the Knowledge category.
• In Russia, 10.5 million jobs will appear for highly qualified workers.
• 9.4 million people from the Rule and Skill categories will be unclaimed.

Result. Additional GDP growth of 1.5% per year compared to the baseline.

Risks: an increase in unemployment, as the scenario assumes a massive layoff of personnel working according to outdated rules. This also applies to government organizations and private companies.

"The retraining of personnel should either be entrusted to a business that has such competencies, or some new state instruments of mass retraining should be created, but again with the involvement of business."

conclusions

The country needs a lot of retraining, that is, the transition of some specialists from the Rule and Skill categories to the Knowledge category.

Eight main steps in the development of human capital in Russia

• employers with state participation must create competitive offers of working conditions for professionals in the "Knowledge" category;
• it is necessary to reduce ineffective “social employment” with the redistribution of the wage fund in favor of workers in the “Knowledge” category. And at the same time introduce a system for retraining redundant personnel from other categories;
• create favorable conditions for doing business in Russia, including stimulating the development of innovative small enterprises;
• the educational system must be rebuilt so that it prepares workers in the "Knowledge" category at a faster pace.
• The focus of educational programs must be shifted from the development of subject knowledge and memorization of information to the development of personal and metasubject competencies;
• need to stimulate the flow of talent into the education sector
• corporations and employees themselves need to be reoriented towards the understanding that professional development and training should continue throughout life, and not end after graduation.
• a system should be created to stimulate professional growth and acquire new knowledge.

“It is the ability to create, attract and retain holders of key competencies that will determine the new competitiveness of Russia. The key condition is the development and implementation of a concept for the development of human capital, which would include not only education and training, but also issues of stimulating the demand for personnel in the category of “knowledge”, as well as creating an environment favorable for human development ”

Used materials from sites.

In the Russian economy, there is no demand for skilled workers with higher education - no more than 17% of jobs require knowledge, broad outlook, analytical skills and creativity from people, says the report "Russia 2025: From Personnel to Talents." It was prepared by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in partnership with WorldSkills and Global Education Futures. The demand for labor remains primitive, 45% of jobs are in the state budget sector, the so-called social employment is encouraged, when even with a decrease in GDP, inefficient jobs remain.

Skills, rules, knowledge

BCG used the classification of Danish scientist Jens Rasmussen to estimate the workforce. All professions and specialties are divided into three categories: "skill" (basic skill level), "rule" (average) and "knowledge" (high).
"Skill": more than half of the tasks are typical mechanical, mainly physical labor. Examples: janitors, vendors, drivers, movers, security guards.
"Rule": more than half of the tasks are routine, technical work according to the given rules and instructions. Examples: locksmiths, accountants, nurses, office administrators.
"Knowledge": more than half of the tasks are analytical, creative, requiring a good education and long-term preparation. Examples: teachers, doctors, engineers, managers.

On the other hand, there is no one to train qualified personnel: 91% of employers note a lack of practical knowledge among university graduates, and a quarter of diploma holders get jobs that do not require their level of education, the report says. By 2025, the authors of the report predict, in Russia there may be a shortage of qualified personnel of 10 million people, and employers will have to retrain 10 million workers of other categories.

The problem is, according to Vladislav Butenko, a senior partner at BCG and one of the authors of the study, that people themselves are not very interested in choosing professions that require high qualifications and long training. Any job in the country costs about the same. For example, the difference in salary between a doctor and a driver in Russia is 20%, while in the USA it is 261%, and in Brazil it is 172%.

But what are employers doing now to encourage employees who don't really believe in the benefits of learning to improve their skills? Vedomosti interviewed a number of large companies that have established corporate universities or are investing substantial sums in corporate training.

How do they teach

At Russian Railways, the corporate university has existed since 2010 and over the past five years has trained 23,000 company executives in the basics of general management and the specifics of work in the railway industry, says Roman Baskin, director of the university. And in the NLMK industrial group, a corporate university will open in 2018, but the company trains employees according to personnel development programs. In 2016, about 90% of employees completed training, a total of 50,400 people, and NLMK spent $ 3.4 million on education, says a company representative. According to him, 37% of the educational budget was directed to the development of professional competencies, 22% - for certification in the field of industrial safety and targeted courses, another 17% - for the participation of employees in industry conferences.

At the Sibur petrochemical holding, says Natalya Yamshchikova, director of the corporate university, all employees of the company, from workers to senior management, undergo training. On average, each person has 40 full-time teaching hours per year. 70% of classes are held at the workplace, 20% of the time - in communication with mentors and 10% - on programs and trainings. The training plan for each employee is formed individually based on the results of regular assessment KPI execution and assessment of behavioral competencies (skills, abilities, character traits necessary for successful performance of work), explains Yamshchikova.

How is

However, study alone is not enough. It is very important that the company has a personnel appraisal system and a motivation system that would stimulate employees to learn and improve their qualifications, says Olga Celer, a consultant at the Korn Ferry Hay Group. Assessment should take place before and after training, Celer says. Only then will the company be able to understand what needs to be taught to a particular employee and what results he achieved after training.

According to Yamshchikova, at Sibur, workers are assessed according to specific indicators of their work in the shop, and the assessment also includes compliance with safety at work. It is more difficult to assess the leaders: here we are talking about the contribution to improving production efficiency, ensuring and developing a safety culture, self-development and training of subordinates, she admits.

Based on the results of evaluations, employees are divided into three categories: very effective, rather effective and insufficiently ineffective. For those whose career development needs to be adjusted according to the ranking results, the company draws up individual development plans with the inclusion of various educational courses. Employees who regularly fall into the category of ineffective are transferred to another area of ​​work or the company parted ways with them, says Yamshchikova.

If an employee has completed corporate training programs, this should directly or indirectly affect his income, says Celer. Western companies practice compulsory combination of training with promotion, when an employee can move to a higher job level only after training, she notes.

Most of Vedomosti's respondents found it difficult to answer the question of how the assessment and payment system encourages professional development; they either gave a general answer or declined to comment.

Study salary

Vedomosti found an example integrated approach to training, assessment, material encouragement and promotion of those employees who wish to improve their qualifications. Since 2013, Post Bank has had the Harvest Week assessment system, which encourages employees to learn, says Yulia Boroday, HR Director of the bank. The assessment is carried out twice a year, and 83% of the bank's more than 15,000 employees participate in it. An employee must work well for six months and at the same time take online courses on the bank's training portal, take online tests, and also attend full-time training. All bank employees are divided into four categories of professional skills. To get the first category, an employee needs to fulfill the sales plan by at least 80%, pass a test on knowledge of products and sales techniques, and also receive a sufficient assessment score from a direct supervisor. The allowances for raising the category can go up to 80% of the salary, 20% for each step, Boroday specifies.

Less taught

15% of the working population of Russia, according to BCG, participates in educational programs, in developed countries this share is much higher - 40%. According to Vladislav Butenko's estimates, Russian employers spend on average 10 times less on personnel training than western companies: 0.3% of the wage bill versus 3% in Germany

Galina Zagreba, financial expert of Post Bank of the first category from Rostov-on-Don, has gone through five “Harvest weeks”. According to her, the tests had to be taken hard, with problems with complex interest. Then her work was assessed by her immediate supervisor, and at the last stage it was taken into account how much she fulfilled the plans for issuing loans. Zagreb received the first category of professional excellence and a premium of 20%. According to her, every time an employee passes tests with the same result as the last time, he stays at the same level. To advance to the second category, you need to score more points and fulfill the plan by 90%. A promotion after the “Harvest Week,” says Borodai, usually gets 30-40% of employees, a demotion - 15-20%. Those participants who showed poor results undergo a special commission - they are either offered additional training or transferred to another position, says Borodai.

Implicit dependency

In the field of sales, the connection between training and remuneration is direct: I completed training, improved the result - I earned more money, says Alexander Safonov, vice-rector of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations. Therefore, such a scheme as in Post Bank encourages employees to study, Safonov said. In industry, the relationship between training, employee performance and income is much more difficult to identify, he notes.

What professions are more

According to BCG estimates, 35% of workers in Russia are categorized as “skill”. Germany 15%, UK 18%
48% of workers in Russia are categorized as “rule”. In Germany - 56%, in Great Britain - 37%
17% of workers in Russia are categorized as “knowledge”. In Germany - 29%, in Great Britain - 45%

According to PwC partner Mikhail Magrilov, the incentive system contributes to professional development only indirectly. It includes the indicators and goals that the employee achieves while performing current duties. And the expansion of responsibilities and inclusion in personnel reserve it is quite possible to tie it to the qualifications and education of the employee. The company should only describe the criteria, inform the employees about them - and immediately their attitude to professional development will change, Magrilov is sure.

Stanislav Tsyrlin, Vice President for Human Resources and Management System NLMK, says that there is no direct connection between study and salary in the company, however, a member of the personnel reserve must fulfill the established development plan, which includes training, and this, according to Tsyrlin, will affect both his career and his salary in the future. V Russian Railways According to Baskin, middle and senior managers go to study because their inclusion in the talent pool directly depends on their success at the corporate university. The company pays full tuition fees for programs similar to those of leading business schools, and employees appreciate this, says Baskin.

In the report “Russia 2025: From Human Resources to Talents,” the consulting company BCG assessed the possible consequences of the transformation of the Russian economy into a knowledge economy. Noting that the Russian Federation is already lagging behind the leading countries in terms of the share of skilled workers and that the situation will worsen with inertial development, the authors of the report admit that the education system in the Russian Federation cannot solve these problems without reforms. BCG is calling for the creation of 9.2 million jobs for these employees through public and private companies, while preparing to retrain the 11.6 million people who will be freed up during the transition to the knowledge economy.

The international consulting company Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has prepared a report "Russia 2025: From Human Resources to Talents" scripting the transition of the Russian Federation to the knowledge economy. In the report, the employed are conditionally divided into three categories - "Skill" (mainly manual labor), "Rule" (routine technical work requiring special training) and "Knowledge" (analytics, creativity, work in conditions of uncertainty, requiring education). In the economies of advanced countries, jobs in the "Knowledge" category are already at least 25%, in the Russian Federation - not more than 17% so far, and the prospects for competition here look disappointing. The reason is the lack of massive demand for knowledge due to the resource-based model of the economy, in which the demand for labor remains primitive, the state dominates among employers and the model of "social employment" is being implemented - the preservation of inefficient jobs even with a decrease in GDP. Because of this, the share of small and medium-sized businesses is low (16%), the digital economy (2-2.5%) and advanced markets are stagnating.

The education system does not prepare personnel for the knowledge economy, its school segment is weakly susceptible to changes, and higher education “has lost quality, but has become universal” - from 1993 to 2015, the number of places in universities more than doubled, while the number of applicants fell by 36%. As a result, 91% of employers note a lack of practical knowledge among graduates. Employed people, because of low wages, often work in conditions of "labor poverty", and the fact that "any job in the country costs about the same" (the difference in wages of a driver and a doctor in the Russian Federation is 20%, in the USA - 261%), reduces the motivation of people to choose qualified professions. Education most often ends with graduation from the university - no later than 25 years. Learning in the process of work is either formal, or aimed at “spot closing the gaps in the education system”. In the Russian Federation, employers' expenses for employee training are ten times less than in Europe, and 15% of the working population and 1% of pensioners participate in it, versus 40% and 5%, respectively, in developed countries. Without removing these restrictions, the Russian Federation will not come close to the advanced countries - and may lose its position in the sector of countries moving from a resource economy to a knowledge economy: employers planning large-scale projects already cite the lack of qualified personnel as the main obstacle on this path.

BCG is considering two scenarios for the development of human capital in the Russian Federation by 2025. The catch-up is based on the current plans of employers: in the conditions of the release of 8.6 million workers in the "Skill" and "Rule" categories with a shortage of 5.8 million employees in the "Knowledge" category, the structure of the labor market in the Russian Federation will de facto be mothballed: 23% - "old" private companies, the share of "agents of change" - flexible, quickly adapting companies - not more than 32%.

The forward-looking scenario implies a more active role for the public sector in transforming this market. It assumes the creation by 2025 of a demand for 4.5 million new employees in the "Knowledge" category by private employers and 4.7 million - by companies with state participation and government agencies. However, the authors call state demand "dormant" - hiring there is planned for no more than a year, and its expansion will require a powerful reform of the management system.

BCG proposes to form such a proposal through retraining within the country or through foreign specialists and the return of qualified emigrants. But the increase in the number of jobs in the "Knowledge" category will be accompanied by an accelerated reduction in employment in other categories - 6.4 million people in the "Rule" category and 5.2 million people in the "Skill" category. Taking into account the retirement of workers (3.5 million people until 2025), 6.5 million workers will have to be optimized, the report says. This is also meeting the demand for workers in the “Knowledge” category - “the most difficult task, requiring a clear plan and a change in the context in which companies, employees and the state live,” notes BCG. Its solution can give the Russian economy an additional 1.5% of GDP per year, or 10 trillion rubles. at current prices, by 2025.